Post-Democratic Convention Bounce
Two post-Democratic Convention Polls are in:
Rasmussen Tracking: Before convention, McCain up by 1%. After convention, Obama up by 5%.
Gallup Tracking: Before Convention, Obama up by 1%. After the convention, Obama up by 6%.
Obama’s national bounce appears to be between 5% and 6%. Recent historical Democrat average bounce is 12% vs. just under 11% for Republicans. The size of the bounce should neither scare Dem’s at this point or comfort Republicans. Unlike prior elections, this race has shown a great deal of stability since Spring. Since the race was virtually tied before the conventions, the candidate with the bigger bounce will enter the last two months with the lead.
In the only battleground state (Ohio) with a poll taken in the interim of the two conventions, Obama appears to have gotten virtually no bounce. Since the Palin announcement was in Dayton Ohio, it might indicate early reaction to Palin. Two state polls that will be interesting to me will be Colorado and Minnesota, the sites of the conventions.
Since the polling period included the Palin announcement, did it increase or decrease the bounce? Any predictions on McCain’s bounce?
Convention Bounces, 1968 to 2004*
Dem Bounce Rep Bounce
2004 Kerry +8 G.W. Bush +5
2000 Gore +16 G.W. Bush +9
1996 Clinton +5 Dole +15
1992 Clinton +30 G.H.W. Bush +16
1988 Dukakis +11 G.H.W. Bush +11
1984 Mondale +16 Reagan +8
1980 Carter +17 Reagan +13
1976 Carter +16 Ford +7
1972 McGovern -3 Nixon +8
1968 Humphrey +4 Nixon +14
*ABC/Post polls, 1992-2004; Gallup, 1968-88
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Comments
Now they’re playing Heart’s “Barracuda”, and I just gotta wonder what a Styx afficianado like PP thinks about that. Those Heart girls are still pretty young and hot to a geezer like me, but that can’t be the right message to be sending when the nominees are out there shaking hands with…wait…Is that GREENFIELD? No, no. Different guy. McCains and Palin are working the crowd. Lots of VFW hats in the crowd. There’s a hot chick. And that Virginia woman, man did she have some…
Holy Cow. I’ve become a live blog reporter.
Hey, there’s that one teeny drugged woman that PP put his arm around. She’s buried in balloons, and can’t get out. There are giant, giant blonde chicks behind her. I think this is faked. No way there are that many balloons. This is faked. Andrea is her name…
No balloons where the Sen. is. He’s back on a stage. Hair looks good. His wife is with him. The Andrea girl that was dwarfed by PP’s massive head is still being swallowed by balloons. The announcer just said “mylar has stopped Andrea”.
McCain on stage. Now leaving. That bodes bad.
Tom Ridge on now, I need to focus and listen. Night all. Live-blogging from PP’s website ends now. It’s way past my bedtime.
Brings to mind that commercial with the fying eggs that compared them to your brain… - lol
Bill, I’m sure you and I had different takes on tonight’s speech but one thing I hope we can agree on, John McCain (agree with him, or not) truly does love this country.
I’ve probably disgreed with him as much as anyone but I’ve got to give the man his due.
I liked what he has to say about the time to reform and clean up the politics in the capitol.
11:19-
Of course John McCain loves his country, it has given him FREE healthcare his entire life even though he is married to a mult-millionaire. But he wants to deny that right to hardworking middle class Americans. Yeah, John loves his country, the people in this country that are just like him.
Detroit: McCain gets free healthcare because he is a veteran who got his butt kicked around as a prisoner of war. A prisioner of WAR. Are you for real?
He’s not denying anything to the middle class except your allegiance to socialized medicine.
My grandfather got it for free, WWI. My father got it for free WWII. My uncle and cousin got it for free Korea and Vietnam. Then again, vet care is nothing to write home about. How can you complain about your perception of no governmental health care for Americans but complain when our vets get it for putting their lives on the line, thus protecting your rights to complain like you do???
Dillusional, Dillusional.
Bad news for the Dem’s. Bounce is appearing to be less than first polls.
Hotline FD Tracking: Before Dem convention, Obama up 4%. After the Dem conventions, Obama up 6%
CBS News: Before the conventino, Obama up 8%. After the convention, Tie.
Aggregate average Obama bounce from the available four polls is less than a 1%. Keep in mind this is from tracking polls. The official ABC/Post poll is due in days.
I think these polls are severely undercounting the black and latino voters. For instance, a recent Time magazine poll had 4% Latino and 10% black. What planet are they on? Those figures don’t even match 2004 exit polls and our nation is trending more black and Hispanic. Blacks made up 11% of the electorate in 2004 and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see that figure hit 13% this year with all of the massive interest surrounding Obama’s campaign in the black community. Also, the Hispanic figure was 8% in the 2004 and should be at least 9 or 10% this time around.
Interesting question, Troy.
There has already been a kind of hidden “bump” that’s woven into the nation’s political fabric and kind of out of sight right now.
But you can get a feel for it by looking at these (real) poll numbers:
Republican Primary popular vote count 2000:
George W. Bush= 12,034,676
John McCain = 6,061,332
Alan Keyes = 985,819
Democrat Primary popular vote count 2000:
Al Gore = 10,626,568
Bill Bradley = 2,798,281
Lyndon LaRouche = 323,014
————————————————
Compared to:
Republican Primary popular vote count 2008:
McCain = 9,840,746
Romney = 4,525,036
Huckabee=4,179,514
Democratic Primary popular vote count 2008:
Obama = 17,535,458
Clinton = 17,493,836
I’m thinking those are the real poll results that will
keep Karl Rove awake at night for the next few months.