McCain/Palin gets nice post convention bounce.
According to Zogby’s, the GOP ticket received a nice post-convention bounce. Read it and weep, Dems:
The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.
The Ticket Horserace 9-5/6 8-29/30 McCain-Palin
49.7% 47.1% Obama-Biden
45.9% 44.6% Others/Not sure
4.4% 8.3% and…
Pollster John Zogby: “Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be “values” voters who like a good value for their money.”
McCain’s favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.
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Comments
I don’t like the over used term “bounce.” The connotation is that the public perception was on a slide, hit _something_ and then bounces back up.
That may be PP’s personal rah-rah zone before and after the convention but I, for one, don’t think the GOP was on a downturn and then “bounced” up. I think we’re a rocket, man, we’re a rocket man.
6:02, the Obama campaign is saying that the “experience” thing is off the table.
Maybe.
But then the “McRich” thing (via Cindy…did you every make a crack about TeRAYza Heinz Kerry, who is worth a hell of a lot more than Cindy) is off the table, too. Palin represents the “kitchen table” American family more than anybody on either ticket, and maybe anybody on any ticket, ever.
You people are just ticked because Obama didn’t live up to the “change” mantra and went with an old white guy as his running mate.
The initial reaction was “Sarah who?” But the Democrats initial glee was followed by an “everything but the sink” stream of attacks. Nothing worked because it was all so petty. Now they are desperate. I would feel sorry for Palin if I wasn’t sure she can handle it. After the “yawn” Biden choice, McCain energized the ticket and caught all the buzz.
how much you want to bet Obama spent the weekend checking to see if he could have do-overs on the VP pick?!?
PP do you even read these articles before you write your own headlines? The “bounce”, according to the article, was 2%, which is well within the margin of error for the poll.
9:21, that’s correct. Also, 6:21 is correct. The true bounce, for better or worse won’t be show up until next Tuesday or Wednesday. That’s just the way these rolling polls work. — not to say there won’t be one, just that it’s too early to tell yet.
It’s all a mess, CNN (which used a combined polling process) has Obama up by 1 pt. Gallop has McCain up by 4 pt. But accuracy in polls is way off as we have seen during the primaries. The reason? Most polling is done during the day on land lines. Which would be mostly old people who are either registered Republicans or Democrats. So the polls are right on when it comes to those voters. Actually I am surprised that McSame isn’t leading by 8-10 points. When you factor out all the new voters that have registered since 2004 (record numbers), all the people who only use cellphones and all the indies, the polls are way off, but in which direction?
actually, the “bounce” was statistically equal for both candidates.
McCain jumped 2.6%, while Obama jumped 1.3%. The only loser was ‘undecideds’, who broke 2 to 1 for McCain.
But these numbers are statistically meaningless. In layman’s terms, it’s like saying your child gained 2 ounces over the weekend, because you weighed him on a scale that has a read-out only in pounds.
Detroit-
Your attitude has definitely improved, I’m happy for you. But seriously, “Mc Same”? Can we now just try to be adults and use both politicans proper names, they have both earned that right.
Obviously, the “undecided independent women” haven’t gotten a good look at Todd Palin. The real men - and decisive women - continue to be on the Republican side.
Oh, polls aren’t accurate NOW; when it shows positives for McCain. They should have asked more important questions like ‘Are you Racist?’, eh Detroit?
How ’bout the stat that indies don’t show up for voting? Taking that into account would mean that indies are moot, for the Election of ‘08!
The fact is there are so many factors making Polls irrelevant that just because Ba-Back or McCain is ahead means nothing. That’s why, what the candidates say, is so important. Because when you cross-reference with what they do, you can actually figure out their position.
So, figure that those people, who don’t have TIME to stay at home, are going to do their homework! And they aren’t going to vote for the candidate who wants to punish them for their success!
I agree polls are a bad way to determine who will win in an election, so let’s look at some other interesting stats;
- Twice as many dems as republicans showed up to vote in the primaries
- 3 to 4 times more people show up to democratic rallies then republican ones (not until McSame added Palin has his numbers increased.
- Obama raised 10 million dollars the day after Palin’s speech and gets six times more money donated to him then McCain does from active servicemen in Iraq.
Things that make you go, hmmmmmmmmmm.
Point 1. The Dem Primary lasted twice as long.
Point 2. McCain hadn’t tried until after the convention.
Point 3. There are 10 million ways to divide up $10 million. ( If I had numbers to choose between 1 and 10 million; I’d be guessin closer to 1 than 10 million)
The value of polls at this stage of the race is it is an indication of what is working and not working in the campaigns. Race is still close enough that even marginal differences in the debate will likely be decisive.
#1 - I was referring to win there was still an undecided Republican candidate
#2 - Um, okay, whatever that is supposed to me.
#3 - He raised the 10 million by asking for $5 donations, you do the math however you want to.
Looks like Obama got a “bounce” of about 5% from the Dem Convention and McCain has gotten about twice that much from his.
With records being set on viewership at the conventions, the debates will be the decisive factor. The rest will be noise.
TG: The average may be 71.43 but the distribution could be a million different ways. For instance, it could be
4,000 giving $2,000 each (close to legal maximum): $8MM
200 PACS giving $5,000: $1mm
And 135,800 giving an average of under $6 eaxh.
While the mean average donation is $71 and the median average donation is under $6. But if you go to the profile of the person giving the mid-mark donation (dont’ remember what statisticians call this), the donor would have given $2,000. One has to look closely a the statistics to make sure you are getting a fair presentation.
There’s always an “I meant to say THIS” moment with Ba-Back and his voters.
For the slow…I don’t think there’s a reset button on those Nukes.
With people not understanding FreddieMac and Fannie Mae are Publicly Traded Government Entities, I thought I’d use the Nuke illustration rather than the Ahmadinejad reference.
For Troy, Guy, Lee et al. Since you all seem to like pretty women, rock and roll and such, here’s a tune I think about every time I read one of your whimsical, wishful posts about polls and the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.
Enjoy.
Bill,
Three comments:
1) I’m still in love w/ Linda.
2) In my opinion, the current polls are meaningless as a predictor of the outcome. The could be a harbinger of future gains by McCain or just a bubble that bursts.
3) I think that you even need to admit that McCain got more out of his week that Obama. Do you disagree that the debates are the most critical items remaining in the campaign.
P.S. Huffington is a moron. Today, she criticized Palin for saying on Saturday Freddie and Fannie are too big and expensive for the taxpayers. On the same day, they are being taken over by the taxpayers at a potential exposure of $200 Billion. Right now, Palin looks prescient.
I don’t think the debates do it, Troy.
I wish they did, but I’m afraid they don’t.
I think it comes down to something like voting
for the Homecoming King, sad to say.
If we are going to be on a Styx theme:
John McCain to Sarah Palin: Lady: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR4if4ble1A
The introduction to the DNC: Grand Illusion:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOLxnVWXaRg
They have a three point lead in the Gallup poll. And both polls run on three-day rolling averages, which means tomorrow’s poll (taken Friday, Saturday, Sunday) may be a little better for McCain/Palin. Prior to the Biden announcement, the two tickets were basically tied. So the net effect of Biden, Palin, and both conventions is a bounce to McCain of around 3-5%. Not bad.