As we come to the close, here are my House Race Predictions

Jeez… the more I look at it, the more I think the election in South Dakota is going to be an electoral disaster for Democrats.

District

Race

Name

Party

Predictions

Notes

District 01

State Representative

Steven D. McCleerey

DEM

Dem Over

 

District 01

State Representative

Susan Wismer

DEM

Dem Over

District 02

State Representative

John Graham

DEM

 

Graham against 2
incumbents. GOP should do well.

District 02

State Representative

Lana Greenfield

REP

GOP

District 02

State Representative

Burt Tulson

REP

GOP

District 03

State Representative

Nikki Bootz

DEM

 

This was never a race.

District 03

State Representative

Brooks Briscoe

DEM

 

District 03

State Representative

Drew Dennert

REP

GOP

District 03

State Representative

Daniel Kaiser

REP

GOP

District 04

State Representative

Matt Rosdahl

DEM

 

Democrats didn’t run a race. At all. 

District 04

State Representative

Peggy Schuelke

DEM

 

District 04

State Representative

John Mills

REP

GOP

District 04

State Representative

Jason W. Kettwig

REP

GOP

District 05

State Representative

Michele Alvine

DEM

 

District 05

State Representative

Charles “Chuck”
Haan

IND

 

District 05

State Representative

Hugh M. Bartels

REP

GOP

District 05

State Representative

Nancy York

REP

GOP

District 06

State Representative

Clara Hart

DEM

 

Latterell and Otten will win. This is not a contest. Hart was loaded with cash, but I don’t know if it was evident.

District 06

State Representative

Kyle Rogers

DEM

 

District 06

State Representative

Isaac Latterell

REP

GOP

District 06

State Representative

Herman Otten

REP

GOP

District 07

State Representative

Linda A. Brandt

DEM

 

Reed will win, and Hawley
will win. It’s the Brookings way for the State’s biggest swing district.

District 07

State Representative

Spencer Hawley

DEM

Dem

District 07

State Representative

Tim Reed

REP

GOP

District 08

State Representative

Kory Rawstern

DEM

 

Word is Unger is running stronger than expected, but I expect Heinemann as incumbent to be safe. 

District 08

State Representative

Jason Unger

DEM

 

District 08

State Representative

Leslie Heinemann

REP

GOP

District 08

State Representative

Mathew Wollmann

REP

GOP

District 09

State Representative

Mark G. Guthmiller

DEM

 

This is a toss-up district. Saba spent money, but Clark is well thought of. 

District 09

State Representative

Michael Saba

DEM

Toss up

District 09

State Representative

Michael Clark

REP

Toss up

District 09

State Representative

Wayne H. Steinhauer

REP

GOP

District 10

State Representative

Dean Kurtz

DEM

 

This District will remain
strong GOP.

District 10

State Representative

Paul Vanderlinde

DEM

 

District 10

State Representative

Don Haggar

REP

GOP

District 10

State Representative

Steven Haugaard

REP

GOP

District 11

State Representative

Leona Weiland

DEM

 

District 11

State Representative

Paul Schipper

DEM

 

District 11

State Representative

Chris Karr

REP

GOP

District 11

State Representative

Mark K Willadsen

REP

GOP

District 12

State Representative

Bob Benson

DEM

 

District 12

State Representative

Susan Randall

DEM

 

District 12

State Representative

Arch Beal

REP

GOP

District 12

State Representative

Greg Jamison

REP

GOP

District 13

State Representative

P. James Eckhoff Jr

DEM

 

.

District 13

State Representative

Ellee Spawn

DEM

 

District 13

State Representative

G. Mark Mickelson

REP

GOP

District 13

State Representative

Sue Lucas-Peterson

REP

GOP

District 14

State Representative

Valerie Loudenback

DEM

 

LaPlante was a good substitution, but Holmes & Zikmund are good campaigners. Advantage GOP.

District 14

State Representative

Michael LaPlante

DEM

 

District 14

State Representative

Tom Holmes

REP

GOP

District 14

State Representative

Larry P. Zikmund

REP

GOP

District 15

State Representative

Jamie Smith

DEM

 

Leggett has had a go around before, and ready to go this year. Myers apparently moved to Minn.

District 15

State Representative

Karen Soli

DEM

Dem

District 15

State Representative

Eric Leggett

IND

Indy

District 15

State Representative

Mike Myers

IND

 

District 16

State Representative

Ted Curry

DEM

 

I don’t have a good enough read, but my people down there indicate Tornberg hasn’t run half the race she did last time. 

District 16

State Representative

Ann Tornberg

DEM

 

District 16

State Representative

Kevin D. Jensen

REP

GOP

District 16

State Representative

David L. Anderson

REP

GOP

District 17

State Representative

Ray Ring

DEM

Dem

The incumbents will be
tough to beat.

District 17

State Representative

Mark Winegar

DEM

 

District 17

State Representative

Debbie Pease

REP

 

District 17

State Representative

Nancy Rasmussen

REP

GOP

District 18

State Representative

David Allen

DEM

 

Hunhoff & Stevens will dominate the race.

District 18

State Representative

Peter Rossiter

DEM

 

District 18

State Representative

Jean M. Hunhoff

REP

GOP

District 18

State Representative

Mike Stevens

REP

GOP

District 19

State Representative

Melissa Mentele

DEM

 

District 19

State Representative

Kent S. Peterson

REP

GOP

District 19

State Representative

Kyle Schoenfish

REP

GOP

District 20

State Representative

Lance Carson

REP

GOP

 

District 20

State Representative

Tona Rozum

REP

GOP

District 21

State Representative

Juile Bartling

DEM

Strong Dem

Another one for each
party here. Even the Republicans like Julie (possibly because she votes with
them on many issues).

District 21

State Representative

Gary Burrus

DEM

 

District 21

State Representative

Lee Qualm

REP

Strong GOP

District 22

State Representative

Carmen Dannenbring

DEM

District 22

State Representative

Joan Wollschlager

DEM

District 22

State Representative

Roger Chase

REP

GOP

District 22

State Representative

Bob Glanzer

REP

GOP

District 23

State Representative

John A. Lake

REP

GOP Over

 

District 23

State Representative

Spencer Gosch

REP

GOP Over

District 24

State Representative

Mary Duvall

REP

GOP Over

 

District 24

State Representative

Tim Rounds

REP

GOP Over

District 25

State Representative

David Haagenson

DEM

 

I want Pischke to win, because he’s a good guy, and a good candidate. But you can’t always get what you want.

District 25

State Representative

Dan Ahlers

DEM

Toss Up

District 25

State Representative

Roger Hunt

REP

GOP

District 25

State Representative

Tom Pischke

REP

Toss Up

District 26A

State Representative

Shawn Bordeaux

DEM

Dem Over

 

District 26B

State Representative

James Schaefer

REP

GOP Over

 

District 27

State Representative

Jim Bradford

DEM

Dem

This is tough territory for the GOP, and conventional wisdom is that Liz May’s luck may have run out.

District 27

State Representative

Red Dawn Foster

DEM

Toss Up

District 27

State Representative

Steve Livermont

REP

District 27

State Representative

Elizabeth May

REP

Toss Up

District 28A

State Representative

Oren Lesmeister

DEM

Dem Over

 

District 28B

State Representative

Sam Marty

REP

GOP Over

 

District 29

State Representative

Thomas J. Brunner

REP

GOP Over

 

District 29

State Representative

Larry Rhoden

REP

GOP Over

District 30

State Representative

Sandy Arseneault

DEM

 

Dems are not elected in
this District, but the county extension officer might give you a dollar for
each tail you bring in. This race is over.

District 30

State Representative

Kristine Ina Winter

DEM

 

District 30

State Representative

Julie Frye-Mueller

REP

GOP

District 30

State Representative

Tim R. Goodwin

REP

GOP

District 31

State Representative

Timothy R. Johns

REP

GOP Over

 

District 31

State Representative

Charles M. Turbiville

REP

GOP Over

District 32

State Representative

Nik Aberle

DEM

 

This race is over.

District 32

State Representative

Susan Kelts

DEM

 

District 32

State Representative

Sean McPherson

REP

GOP

District 32

State Representative

Kristin A. Conzet

REP

GOP

District 33

State Representative

Jim Hadd

DEM

 

This race is over.

District 33

State Representative

Ethan Marsland

DEM

 

District 33

State Representative

Taffy Howard

REP

GOP

District 33

State Representative

David Johnson

REP

GOP

District 34

State Representative

Steve Stenson

DEM

 

This race is over.

District 34

State Representative

Dan Dryden/Dave Lust

REP

GOP

District 34

State Representative

Craig Tieszen

REP

GOP

District 35

State Representative

Dave Freytag

DEM

 

This race is over.

District 35

State Representative

Michael T Hanson

DEM

 

District 35

State Representative

Blaine “Chip”
Campbell

REP

GOP

District 35

State Representative

Lynne DiSanto

REP

GOP

I don’t see any good news in the card for Democrats, as Republicans continue to maintain what would normally be impossibly high numbers of legislators.

After going through the past 2 legislative sessions with a count of 58 Republicans to 12 Democrats, in taking the thousand foot view of this years’ house races, I’m coming up with a count of 57 Republican Seats, 9 Democrats, 3 toss ups, and 1 Independent (Kudos to Eric Leggett, whom I hear has really gone after it this year).

If we give all the toss-up races to Democrats… that would leave them at 12, with Republicans losing 1 seat to an independent who would probably vote with them on most issues anyway.

Even if the GOP loses one or two that I’m counting in our column at the moment, there’s not a lot for Democrats to cheer about. They’ve taken their dismal number of legislators, and managed to maintain it.

7 Replies to “As we come to the close, here are my House Race Predictions”

  1. Anonymous

    Looking through campaign finance reports I was impressed to see Drew Dennert getting campaign money from Rounds. Both Rounds and Dennert make me proud. I like how they are both constructive conservatives.

  2. Troy Jones

    Have no idea why I noticed this but maybe the nerd in me. There is a near pattern there. Maybe Nikki’s real name is Kikki and that would make it perfect. Or Dan’s last name is Naiser. You never know. Birth certificates can get screwed up or the person at Ellis Island didn’t understand the person’s language.

    District Two candidates have the following Initials.

    NB
    BB
    DD
    DK

  3. Spencer

    District 17 could be interesting. Pease and Ring spent the same on their campaigns. Pease had a big online presence. It could be close.