The hunt for a congressional candidate.
We’re just shy of 9 months out from the 2010 primary election. And while there’s a virtual plethora of gubernatorial hopefuls who are actively out on the campaign trail… It’s a little quieter on the GOP side in terms of making a firm commitment that they’re in the hunt for Congress against Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.
Newcomer Thad Wasson is the only candidate who has come out firmly and said “he’s in.” In fact, he was so ready that said he was ready to circulate petitions… until someone pointed out you can’t do that until this next year. But, he shouldn’t be faulted for his enthusiasm.
Thad has probably the biggest mountain to climb in terms of name identification and money – two huge factors in any election. Yes, there are those who will say that the issues are what count. But take it from me, especially in South Dakota where retail politics rule, first they have to know your name and possibly even shake your hand to take your measure before they begin to care what your politics are.
Thad is probably the dark horse in the race. But, that’s not all bad. In a year when people are enraged at the establishment over government intervention (bailouts, Obamacare) and federal proposals which stand to raise taxes (Cap and Tax), being the average Joe on the outside might not be such a bad place to be.
My Advice to Thad? You need to come up with a stump speech to end all stump speeches. Then get out and go tell your story. You can do it without a ton of money, but you have to be inspirational and exude that charismatic quality that I call visionary leadership.
State Representative and Orthopedic Surgeon R. Blake Curd’s name keeps popping up on the radar at a plethora of health care related events, anti-government intervention rallies, and other gatherings around around the state. And recently I’d heard his name being mulled over as a potential congressional contender.
He’s been a go to guy for the people protesting health care, so he could potentially enter the race with a solid base of supporters willing to go to work. That could be a plus, as the last candidate Republicans had in the race, Chris Lien, had money to run the contest, but his candidacy failed to find that “hook” issue to catch the attention of supporters beyond the core GOP constituency, only getting to a 68-32% split in a state that’s supposed to be Republican.
Presidential electoral politics in 2008 helped to doom Lien as well. It was a year of an anti-republican tidal wave nationally. And in Red State South Dakota, even the Democratic presidential ticket picked up an additional 6 points of gain from 2004.
Expect 2010 to be a much different year. I’ve spoken with pundits who see the next election as a perfect storm for Republicans who saw the last election as a big kick in the tail. That, coupled with an electorate that’s severely fired up.
When did you last hear terms like encroaching socialism being used in the mainstream press? The 60’s or 70’s? Guess what – Thanks to Obama it’s back and a broad segment of the public are openly concerned about our federal government overreaching into the private sector. My advice to Representative Curd? If you’re going to do it, jump in with both feet and say so. You’ve got the wind in your sails if you want to capture the moment.
Of course, last but certainly not least is South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson.
He has publicly indicated that he’s exploring a run for the race, since he is now term limited and prevented from seeking another term at the wheel of the Secretary of State’s office. Out of all the candidates, Chris has the strongest name identification coming from his years as elections supervisor under his predecessor Joyce Hazeltine, and during his own tenure at the office.
Of all the public officials in the state of South Dakota, Chris Nelson’s name would arguably poll towards the highest in terms of integrity. Not a bad position to start from when you’re taking on an incumbent. Chris would likely rely on a GOP network of grassroot supporters in his race – contacts that he’s cultivated over his years of public service.
My advice to Chris? Just like Representative Curd, If you’re going to do it, the time to strike while the iron is hot. Get the press release out saying you’re in, and start moving forward. Every day’s delay in doing so gives others a chance to jump ahead.
And identify your issues. While Curd has the issues, you have the name ID which is the more enviable position. Now you need to give voters a salient reason why it is in their best interest to unseat an incumbent.
From having my ear to the ground, that’s my take on it. Have you heard of anyone else looking at the race? If so, drop me a note here.
Stay tuned.
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Comments
Curd wins the tricorner hat vote and no one else. No chance against SHS… unless he shaves the goatee and goes for Knuppe handlebars.
Nelson-Curd-Wasson primary? Nelson wins hands down. Of those mentioned above, only Nelson stands a chance (a good chance) of challenging SHS with a combination of policy credibility, appeal to the middle, and nice-guy-ness.
Sandlin is vulnerable! If this economy is still the same she is doomed. That is one reason she is playing roper dope on healthcare. Where are Stephanie and Tim? Chris Nelson is a great campaigner, the Dems think so too, they didn’t even run against him last time.
Dan Lederman’s name should be on this list. As far as I’m concerned he should be on everyone’s list of possible candidates.
Lederman for Congress!!!
Nelson has integrity and is beyond reproach. That is what we need to beat Stephanie.
Nelson also holds the keys to the voter data!
Chris would have to shave the 80’s porn upperlip.
I would like to see Deb Peters get in the race. Nice comments about Kenedy passing last week in the Argus!
Nelson is a good one. Experienced. Speaks well; motivates his listeners. Very nice. Has integrity. Has a chance to raise decent money. But must shave that mustache. Sorry to say, but it is a must.
Nelson would have a cakewalk to the governor’s office. He shouldn’t waste his time in a long shot to be one, a tiny one, of four hundred thirty-five.
Face it. There is no “wind in the sails” in a state that needed a $70 million federal stimulus bailout to balance its budget. When South Dakotans become self-reliant instead of reliant on federal bailouts – then the tricorner tin hats will have something to crow about.
6 Months agao I would have said SHS against the field and even given odds. Now I am not so sure. The no town halls, no recording, and Nancy P. could just sink her I am sorry to say.
Chris Nelson, South Dakota and our Country needs you. Help us get rid of someone who hides from her voters. Sandlin is more like Pelosi every day.
Pat how’d you miss out on this listing. I believe this is Blake’s modest home now on the market. Makes Heidi’s pad look like shanty town.
http://www.homefinder.com/SD/Sioux_Falls/51327394d_38_South_Riverview_Unkn
You just can’t do much for $2.8 million any more. A real man of the people. I am glad he’s looking out for me on healthcare reform.
What kind of income do you have to have to pay for a $2.8 million house?
Hey, oldguy: how are you going to make the Nancy P stuff stick when SHS’s real problem is that she’s going to lose her Dem base with her anti-Nancy Blue Doggery?
Danged if you do, danged if you don’t….
Cory,
SHS has always been elected by a margin of independents and registered Republicans. She’s likely lost many of them for the 2010 elections and, as you point out, she’s likely alienating some of her Democratic base, as well.
The GOP has to do its part though, by selecting AND funding a strong challenger.
This is a great story PP!
Out of the candidates you listed Blake Curd would have to be the guy I would select. I think he is the only one capable of creating enthusiasm against Herseth.
I think Chris Nelson has done a solid job as Secretary of State but I question his abbility to motivate people.
As for Thad Wassen all I can say is WHO? I don’t want to sit through another Dykstra, Kephart, Gonyo primary. That was a nightmare at LDD’s.