Politico: Election results “an unmistakable rebuke of Democrats” and “a shot across the bow to moderates” thinking about supporting a liberal agenda.
As Democrats are doing their best to find any way to spin the election results in a positive way, unfortunately for them it isn’t working very well. In an election where independents swung wildly towards the GOP in general, voters are sending a direct message that they’re willing to hit the reset button again.
The off-year elections were, in two big races, an unmistakable rebuke of Democrats, reshuffling Obama’s political circumstances in ways likely to have severe near-term consequences for his policy agenda and larger governing strategy.
Independents took flight from Democrats. They suffered humiliating gubernatorial losses in traditionally Democratic New Jersey, where Obama lent his prestige in a pair of eleventh-hour campaign rallies Sunday, and in Virginia, which had been trending leftward and just last year was held up as an example of how Obama was redrawing the political map in his favor.
Tuesday night’s trends were emphatically not in Obama’s favor. Among those paying closest attention are dozens of Democrats who won formerly Republican congressional districts in 2006 and 2008 and are up for reelection in 2010. Many of these pickups that powered the Democrats’ recapture of Congress came in Southern and border states, or in the Ohio River Valley, where political conditions are similar to those in Virginia.
Obama now faces a much tougher challenge persuading these mostly moderate Democrats to put themselves further at risk by backing such liberal priorities as expanding government’s role in heath care or limiting greenhouse gases.
and…
It is true enough that both Democratic candidates had severe limitations — Deeds was a notably unprepossessing candidate compared with the polished McDonnell, and Corzine was deeply unpopular and at the helm of a state suffering through difficult economic times. Neither race should be viewed as strictly a referendum on Obama. But if there is a danger in overinterpreting off-year elections, it is also a mistake to underinterpret.
Particularly in Virginia, the rout of three Democrats running for three separate statewide offices, as well as the loss of several legislative seats, sent an unambiguous message. The independent voters who helped Obama in 2008 become the first Democratic presidential candidate in 44 years to carry the Old Dominion have swung wildly in a different direction. The swing from Obama’s win last year to McDonnell’s Tuesday: 23 points.
Exit polls showed Republican McDonnell won 63 percent of independent voters. Likewise in Democratic-trending Northern Virginia, the Republican carried the three largest suburban counties of Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William — all counties Obama won handily last year.
In New Jersey, likewise, Christie won 58 percent of independents.
“This is a shot across the bow to the moderates and Blue Dog Democrats as they decide votes on health care” and other issues, said Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), the House minority whip.
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Comments
Gross misread.
When democrats are cozy Goldman Sach’ers, when democrats (bluedogs) act like republicans, then the Independents and many in the demo base will stay home. Virginia has a 40 years history of electing a governor opposite the party controlling the White House. Gay marriage narrowly lost in Maine; domestic partnerships won in Washington.
Obama won 365 electoral votes, and the demos control both houses of congress – yet are doing next to nothing with the mandate. Independents and the demo base are not amused, stay home, and slam their wallets shut – like they did for Al Gore’s uninspiring candidacy.
PP’s over-interpreting outcomes; the White House is under-interpreting them.
Jon: Very good points. However, if you listened to the Virginia voters last night why they voted Republican it was based on local issues (i.e. jobs) and the national scene of their fear of overgrown government. The independents which came out in droves for the Big O, essentially fled the DEMS for the same reason. Big O’s campaign statements of no new taxes, limited government, positive change slighted the independents and he is feeling a backlash that will get worse. I hope the white house continues to underinterpret those trends.
Corzine could have been beaten by a potted plant. No big rebuke there.
Don’t let this stop you from shooting at moderates, though – even if you’re using metaphorical bullets. You will become a marginalized minority party.
Here’s an idea: Drop the social conservative drivel, and run on a truly fiscally conservative platform. Don’t just slow government growth, actually cut government spending until the budget is balanced. Then go to work on debt. Then begin systimatically overhauling our tax system.
Social conservatism is what is holding the GOP back.
Actually Jon, your points are interesting. Especially considering the number of people who have left the Republican party for precisely those reasons. Republicans quit going home with the people who brought them to the dance. They stayed home.
During the last two Congressional elections cycles, the Democrats painted the Republicans as big spenders and corrupt. Today, we are finding the Democrats are showing just how corrupt they are and how big of spenders they are. As a conservative, I do not want to be a part of a party that is Democrat lite. This shot across the bow as it is, should be a wake-up call for Republicans as well as Democrats.
Jon, I would encourage you Democrats to veer even farther to the left. I think you have a good point about how Democrats are staying home because they are not liberal enough. In fact, those southern Democrats who took Republican seats should be reading this that they are not liberal enough. They should be lining up to vote in favor of government takeover of health care, card check, and tax and cap. They might even propose a Constitutional Amendment to require every woman to have an abortion before they have a child. That should get them re-elected.
“Thought I’d share a newly developed recipe for Elephant Upside-Down Surprise Cake. First you take a congressional district that has had Republican representation in the U.S. House of Representatives since two decades before the Civil War, then add a teabag, pour on some hot steamin’ Sarah Palin, add a squeeze of Rush Limbaugh, then carefully strain the mixture until there is no trace of the moderate Republican. Then just wait and watch. Pretty soon you’ll have….Surprise! A Democrat! There you go folks. Dems across the land can now send thank you notes to Our Lady of Perpetual Meddling. Can’t wait to find out whose fault THIS one is going to be”
The above is a quote from http://www.themudflats.net/2009/11/03/new-yorks-23rd-district-discuss/
Hold on those noisemakers for a bit. Your party (and I am an independent)ain’t done cannibalizing itself yet.
odenbach, i know mcdonnell in VA is for real. he went to my alma mater, regent university. very good guy. strong conservative.
jon, gay marriage got beat in maine, despite it being one of the most liberal states in the union, and despite strong support of it from the legislature.
anonymous dude, it was the full-conservative hoffman who was kicking the half-conservative’s, scozzafava, butt in the election. i agree that they should run on a truly conservative platform, which includes social and fiscal conservatism, like that of bob mcdonnell’s.
Here’s where this will make a difference. Despite what we all think (and I certainly have a point of view) the important thing is what the Dems in right leaning districts think about it. If those reps see this as a warning, then Obamacare, Cap and Trade, etc are finished. If they don’t see it as a warning, those will pass (in some form).
Either way, we’ll know 12 months from now.
Back to my point of view… I think some of those Dems will still vote for the Obama agenda and some will bail. Key measures will fail because of those that bailed. Next November, the ones that bailed will keep their seats (ensuring Dems keep control) while those that stuck with Obama will get beat. Again though, my thoughts don’t really matter. We’ll see how the Dems feel when the votes start happening.
I agree this is somewhat a rebuke of the Democrats, but I don’t think it is a rebuke of Democratic policies, such as the public option, which remain popular. Unemployment is still very high and people are still generally upset about the direction of the country, and this is enough to convince most people, especially Independents, to vote against the party in power. The Democratic bases also imploded in New Jersey and Virginia, probably for the reasons Jon gave. Polling shows that only about 20% of the country identifies as Republican, so these elections could be seen more as frustration with the Democrats than support of Republicans.
If unemployment is still hovering around 10% in 2010, and if they still haven’t passed meaningful health care reform, I would worry if I were the Democrats.
Of particular interest to me was NY-23 which shows what could happen in 2010 if Sarah Palin and the Teabaggers can’t get along with mainstream Republicans and the GOP.
To Braden and the rest who misread NY23. Remember that the Dem got less than 50%. And Hoffman didn’t take off until Pawlenty, Palin and such got involved. Another week and the result would have probably been different.
Regarding the snarky lib spin on NY23:
A THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE DID REALLY WELL. Get that through your thick skulls.
And gee whiz. You are quick to call it a rebuke of Palin et al, yet refuse to see that Obama was the kiss of death in NJ.
As usual, the spin is mostly here on the SDWC campus.
Read this and unwind a little, mates.
Quick, before you hurt yourselves:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/new-jersey-virginia.html
NY 23 the candidate was a nobody, with no money, no party support, from Canada (huge disadvantage), had the “republican” party candidate endorse the democrat and he made it a race. If you want to spin this as a plus for you go ahead. But the republicans/fiscal conservatives will destroy your over confidence and inability to read what this country is saying. I cant even comrehend in any way how any of this is a positive for your side. A primary would have settled the Republicans problem, whats your excuse?
“As Democrats are doing their best to find any way to spin the election results in a positive way, unfortunately for them it isn’t working very well”
That’s right. Republicans won 2 Governors races in states that any pollster knew 3 months ago they’d win. Democrats won 2 House races, one of which was a shoe-in, while the other one hasn’t voted for a Democrat SINCE THE CIVIL WAR.
So it was a 50-50 split, but given recent Republicans history, that’s obviously a win.
Speaking as a liberal Democrat, I sure hope that losing House seats is how Republicans plan to “take back America”
My point is, you’re a long, long way from hearing the chord changes to the “Happy Days Are Here Again” song, boys. Long. The strings ain’t even on the banjo.
I think Virginia is the most telling of all the races. It is one thing to win as an R in Virginia and another thing to win by 18 points.
I bet Herseth is getting nervous!!!
Bill -Which Democrat governor candidate are you talking about!!!!???? Near as I can tell (not counting Frank Klouchek) there are two probables, of which have a poorer chance to win then when Franks twin brother Bernie ran for governor.
SDMike
PS: No name calling please from my thin-skinned liberals
BF,
I don’t see that happening anytime soon. Unless “Republican Dave” gets elected, which is basically the same thing.
Ymous, the wingnut didn’t have any money? What are you talking about? The Club for Growth ran over 300 thousand in tv adds. It also donated maximun amounts to his campaign committee. Dick Armey’s Freedom Works were also big givers in both money and staffers. Beck, Limbaugh and Palin raised big bucks for him. It wasn’t a qustion of not having enough money, it was a question of having the wrong wingnut issues.
Keep believe what your slinging 5:17 and Happy Days for the GOP will be here again. Your still not getting it. The guy had the charisma of a snail and was climbing a massive hill. The Republican part establishment was against him, the dems were against him. His boots on the ground organization was nothing and he almost one. Keep belivin as they say but you will be a losin with your reading on this. Your chances of winning the Gov in this state just took a large hit also Billy Bob-If Jersey is running whats that make a true right of center state do? Yeah, I thought youd say that.
There is absolutely zero chance South Dakota will elect Heidipreim as our next Governor. He will easily be beat by double digits.
BF: I would to see South Dakota elect some in state Dems so we can get back to a two party system. Having said that I want to D.C. do the same.
The GOP is going to win by big margains in SD this year.
Thune 78%
Daugaard or Munsterman 58%
Curd 50.3%
Marty Jackley 59%
Dusty Johnson 70%
Jarrod Johnson 58%
Rich Sattgast 66%
Jason Gant or Tom Deadrick 54%
Walter, Scott’s name defies the “i” before “e” except after “c” rule in the first instance but not in the second: i.e. “Heidepriem.” I think it means “good health” in German, maybe. Sorta. Is that TMI?
Walter, I would not worry about the correct spelling of his name until he actually wins the governorship. I do not think you have much to worry about.
Back to the original post. If Democrats continue to go where their leadership wants them to go, I believe we will see a lot fewer of them in Congress. If Republicans refuse to listen to the conservatives, they will not be able to take advantage of the opportunity offered them. I will say it again. Republicans are not out of power because they are too liberal. Republicans are out of power because they are too much like Democrats. I know, I know. Republicans are losing members. Well, the Democrats are not increasing. If Republicans would act like the conservatives they are supposed to be, they will become the dominate party again.
ymous, where do you get this stuff? The wingnut express had hundreds of volunteers in NY23. Matter of fact the wingnut to beat all wingnuts,musgrave from Co. was there with her minions working the streets for him. Face it, wingnuttery is not selling.
NRA absoulutely will support SHS!! She has voted right on 2nd amend and they will not take a chance at pissing her off if she were to get re elected(not bad odds). That being said, I would rather they support Chris Nelson.
amazing that hoffman could gather the last-minute grassroots support he did. their local leadership seems a bit out of touch, as does michael steele. hoffman was a great candidate, and did a great job, and would’ve won were it not for scozzafava endorsing the dem. you gotta think hoffman is prime for 2010.
Mr. Fleming, I really think you should enter the Governor’s race. Or, if you choose not to run as an independent or against your man Heide you should ask him if you can run on his ticket with him if he beats Ron. I would very seriously consider voting for a (D) for Governor if you were on their ticket, or were promised a Staff Chief Czar spot. If Munsterman wins the GOP, all bets are off, however, because with PP as Staff Chief then I can’t wait to read this blog.
Liberal agenda is a convenient term to hang the Dems by when I think, when you look at it more closely, the Reps victories seem more a function of the person (be it the winner or the loser) than what they stood for. And, in the one case where the Dems took a victory (House seat in NY), the way-right conservative agenda shook the Rep candidate out of the race and led her to endorse the Dem.
Add to this items on the ‘liberal’ agenda which passed (or are close to passing include:
1-the domestic partnership act (everything but marriage) in Washington State and
2-medical marijuana in Maine (can’t be gay and be married but you can take a toke to lessen the nausea after chemo)
The ‘liberal agenda’ when put to the voters shows there is a split, but by no means should the Republicans think they have it made because of the statehouse wins in VA (usually a Rep) and NJ (people just don’t like folks buying elections–see Bloomberg)
8:26-The Republican endorsed the Deomocrat, ahhgh why waste my time. I have tried with econ to the dillusional here but they had their Libermaen moment but cant see the forest through the trees.
5 or 10 years ago these GOP wins would make the partisan in me just giddy. Now I only want to know one thing: Are these Republicans actually going to do what their platform says they stand for? If not, to heck with ‘em.