Analysis of the Daugaard Gubernatorial poll leaked last week
(Continuing “Mercer Monday”) In his column this week, Bob analyzes the Daugaard poll leaked to the press this last week. And offers some comments about it:
The survey showed Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard as the front-runner for the Republican nomination for governor in 2010.
That said, it should be noted the Daugaard campaign paid for the poll to be conducted, and the actual questions weren’t leaked with the analysis memo.
It was also the first polling done for his campaign. So we don’t have any indication whether he is gaining, falling or on a plateau, seven months before the June primary.
The poll of 400 likely Republican-primary voters showed Daugaard favored by 26 percent, followed by Senate Republican leader Dave Knudson at 9 percent, Scott Munsterman 6 percent and Ken Knuppe 3 percent.
The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 22-23 and has a margin of possible error of plus or minus 4.9 percent in 95 of 100 cases.
Republican primaries for governor have long been hard-fought in South Dakota. Back in the 1986 contest, the front-running campaign of Clint Roberts released polling numbers showing him as the early favorite. Dwight Adams, the campaign manager for George S. Mickelson, took delight each time the four-candidate race kept tightening.
and…
The polling memo made no mention of the Republican winner’s likely November opponent, Senate Democratic leader Scott Heidepriem.
Heidepriem and Knudson are lawyers who live in Sioux Falls. Daugaard is a lawyer who works in Sioux Falls as chief executive for Children’s Home Society and lives in rural Garretson.
Munsterman is a chiropractor who lives in Brookings, where he was mayor. Knuppe is a rancher in the Buffalo Gap area who is a past president of the South Dakota Stockgrowers Association.
The great unknown for all five men is what the conditions will be in South Dakota next spring and next fall. The 2010 legislative session, which runs January through March, will be a crucial time, as the depths of state government’s financial difficulties become more apparent.
From Heidepriem we will hear the call for change. From Munsterman we will hear both change and fiscal restraint. From Knudson we will hear new ideas and a call for leadership. From Knuppe we will hear pull back. From Daugaard we will hear, hold steady and wait out the storm.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider to leave a comment or subscribe to the feed and get future articles delivered to your feed reader.
Comments
the suprising fact in the story was that after two statewide races, seven years in office, and 3 years of running for Gov, over 50% of the respondents don’t know who Daugaard is! Have to imagine that Hiedepriem liked that result, looking towards the fall if DD wins the primary,
This reminds me of the poll done for then Lt. Gov. Lowel Hanson. He had an even greater margin over Clint Roberts and some guy named George Mikelson.
In other words, so what.
It must be just me; but how does following your boss’s policy, ideology, political footprint, and political landscape make a state’s Lt. Gov. guilty for all the assumed sins of his boss? In my world I call that a fantastic employee!
Charlie B -
No matter how good your best farm hand was at taking orders on getting the cattle fed, you wouldn’t say that made him good at marketing, hedging and making critical decisions on blood lines. If SD needed a farm hand, not a leader, you’d be right on the money as usual chief 
yes – I have listened to all of them and concluded that Scott Munsterman is the most willing to stand up and lead, and in a direction a practical conservative in South Dakota can appreciate. Plus, he’s a fresh face with a real chance to win in the fall. Unlike many of the posters on this web site, I think that the fall election is no lay down for the GOP and that we can’t afford to put up a candidate like Daugaard who refuses to say where he stands on anything more controversial than apple pie. We need a leader, and I like Scott Munsterman for that job. I am afraid that a vote for weakness in the primary, would mean learning how to say “Governor Hiedepriem” after the fall election.
I don’t think this should surprise any of us. I mean I think we all think he is the front runner.