Dems should be getting nervous for 2010. Right about……. now.
Me? I think it’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas, as voters act as many pundits had predicted they would. They’re giving the GOP some big victories as we move into midterm elections:
Independents who swept Barack Obama to a historic 2008 victory broke big for Republicans on Tuesday as the GOP wrested political control from Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey, a troubling sign for the president and his party heading into an important midterm election year.
Conservative Republican Bob McDonnell’s victory in the Virginia governor’s race over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds and moderate Republican Chris Christie’s ouster of unpopular New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine was a double-barreled triumph for a party looking to rebuild after being booted from power in national elections in 2006 and 2008.
The outcomes were sure to feed discussion about the state of the electorate, the status of the diverse coalition that sent Obama to the White House and the limits of the president’s influence — on the party’s base of support and on moderate current lawmakers he needs to advance his legislative priorities.
His signature issue of health care reform was dealt a blow hours before polls closed when Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid signaled that Congress may not complete health care legislation this year, missing Obama’s deadline and pushing debate into a congressional election year.
and..
And, voter attitudes — particularly among independents — could bode ill for Democrats in moderate districts and in swing states like Ohio, Colorado and Nevada, should they remain unchanged when the party seeks to defend its turf next fall. In 2010, most governors, a third of the Senate and all members in the House will be on ballots.
It’s also difficult to separate Obama from the outcomes after he devoted a significant chunk of time working to persuade voters to elect Deeds in Virginia and re-elect Corzine in New Jersey.
Anyone care to venture a guess how that could factor into SD?
Are Democrats going to utterly abandon a Thune challenge because they aren’t sure they can even keep Stephanie? Does this make the Governor’s seat once again unattainable for Democrats?
The floor is yours.
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Comments
Stephie is really vulnerable–and I think that she is afraid.
She has lost her pretty perky image for the married-to-a- divorced-old-guy with lots of teen-agers and the working mother image. She is no longer conservative enough for the conservatives and she isn’t liberal enough for the left-wingers.
It is very possible that her time is up–it totally depends on who wins the primary and how well they engage and connect with the voters.
Yeah, well, Governor races are won mostly on state/local issues and the Bush recession is going to hurt incumbents no matter what party. The big news is Democrats took a House seat from the Republicans, one they hadn’t won since the civil war. I should say the Democrats and moderate Republicans beat the Teabag Republicans. This is important, because it shows the extremists are going to end up hurting the Republican Party.
Settle Down Pitty Patt. Let’s wait until tomorrow, then we can talk about all the blowouts. Like Republicans winning in the conservative south is some big surprise.
There were a lot of issues in that Dem win in NY. For one, the Rep pick was essentially a Dem, and when she dropped out, she endorsed the Dem! Strange and weird. It was a set-up to be won by a Dem or a Dem wannabe, and that’s how it ended up.
I think that fence Stephanie is sitting on is beginning to hurt a little. If she jumps one way, she loses support. If she jumps the other, she loses support. Maybe she should have met with voters in public meetings last summer and listened and cared; too late now to pretend she does.
Detroit: PP didn’t post about southern races within what he posted here. I have to admit I didn’t read the rest of what is on the net. May I suggest getting a map out.
As for Stephaine, she has always been a fence rider. She will just keep adding her pillows to protect the backside. She is liberal but knows in a state like SD she can only go so far. So goes the “me too” from her and then the backtrack. Kind of like “I was for it before I was against it” phrase.
Yeah, big wins for conservatives Tuesday night . . . NOT;
• Domestic Partnerships in Washington State approved
• Medical Marijuana in Maine approved
• NY District 23 rejecting not only a Conservative but also a moderate Republican for the first time in over 140 years.
BLAH, BLAH, BLAH
Why would we listen to anything that Detroit Squarehead Artpants has to say about politics?
For that matter, I’ve seen his art. I wouldn’t take his advice about that, either.
The biggest thing that came out of this is a realization that the “Messiah” has “no clothes.” He campaigned hard and lent his organization to Deeds and Corzine and there is no evidence it made a lick of difference.
A Demo friend said it best the other day who voted for Obama in the SD Dem. Primary. I had ribbed him non-stop during the primary that Obama had accomplished nothing to indicate he could be President, had earned his stripes in a corrupt environment, and only could give a good speech. This friend was firm that Obama would be the paradigm shifter such that I’d ultimately become a fan.
His quote to me: “Obama said he would govern from the middle. I guess I should have asked middle of what?”
Settle Anon 7:54. Indies broke Republican. That’s the story. In heavily Dem NJ, they broke enough to overcome a 10 point Dem advantage in numbers. That bodes ill for Obama and the Dems. As for what that means for SD, I doubt it means much. Thune is a walk, just like he was yesterday. Stephanie is too smart to lose this year. She will move away from the Dems on enough issues to look moderate, and bring home some bacon along the way. The Governor will be a Republican… yawn. How about the SOS race?
Best Guess – Stephanie joins the John Birch Society tomorrow and ask Ron Paul to endorse her 
. She’s a political weather vane and no dummie. If I didn’t know Lars was her father, I would have guessed Larry Pressler
Stephanie has some interesting choices to make. There is supposed to be a vote on the Dems health care proposal on Friday. What was touted as less than $900 billion turns out to be over $1.2 trillion. I do not know, but if this is like the bill proposed by Baucus, the tax increases begin immediately and the program does not go into effect until 2013, after the Presidential election. My guess is more than the $1.2 trillion.
She has to make a vote on tax and cap. My understanding is she is in favor of this.
Card Check has not gone away either.
How she votes on all of these proposals will test her “Blue Dog” credentials.
I think the election shows people are sick and tired of large government. Sandlin is no dummy, she will start looking like a moderate again. She will hide behind Pelosi.
Man, PP must have taken up the hemp cause in SD, as in, “what are you smokin’”?
Exit polling in the races indicate that the big swing was by Independents being impatient and voting out incumbent parties but that President Obama’s rating has not suffered. My guess is, since Stephanie has been very independent as a Blue Dog, she will not be hurt.
The more intersting race is the upstate New York race where a Democrat won for the first time since 1850. The overwhelming Republican rejection of Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh’s endorsed candidate is more newsworth.
9:46-You keep believing that and picking over the bones of this latest election you will be in the minority very soon. The establishment candidate chosen by the republicans in upstate NY was NOT a conservative, my gosh she was FOR cardcheck. The social issues were just icing and the guy that came close had virtually no money, no name id, no party behind him, had the republican in the race endorsed the democrat and your claiming a victory? There are some commercial developers in this town that will still sell you $40,000 an acre land if your that naive. I cant believe that Detroitless and Co are reading the tea leaves this way.
Troy-what is your take?
Jeff,
The question is what will Republicans do. Herseth can’t win without GOP votes. In NJ and VA, the numbers indicate that the GOP voted over 90% and maybe 95% for the GOP candidate. And, independents went over 65% for the GOP candidate.
Curd and Nelson are both credible Republicans so they will not have a “personality” problem. Republicans are registered Republican for a reason and NJ and VA show they are not happy with Obama. Thune will be dominating his opponent. Dem’s will be focused on the Governor’s race.
All this indicates that 95% of the GOP vote for Nelson/Curd is realistic. This translates into 44% of the vote for Curd/Nelson from the GOP.
Herseth will lose some Democrat votes but let’s assume they vote 100% for her so she has about 38% of the vote from the Dem’s.
The election then will come down to what the 15% of the Independents do. To win, Herseth needs to be so “Moderate” that she can get 75% of the Independents. Against a viable GOP candidate and considering the mood of Independents exemplified in VA and NJ, Herseth has her work cut out for her.
To be fair, I don’t think the two governor elections had much to do with President Obama. Virginia has a tradition of voting for the opposite of the party that just won the White House. Plus, most of the voters said in exit polls that Obama had nothing to do with how they voted.
As for New Jersey, Corzine pretty much deserved to lose. He represented Wall Street which is not the most popular thing right now. And he kept doing really awful things during his campaign like criticize his opponent’s weight. Again, I don’t see much of Obama in that loss.
“Like Republicans winning in the conservative south is some big surprise.” Detroit, I don’t know if you need a map or a crowbar to wedge your head out of your rectum, but New Jersey is neither conservative nor southern.
The party you continue to deny supporting but continuously support got their donkeys handed to them last night. No amount of spin, even from people far more intellegent than you, will reverse that fact.
Hoffman was only in the campaign a short time, and I heard that he was hampered by not being able to use his name in ads. Have been gone a lot this last month so not sure if these things are right. But if they are, he had a remarkable showing in spite of this. And of course, the “rep” candidate who dropped out did it late enough that many absentee ballots for her had already been cast. Wonder how much of her votes were those. Anyway, it was a strange election there. And now I hear that the Dems are going to divide up that district to ensure that only Dems will be elected from now on to eternity. Politics!
Independents figured out they overcorrected with Obamamania. Repubs will pick up 20+/- seats in the House & rid the 60 vote majority in the Senate.
Stephanie will keep her seat but it’ll be close. Dems will stay away from Thune to focus on govs race.