And now, Pre-Convention rankings for the House contests

Given the nature of the two-vote elections in the House, trying to handicap the House races can be more problematic, but in taking the most base-level glimpse at the races (again, based on factors such as Name ID, district composition, how well they campaign), the GOP still looks incredibly strong in the house.

What could the problem areas be for Democrats? Everywhere except their safe districts (1, 15,  Julie Bartling & Spence Hawley’s seats, and assorted reservation counties).

Republicans have a few areas to keep an eye on. Watertown could be a sleeper for the Dems. With two new candidates, District 9 needs to have particular attention paid to it. District 16 will also be a trouble spot with Tornberg giving it another go.

District 22 might need attention from the party, and just like in the State Senate Race, District 25 will be a hotspot.

Hunt should be fine, but former Senator Ahlers versus newcomer Tom Pischke will be a fight, and deserving of extra efforts from the GOP. Tom has won his first contest, a primary, so don’t sell him short – he’s a strong competitor. Vigilance is the word of the day in this case.

Otherwise….

District

Race

Name

Party

Power Rating

Notes

District 01

State Representative

Steven D. McCleerey

DEM

Dem Over

 

District 01

State Representative

Susan Wismer

DEM

Dem Over

District 02

State Representative

John Graham

DEM

 

Graham against 2
incumbents. GOP should do well.

District 02

State Representative

Lana Greenfield

REP

Strong GOP

District 02

State Representative

Burt Tulson

REP

Strong GOP

District 03

State Representative

Nikki Bootz

DEM

 

Kaiser will win, and Dennert likely to as well. Dems not expected to run
competent campaigns.

District 03

State Representative

Brooks Briscoe

DEM

 

District 03

State Representative

Drew Dennert

REP

Lean GOP

District 03

State Representative

Daniel Kaiser

REP

Strong GOP

District 04

State Representative

Matt Rosdahl

DEM

 

Mills and Kettwig are new, but Scheuelke
has never been a good campaigner.

District 04

State Representative

Peggy Schuelke

DEM

 

District 04

State Representative

John Mills

REP

Lean GOP

District 04

State Representative

Jason W. Kettwig

REP

Lean GOP

District 05

State Representative

Michele Alvine

DEM

 

Alvine could prove to be trouble, but that would require Watertown to
move back to Dem Territory.

District 05

State Representative

Alanna Silvis

DEM

 

District 05

State Representative

Charles “Chuck”
Haan

IND

 

District 05

State Representative

Hugh M. Bartels

REP

Lean GOP

District 05

State Representative

Nancy York

REP

Lean GOP

District 06

State Representative

Clara Hart

DEM

 

Latterell and Otten will win. This is not a
contest.

District 06

State Representative

Kyle Rogers

DEM

 

District 06

State Representative

Isaac Latterell

REP

Strong GOP

District 06

State Representative

Herman Otten

REP

Strong GOP

District 07

State Representative

Linda A. Brandt

DEM

 

Reed will win, and Hawley
will win. It’s the Brookings way for the State’s biggest swing district.

District 07

State Representative

Spencer Hawley

DEM

Strong Dem

District 07

State Representative

Tim Reed

REP

Strong GOP

District 08

State Representative

Kory Rawstern

DEM

 

Incumbents should do
fine, but calling it leaning because of the Heavy D vote in Moody Co.

District 08

State Representative

Jason Unger

DEM

 

District 08

State Representative

Leslie Heinemann

REP

Lean GOP

District 08

State Representative

Mathew Wollmann

REP

Lean GOP

District 09

State Representative

Mark G. Guthmiller

DEM

 

This is on the edge of
being a toss-up district. Candidates will have good mentoring & support,
but they’re going to need to work. It won’t be handed to them.

District 09

State Representative

Michael Saba

DEM

 

District 09

State Representative

Michael Clark

REP

Lean GOP

District 09

State Representative

Wayne H. Steinhauer

REP

Lean GOP

District 10

State Representative

Dean Kurtz

DEM

 

This District will remain
strong GOP.

District 10

State Representative

Paul Vanderlinde

DEM

 

District 10

State Representative

Don Haggar

REP

Strong GOP

District 10

State Representative

Steven Haugaard

REP

Strong GOP

District 11

State Representative

Mary Claus

DEM

 

At this point in time, no
reason to believe GOP won’t run strong.

District 11

State Representative

Paul Schipper

DEM

 

District 11

State Representative

Chris Karr

REP

Strong GOP

District 11

State Representative

Mark K Willadsen

REP

Strong GOP

District 12

State Representative

Bob Benson

DEM

 

Beal & Jamison. This
race is practically over.

District 12

State Representative

Betsy Lang

DEM

 

District 12

State Representative

Arch Beal

REP

Strong GOP

District 12

State Representative

Greg Jamison

REP

Strong GOP

District 13

State Representative

P. James Eckhoff Jr

DEM

 

Mickelson & Westra
will crush their opponents.

District 13

State Representative

Ellee Spawn

DEM

 

District 13

State Representative

G. Mark Mickelson

REP

Strong GOP

District 13

State Representative

Steve Westra

REP

Strong GOP

District 14

State Representative

Valerie Loudenback

DEM

 

LaPlante was a good substitution, but Holmes & Zikmund
are good campaigners. Advantage GOP.

District 14

State Representative

Michael LaPlante

DEM

 

District 14

State Representative

Tom Holmes

REP

Strong GOP

District 14

State Representative

Larry P. Zikmund

REP

Strong GOP

District 15

State Representative

Jamie Smith

DEM

 

Soli is solid in this
race, but this might be the year of the Indy in that District. Leggett has
had a go around before, and ready to go this year.
Not Myers, who is nutty & off-putting.

District 15

State Representative

Karen Soli

DEM

Lean Dem

District 15

State Representative

Eric Leggett

IND

Lean Indy1

District 15

State Representative

Mike Myers

IND

 

District 16

State Representative

Ted Curry

DEM

 

Anderson has name ID, but
with Tornberg in the race, that puts significant
State Dem resources behind this race. Could be Dem sleeper, but Jensen will
be aggressive.

District 16

State Representative

Ann Tornberg

DEM

Possible Toss Up

District 16

State Representative

Kevin D. Jensen

REP

Lean GOP/Toss Up

District 16

State Representative

David L. Anderson

REP

Lean GOP

District 17

State Representative

Ray Ring

DEM

Lean Dem

The incumbents will be
tough to beat.

District 17

State Representative

Mark Winegar

DEM

 

District 17

State Representative

Debbie Pease

REP

 

District 17

State Representative

Nancy Rasmussen

REP

Lean GOP

District 18

State Representative

David Allen

DEM

 

Hunhoff & Stevens will dominate the race.

District 18

State Representative

Peter Rossiter

DEM

 

District 18

State Representative

Jean M. Hunhoff

REP

Strong GOP

District 18

State Representative

Mike Stevens

REP

Strong GOP

District 19

State Representative

Ardon Wek

DEM

 

Is there a race? Peterson
& Schoenfish already have this won.

District 19

State Representative

Kent S. Peterson

REP

Strong GOP

District 19

State Representative

Kyle Schoenfish

REP

Strong GOP

District 20

State Representative

Lance Carson

REP

GOP Over

 

District 20

State Representative

Tona Rozum

REP

GOP Over

District 21

State Representative

Juile Bartling

DEM

Strong Dem

Another one for each
party here. Even the Republicans like Julie (possibly because she votes with
them on many issues).

District 21

State Representative

Gary Burrus

DEM

 

District 21

State Representative

Lee Qualm

REP

Strong GOP

District 22

State Representative

Carmen Dannenbring

DEM

Toss Up

A pack of new candidates.
This could be a wild ride.

District 22

State Representative

Joan Wollschlager

DEM

Toss Up

District 22

State Representative

Roger Chase

REP

Toss Up

District 22

State Representative

Bob Glanzer

REP

Toss Up

District 23

State Representative

John A. Lake

REP

GOP Over

 

District 23

State Representative

Spencer Gosch

REP

GOP Over

District 24

State Representative

Mary Duvall

REP

GOP Over

 

District 24

State Representative

Tim Rounds

REP

GOP Over

District 25

State Representative

David Haagenson

DEM

 

District 25 is going to
be a toss-up just like the Senate. Hunt has strong name ID. Ahlers and Pischke are going to
slug it out for 2nd place.

District 25

State Representative

Dan Ahlers

DEM

Toss Up

District 25

State Representative

Roger Hunt

REP

Strong GOP

District 25

State Representative

Tom Pischke

REP

Toss Up

District 26A

State Representative

Shawn Bordeaux

DEM

Dem Over

 

District 26B

State Representative

James Schaefer

REP

GOP Over

 

District 27

State Representative

Jim Bradford

DEM

Lean Dem

I have no idea how Liz
May wins in that heavy Dem District, but she does. I’d give it to her and
Bradford if I were to guess today.

District 27

State Representative

Red Dawn Foster

DEM

 

District 27

State Representative

Steve Livermont

REP

 

District 27

State Representative

Elizabeth May

REP

Lean GOP

District 28A

State Representative

Oren Lesmeister

DEM

Dem Over

 

District 28B

State Representative

Sam Marty

REP

GOP Over

 

District 29

State Representative

Thomas J. Brunner

REP

GOP Over

 

District 29

State Representative

Larry Rhoden

REP

GOP Over

District 30

State Representative

Sandy Arseneault

DEM

 

Dems are not elected in
this District, but the county extension officer might give you a dollar for
each tail you bring in. This race is over.

District 30

State Representative

Kristine Ina Winter

DEM

 

District 30

State Representative

Julie Frye-Mueller

REP

Strong GOP

District 30

State Representative

Tim R. Goodwin

REP

Strong GOP

District 31

State Representative

Timothy R. Johns

REP

GOP Over

 

District 31

State Representative

Charles M. Turbiville

REP

GOP Over

District 32

State Representative

Nik Aberle

DEM

 

This race is over.

District 32

State Representative

Susan Kelts

DEM

 

District 32

State Representative

Sean McPherson

REP

Strong GOP

District 32

State Representative

Kristin A. Conzet

REP

Strong GOP

District 33

State Representative

Jim Hadd

DEM

 

This race is over.

District 33

State Representative

Ethan Marsland

DEM

 

District 33

State Representative

Taffy Howard

REP

Strong GOP

District 33

State Representative

David Johnson

REP

Strong GOP

District 34

State Representative

Steve Stenson

DEM

 

This race is over.

District 34

State Representative

Dan Dryden

REP

Strong GOP

District 34

State Representative

Craig Tieszen

REP

Strong GOP

District 35

State Representative

Dave Freytag

DEM

 

This race is over.

District 35

State Representative

Michael T Hanson

DEM

 

District 35

State Representative

Blaine “Chip”
Campbell

REP

Strong GOP

District 35

State Representative

Lynne DiSanto

REP

Strong GOP

(Note – if I left out any other Indy’s, which I think I may have, I’ll have them in the next list. -PP)

By my reckoning, I’ve got 56 of these seats going for the GOP,  9 Going Dem, 1 Indy, leaving 4 seats that could be tossups – 1 in District 16, 2 in 22, and 1 in District 25.

And that looks just fine for the SDGOP.

5 thoughts on “And now, Pre-Convention rankings for the House contests

  1. Cliff Hadley

    Not sold on District 22 being a tossup. Both Glanzer and Chase are well-known throughout Beadle and Kingsbury counties, both in town and on the farm.They’re liked and respected. Dannenbring and Wollschlager will do well and likely carry Kingsbury, but I don’t see them finding enough votes in Beadle. A 2-point win for both GOP candidates.

  2. Anon from 4

    You are soft-pedaling in 4. The reality of District 4 is it is strong GOP. Kettwig is a well known long-time businessman and city administrator in Milbank, the district’s largest community. He is well-spoken, approachable leader from the community who is also a Lt. Col, in the National Guard. Historically, a strong showing in Milbank clinches the district. John Mills, the other GOP candidate is from the second largest community, Volga, in the southern part of the district. Mills is a long-time businessman throughout Brookings County. He is well-known, well-liked, and has good name recognition. The liberal opposition have a large uphill battle. Schulke, is a quiet, poorly spoken nurse from the tiny town of Revillo. She ran two years and came in last place in a four-way field. Rosdahl is regarded by many in the Clear Lake community as an adequate but not the brightest teacher/coach in the school. In past elections the district has gone both R and D (think Val Rausch and Kathy Tyler), but has been significantly influenced by geography. Currently, the percentage of registered Rs is at an all-time high. For all these reasons, I see a strong GOP win in District 4.

    1. Pat Powers Post author

      Keep in mind this is a snapshot at this point in time. And I base it on Name ID, district composition, & how well they campaign.

      I agree, they’re both rock solid candidates. But no one has really started campaigning yet, and as you note, District 4 picks a D every once in a while.

      That’s why I have it tagged as leaning GOP, and not strong GOP.