And now, Pre-Convention rankings for the House contests

Given the nature of the two-vote elections in the House, trying to handicap the House races can be more problematic, but in taking the most base-level glimpse at the races (again, based on factors such as Name ID, district composition, how well they campaign), the GOP still looks incredibly strong in the house.

What could the problem areas be for Democrats? Everywhere except their safe districts (1, 15, Julie Bartling & Spence Hawley’s seats, and assorted reservation counties).

Republicans have a few areas to keep an eye on. Watertown could be a sleeper for the Dems. With two new candidates, District 9 needs to have particular attention paid to it. District 16 will also be a trouble spot with Tornberg giving it another go.

District 22 might need attention from the party, and just like in the State Senate Race, District 25 will be a hotspot.

Hunt should be fine, but former Senator Ahlers versus newcomer Tom Pischke will be a fight, and deserving of extra efforts from the GOP. Tom has won his first contest, a primary, so don’t sell him short – he’s a strong competitor. Vigilance is the word of the day in this case.

Otherwise….

District	Race	Name	Party	Power Rating	Notes
District 01	State Representative	Steven D. McCleerey	DEM	Dem Over
District 01	State Representative	Susan Wismer	DEM	Dem Over
District 02	State Representative	John Graham	DEM		Graham against 2 incumbents. GOP should do well.
District 02	State Representative	Lana Greenfield	REP	Strong GOP
District 02	State Representative	Burt Tulson	REP	Strong GOP
District 03	State Representative	Nikki Bootz	DEM		Kaiser will win, and Dennert likely to as well. Dems not expected to run competent campaigns.
District 03	State Representative	Brooks Briscoe	DEM
District 03	State Representative	Drew Dennert	REP	Lean GOP
District 03	State Representative	Daniel Kaiser	REP	Strong GOP
District 04	State Representative	Matt Rosdahl	DEM		Mills and Kettwig are new, but Scheuelke has never been a good campaigner.
District 04	State Representative	Peggy Schuelke	DEM
District 04	State Representative	John Mills	REP	Lean GOP
District 04	State Representative	Jason W. Kettwig	REP	Lean GOP
District 05	State Representative	Michele Alvine	DEM		Alvine could prove to be trouble, but that would require Watertown to move back to Dem Territory.
District 05	State Representative	Alanna Silvis	DEM
District 05	State Representative	Charles “Chuck” Haan	IND
District 05	State Representative	Hugh M. Bartels	REP	Lean GOP
District 05	State Representative	Nancy York	REP	Lean GOP
District 06	State Representative	Clara Hart	DEM		Latterell and Otten will win. This is not a contest.
District 06	State Representative	Kyle Rogers	DEM
District 06	State Representative	Isaac Latterell	REP	Strong GOP
District 06	State Representative	Herman Otten	REP	Strong GOP
District 07	State Representative	Linda A. Brandt	DEM		Reed will win, and Hawley will win. It’s the Brookings way for the State’s biggest swing district.
District 07	State Representative	Spencer Hawley	DEM	Strong Dem
District 07	State Representative	Tim Reed	REP	Strong GOP
District 08	State Representative	Kory Rawstern	DEM		Incumbents should do fine, but calling it leaning because of the Heavy D vote in Moody Co.
District 08	State Representative	Jason Unger	DEM
District 08	State Representative	Leslie Heinemann	REP	Lean GOP
District 08	State Representative	Mathew Wollmann	REP	Lean GOP
District 09	State Representative	Mark G. Guthmiller	DEM		This is on the edge of being a toss-up district. Candidates will have good mentoring & support, but they’re going to need to work. It won’t be handed to them.
District 09	State Representative	Michael Saba	DEM
District 09	State Representative	Michael Clark	REP	Lean GOP
District 09	State Representative	Wayne H. Steinhauer	REP	Lean GOP
District 10	State Representative	Dean Kurtz	DEM		This District will remain strong GOP.
District 10	State Representative	Paul Vanderlinde	DEM
District 10	State Representative	Don Haggar	REP	Strong GOP
District 10	State Representative	Steven Haugaard	REP	Strong GOP
District 11	State Representative	Mary Claus	DEM		At this point in time, no reason to believe GOP won’t run strong.
District 11	State Representative	Paul Schipper	DEM
District 11	State Representative	Chris Karr	REP	Strong GOP
District 11	State Representative	Mark K Willadsen	REP	Strong GOP
District 12	State Representative	Bob Benson	DEM		Beal & Jamison. This race is practically over.
District 12	State Representative	Betsy Lang	DEM
District 12	State Representative	Arch Beal	REP	Strong GOP
District 12	State Representative	Greg Jamison	REP	Strong GOP
District 13	State Representative	P. James Eckhoff Jr	DEM		Mickelson & Westra will crush their opponents.
District 13	State Representative	Ellee Spawn	DEM
District 13	State Representative	G. Mark Mickelson	REP	Strong GOP
District 13	State Representative	Steve Westra	REP	Strong GOP
District 14	State Representative	Valerie Loudenback	DEM		LaPlante was a good substitution, but Holmes & Zikmund are good campaigners. Advantage GOP.
District 14	State Representative	Michael LaPlante	DEM
District 14	State Representative	Tom Holmes	REP	Strong GOP
District 14	State Representative	Larry P. Zikmund	REP	Strong GOP
District 15	State Representative	Jamie Smith	DEM		Soli is solid in this race, but this might be the year of the Indy in that District. Leggett has had a go around before, and ready to go this year. Not Myers, who is nutty & off-putting.
District 15	State Representative	Karen Soli	DEM	Lean Dem
District 15	State Representative	Eric Leggett	IND	Lean Indy1
District 15	State Representative	Mike Myers	IND
District 16	State Representative	Ted Curry	DEM		Anderson has name ID, but with Tornberg in the race, that puts significant State Dem resources behind this race. Could be Dem sleeper, but Jensen will be aggressive.
District 16	State Representative	Ann Tornberg	DEM	Possible Toss Up
District 16	State Representative	Kevin D. Jensen	REP	Lean GOP/Toss Up
District 16	State Representative	David L. Anderson	REP	Lean GOP
District 17	State Representative	Ray Ring	DEM	Lean Dem	The incumbents will be tough to beat.
District 17	State Representative	Mark Winegar	DEM
District 17	State Representative	Debbie Pease	REP
District 17	State Representative	Nancy Rasmussen	REP	Lean GOP
District 18	State Representative	David Allen	DEM		Hunhoff & Stevens will dominate the race.
District 18	State Representative	Peter Rossiter	DEM
District 18	State Representative	Jean M. Hunhoff	REP	Strong GOP
District 18	State Representative	Mike Stevens	REP	Strong GOP
District 19	State Representative	Ardon Wek	DEM		Is there a race? Peterson & Schoenfish already have this won.
District 19	State Representative	Kent S. Peterson	REP	Strong GOP
District 19	State Representative	Kyle Schoenfish	REP	Strong GOP
District 20	State Representative	Lance Carson	REP	GOP Over
District 20	State Representative	Tona Rozum	REP	GOP Over
District 21	State Representative	Juile Bartling	DEM	Strong Dem	Another one for each party here. Even the Republicans like Julie (possibly because she votes with them on many issues).
District 21	State Representative	Gary Burrus	DEM
District 21	State Representative	Lee Qualm	REP	Strong GOP
District 22	State Representative	Carmen Dannenbring	DEM	Toss Up	A pack of new candidates. This could be a wild ride.
District 22	State Representative	Joan Wollschlager	DEM	Toss Up
District 22	State Representative	Roger Chase	REP	Toss Up
District 22	State Representative	Bob Glanzer	REP	Toss Up
District 23	State Representative	John A. Lake	REP	GOP Over
District 23	State Representative	Spencer Gosch	REP	GOP Over
District 24	State Representative	Mary Duvall	REP	GOP Over
District 24	State Representative	Tim Rounds	REP	GOP Over
District 25	State Representative	David Haagenson	DEM		District 25 is going to be a toss-up just like the Senate. Hunt has strong name ID. Ahlers and Pischke are going to slug it out for 2nd place.
District 25	State Representative	Dan Ahlers	DEM	Toss Up
District 25	State Representative	Roger Hunt	REP	Strong GOP
District 25	State Representative	Tom Pischke	REP	Toss Up
District 26A	State Representative	Shawn Bordeaux	DEM	Dem Over
District 26B	State Representative	James Schaefer	REP	GOP Over
District 27	State Representative	Jim Bradford	DEM	Lean Dem	I have no idea how Liz May wins in that heavy Dem District, but she does. I’d give it to her and Bradford if I were to guess today.
District 27	State Representative	Red Dawn Foster	DEM
District 27	State Representative	Steve Livermont	REP
District 27	State Representative	Elizabeth May	REP	Lean GOP
District 28A	State Representative	Oren Lesmeister	DEM	Dem Over
District 28B	State Representative	Sam Marty	REP	GOP Over
District 29	State Representative	Thomas J. Brunner	REP	GOP Over
District 29	State Representative	Larry Rhoden	REP	GOP Over
District 30	State Representative	Sandy Arseneault	DEM		Dems are not elected in this District, but the county extension officer might give you a dollar for each tail you bring in. This race is over.
District 30	State Representative	Kristine Ina Winter	DEM
District 30	State Representative	Julie Frye-Mueller	REP	Strong GOP
District 30	State Representative	Tim R. Goodwin	REP	Strong GOP
District 31	State Representative	Timothy R. Johns	REP	GOP Over
District 31	State Representative	Charles M. Turbiville	REP	GOP Over
District 32	State Representative	Nik Aberle	DEM		This race is over.
District 32	State Representative	Susan Kelts	DEM
District 32	State Representative	Sean McPherson	REP	Strong GOP
District 32	State Representative	Kristin A. Conzet	REP	Strong GOP
District 33	State Representative	Jim Hadd	DEM		This race is over.
District 33	State Representative	Ethan Marsland	DEM
District 33	State Representative	Taffy Howard	REP	Strong GOP
District 33	State Representative	David Johnson	REP	Strong GOP
District 34	State Representative	Steve Stenson	DEM		This race is over.
District 34	State Representative	Dan Dryden	REP	Strong GOP
District 34	State Representative	Craig Tieszen	REP	Strong GOP
District 35	State Representative	Dave Freytag	DEM		This race is over.
District 35	State Representative	Michael T Hanson	DEM
District 35	State Representative	Blaine “Chip” Campbell	REP	Strong GOP
District 35	State Representative	Lynne DiSanto	REP	Strong GOP

(Note – if I left out any other Indy’s, which I think I may have, I’ll have them in the next list. -PP)

By my reckoning, I’ve got 56 of these seats going for the GOP, 9 Going Dem, 1 Indy, leaving 4 seats that could be tossups – 1 in District 16, 2 in 22, and 1 in District 25.

And that looks just fine for the SDGOP.

5 thoughts on “And now, Pre-Convention rankings for the House contests”

Cliff Hadley says:

June 14, 2016 at 10:17 pm

Not sold on District 22 being a tossup. Both Glanzer and Chase are well-known throughout Beadle and Kingsbury counties, both in town and on the farm.They’re liked and respected. Dannenbring and Wollschlager will do well and likely carry Kingsbury, but I don’t see them finding enough votes in Beadle. A 2-point win for both GOP candidates.
Anonymous says:

June 15, 2016 at 1:20 am

The notes on the right side are blocked.
1. P says:
  
  June 15, 2016 at 5:38 am
  
  Try a different browser, or resize your screen.
Anon from 4 says:

June 15, 2016 at 7:30 am

You are soft-pedaling in 4. The reality of District 4 is it is strong GOP. Kettwig is a well known long-time businessman and city administrator in Milbank, the district’s largest community. He is well-spoken, approachable leader from the community who is also a Lt. Col, in the National Guard. Historically, a strong showing in Milbank clinches the district. John Mills, the other GOP candidate is from the second largest community, Volga, in the southern part of the district. Mills is a long-time businessman throughout Brookings County. He is well-known, well-liked, and has good name recognition. The liberal opposition have a large uphill battle. Schulke, is a quiet, poorly spoken nurse from the tiny town of Revillo. She ran two years and came in last place in a four-way field. Rosdahl is regarded by many in the Clear Lake community as an adequate but not the brightest teacher/coach in the school. In past elections the district has gone both R and D (think Val Rausch and Kathy Tyler), but has been significantly influenced by geography. Currently, the percentage of registered Rs is at an all-time high. For all these reasons, I see a strong GOP win in District 4.
1. Pat Powers says:
  
  June 15, 2016 at 8:28 am
  
  Keep in mind this is a snapshot at this point in time. And I base it on Name ID, district composition, & how well they campaign.
  
  I agree, they’re both rock solid candidates. But no one has really started campaigning yet, and as you note, District 4 picks a D every once in a while.
  
  That’s why I have it tagged as leaning GOP, and not strong GOP.

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5 thoughts on “And now, Pre-Convention rankings for the House contests”

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