Herseth likely holding tight to what she has
From today’s Argus Leader:
Looking toward 2010, Herseth Sandlin, 38, laid out three options:
Run for re-election to the House, where she is enjoying enhanced stature as co-chairwoman of the Blue Dog Coalition, an influential caucus of fiscally conservative Democrats. Run for the Senate against incumbent Republican John Thune, who is seeking a second six-year term. Run for the open governor’s seat, being vacated by Republican Mike Rounds. Herseth Sandlin conceded it would be tough, though not impossible, to knock off Thune. And while the governor’s seat would be open, she pointed out that the state has elected only four Democrats to that office, among them her grandfather Ralph Herseth.
This straying Blue Dog (who can’t seem to follow that espoused fiscal conservatism) potentially taking on John Thune? Isn’t going to happen because she just flat out can’t win.
Governor? Why give up the cushy job she has now for one where the buck stops with you? It’s an entirely different cat, and she’s right when she says that South Dakotans don’t elect Dems to that office.
Herseth is going to stay put. Period.
Now it’s up to the GOP to give her a good challenge in that office. And to point out as she rubs the blue off of her coat by supporting the administration’s policies.
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Comments
Stephanie takes the long view. My guess is she runs for Tim’s seat in 2014 and stays in the House.
Prepare ye the way for Mike Huether for governor! And yes Pat, he is getting off the milk carton.
Todd Epp
SD Watch http://www.southdakotawatch.net
At our coffee meeting this week, the people discussed how Herseth has received a million dollars from the unions and now they are backing their bill effectively ending secret ballots in union elections. These business types are very upset with Herseth for backing this bill. It’s hard to conceive of her winning a Senate or Governor race after taking such positions.
Let’s see. House of Representative salary; $174K. SD Governor pay $105K. Level of responsibility in the House? Vote every now and again. Be in Washington DC two or three days per week. Responsibilities of being a governor? Putting together a budget. Administrating all of the agencies of a state. Being on call 24-7. Plus who knows what else.
Stephanie can be a Representative for as long as she wants. Who does the GOP have to run against her? I think TJ’s seat could be hers, but there might be more of a chance for a GOP contender running for that one.
All along, I thought Herseth would run for Governor, but her words and the logic of some of these posts, now makes me doubt that she does anything except run for re-election.
Hey Bill,
I’m not at all convinced she could beat Thune. She’s absolutely a solid choice for the Democrats for the Governor’s seat and is a shoe-in for re-election to the House.
People are watching more closely than they ever have in my experience. If she votes Blue Dog, she’ll maintain her popularity. If she continues to vote to approve legislation she hasn’t read, mortgaging our grandchildrens’ futures, she’ll be defeated in any race.
There’s no doubt about it, though. She’s in the drivers seat.
Feasant:
You may not have heard of Mike Huether–yet. Understandable. But you will. Stay tuned.
Todd Epp
SD Watch http://www.southdakotwatch.net
Oh, I bet she’ll convince you — if and when the time comes, Mike S.
Let’s put it this way, Dog… Blue or no, if the race is between JT and SHS, I think I know who you’ll vote for.
How’s things by the way?
Long time no see.
Ok, found it. An old horse-racing term, used to mean the race was fixed. These days not so much, just a sure bet. I’d post the link but PP’s blogware won’t let me today. Must be the blizzard or something.
Herseth is incredibly popular and probably has a choice of offices at her disposal.
Those entrenched in political circles seem to sometimes forget that the vast majority of voters don’t vote on issues. They tend to vote for people who they feel they can relate to and seem to be like them.
Herseth is incredibly effective at communicating a message that voters can relate to. I think back to her first run for Congress (remember, when she was a nobody with no money and a skeleton campaign and almost beat Janklow) and she ran a series of commercials about South Dakota’s youth leaving the state for brighter pastures. A lot of voters, young and old, related to those commercials.
The two votes most often brought up against Herseth are the stimulus bill and the card check bill.
The stimulus vote was a high stakes vote and could be damaging if things don’t get better in the next year. But voters are incredibly forgiving to members of Congress when it comes to the economy. They tend to stick economic problems onto the executive branch. It would be incredibly easy for Herseth to argue that the stimulus bill was largely a tax break program for businesses — because it is one. It would also be easy for her to argue that the stimulus bill is our best chance at reviving the economy — a much better chance than doing nothing as a lot of Republicans argued.
The card check legislation is a confusing one for average voters. Most members of the media don’t understand it enough to accurately report on it. I doubt it would resonate with enough voters to sway an election.
Herseth/Thune would make an interesting race and not the slam dunk that a lot of Republicans seem to think it would be. There are a lot of Democratic activists in the state who would enjoy the opportunity to retake the Daschle/McGovern seat.
An open governor’s seat. Gee. I don’t know what to say about this one anymore. It genuinely seems the most intriguing race for 2010. Republicans seem to have a lot of no names (to the voting public) interested in the office. Herseth would be a heavy favorite going in. I also think the race would tighten considerably. Tighter than a lot of Dems would like to admit. Unless the GOP nominates a moderate like Knudson. Too many cultural conservatives would stay home with Knudson on the ballot in the fall. Maybe they could field a third party candidate and make it interesting.
If Herseth runs for re-election to the House, let’s face it. It’s a slam dunk. When’s the last time South Dakota had a tight race with a House incumbent running for re-election? We haven’t had a competitive race in the single district era.
If I were Republicans, I would not underestimate Herseth running for Senate or Governor. She could win either. She certainly wouldn’t lose because of the stimulus bill or card check.
Some of the people we send to congress like SD more than DC and come back here to live when they’re done. Some get Potomac Fever and just can’t force themselves to come home to SD. I suspect I know which type Stephanie is, but I’m not sure. So far, I think Thune is still a South Dakotan and that won’t change by 2010. Down the road – who knows.
I smile when I read these things. Bill Fleming, I bet you would want odds on a bet that she could beat Thune. Easy to make predictions here with no ramifications. Never happen. Never. But I will admit that Daschle supporters probably said the same thing.
Her support of that pro union bill means she is done in SD. Not even liberal George spports that!!!
I use to belive she could win the Gov’s race with no problems but after her latest votes I am not so sure. As for her beating JT unlike Bill F. I am not so sure she could . I for one would like to have a Dem. Gov. this time as I think it is time to wake up the Rep. party in South Dakota and I belive a Dem governor would be a uniting factor for the Rep. and would force them to change.
Wouldn’t it be ironic if Stephanie ran against Thune and then complained about there not being enough debates? Thune is still popular and is articulate. Herseth-Sandlin is popular and articulate. In a race between the two, I believe Thune wins unless there is some major event that changes everything.
Many people I have talked to vote Herseth because she is so cute. I know her to be very intelligent, not that she necessarily votes that way all the time. Her biggest asset is that she is sitting on a million bucks and knows it.
Bill,
I’m doin’ fine…economy has come to roost in our house, but we’ll survive the layoffs at SCI.
I’m impressed with Stephanie and not so sure you do know who I would vote for in SHS v. JT. Politically, why would she try when patience would hand her TJ’s seat in a few years and she could make a truly solid run for the governor’s seat? Or, be a SHOO-IN for re-election to her House seat?
I agree with Anonymous that her recent votes diminish her ability to skate into the Governor’s mansion. Time is on her side. But folks here won’t forget trillion-dollar votes on bills she doesn’t bother to read. She’ll have to overcome those and it won’t be easy.
My bet is she stays where she is and ascends to the Senate via TJ’s decision to not seek another term.
I cannot believe that SHS wouldn’t come back to South Dakota to raise her child. It says something about her “home.”
Herseth running against Thune was about a 20% possibility a year ago. Now it’s down to like 4% because she keeps making terrible votes in Congress like voting for the trillion dollar stimulus bill and backing the anti-business bill pushed by big labor. She could still run for gov however.