Jeez… the more I look at it, the more I think the election in South Dakota is going to be an electoral disaster for Democrats.
|
District |
Race |
Name |
Party |
Predictions |
Notes |
|
District 01 |
State Representative |
Steven D. McCleerey |
DEM |
Dem Over |
|
|
District 01 |
State Representative |
Susan Wismer |
DEM |
Dem Over |
|
|
District 02 |
State Representative |
John Graham |
DEM |
|
Graham against 2 |
|
District 02 |
State Representative |
Lana Greenfield |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 02 |
State Representative |
Burt Tulson |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 03 |
State Representative |
Nikki Bootz |
DEM |
|
This was never a race. |
|
District 03 |
State Representative |
Brooks Briscoe |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 03 |
State Representative |
Drew Dennert |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 03 |
State Representative |
Daniel Kaiser |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 04 |
State Representative |
Matt Rosdahl |
DEM |
|
Democrats didn’t run a race. At all. |
|
District 04 |
State Representative |
Peggy Schuelke |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 04 |
State Representative |
John Mills |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 04 |
State Representative |
Jason W. Kettwig |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 05 |
State Representative |
Michele Alvine |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 05 |
State Representative |
Charles “Chuck” |
IND |
|
|
|
District 05 |
State Representative |
Hugh M. Bartels |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 05 |
State Representative |
Nancy York |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 06 |
State Representative |
Clara Hart |
DEM |
|
Latterell and Otten will win. This is not a contest. Hart was loaded with cash, but I don’t know if it was evident. |
|
District 06 |
State Representative |
Kyle Rogers |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 06 |
State Representative |
Isaac Latterell |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 06 |
State Representative |
Herman Otten |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 07 |
State Representative |
Linda A. Brandt |
DEM |
|
Reed will win, and Hawley |
|
District 07 |
State Representative |
Spencer Hawley |
DEM |
Dem |
|
|
District 07 |
State Representative |
Tim Reed |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 08 |
State Representative |
Kory Rawstern |
DEM |
|
Word is Unger is running stronger than expected, but I expect Heinemann as incumbent to be safe. |
|
District 08 |
State Representative |
Jason Unger |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 08 |
State Representative |
Leslie Heinemann |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 08 |
State Representative |
Mathew Wollmann |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 09 |
State Representative |
Mark G. Guthmiller |
DEM |
|
This is a toss-up district. Saba spent money, but Clark is well thought of. |
|
District 09 |
State Representative |
Michael Saba |
DEM |
Toss up |
|
|
District 09 |
State Representative |
Michael Clark |
REP |
Toss up |
|
|
District 09 |
State Representative |
Wayne H. Steinhauer |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 10 |
State Representative |
Dean Kurtz |
DEM |
|
This District will remain |
|
District 10 |
State Representative |
Paul Vanderlinde |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 10 |
State Representative |
Don Haggar |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 10 |
State Representative |
Steven Haugaard |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 11 |
State Representative |
Leona Weiland |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 11 |
State Representative |
Paul Schipper |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 11 |
State Representative |
Chris Karr |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 11 |
State Representative |
Mark K Willadsen |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 12 |
State Representative |
Bob Benson |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 12 |
State Representative |
Susan Randall |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 12 |
State Representative |
Arch Beal |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 12 |
State Representative |
Greg Jamison |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 13 |
State Representative |
P. James Eckhoff Jr |
DEM |
|
. |
|
District 13 |
State Representative |
Ellee Spawn |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 13 |
State Representative |
G. Mark Mickelson |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 13 |
State Representative |
Sue Lucas-Peterson |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 14 |
State Representative |
Valerie Loudenback |
DEM |
|
LaPlante was a good substitution, but Holmes & Zikmund are good campaigners. Advantage GOP. |
|
District 14 |
State Representative |
Michael LaPlante |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 14 |
State Representative |
Tom Holmes |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 14 |
State Representative |
Larry P. Zikmund |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 15 |
State Representative |
Jamie Smith |
DEM |
Leggett has had a go around before, and ready to go this year. Myers apparently moved to Minn. |
|
|
District 15 |
State Representative |
Karen Soli |
DEM |
Dem |
|
|
District 15 |
State Representative |
Eric Leggett |
IND |
Indy |
|
|
District 15 |
State Representative |
Mike Myers |
IND |
|
|
|
District 16 |
State Representative |
Ted Curry |
DEM |
|
I don’t have a good enough read, but my people down there indicate Tornberg hasn’t run half the race she did last time. |
|
District 16 |
State Representative |
Ann Tornberg |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 16 |
State Representative |
Kevin D. Jensen |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 16 |
State Representative |
David L. Anderson |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 17 |
State Representative |
Ray Ring |
DEM |
Dem |
The incumbents will be |
|
District 17 |
State Representative |
Mark Winegar |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 17 |
State Representative |
Debbie Pease |
REP |
|
|
|
District 17 |
State Representative |
Nancy Rasmussen |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 18 |
State Representative |
David Allen |
DEM |
|
Hunhoff & Stevens will dominate the race. |
|
District 18 |
State Representative |
Peter Rossiter |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 18 |
State Representative |
Jean M. Hunhoff |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 18 |
State Representative |
Mike Stevens |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 19 |
State Representative |
Melissa Mentele |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 19 |
State Representative |
Kent S. Peterson |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 19 |
State Representative |
Kyle Schoenfish |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 20 |
State Representative |
Lance Carson |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 20 |
State Representative |
Tona Rozum |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 21 |
State Representative |
Juile Bartling |
DEM |
Strong Dem |
Another one for each |
|
District 21 |
State Representative |
Gary Burrus |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 21 |
State Representative |
Lee Qualm |
REP |
Strong GOP |
|
|
District 22 |
State Representative |
Carmen Dannenbring |
DEM |
||
|
District 22 |
State Representative |
Joan Wollschlager |
DEM |
||
|
District 22 |
State Representative |
Roger Chase |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 22 |
State Representative |
Bob Glanzer |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 23 |
State Representative |
John A. Lake |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 23 |
State Representative |
Spencer Gosch |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 24 |
State Representative |
Mary Duvall |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 24 |
State Representative |
Tim Rounds |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 25 |
State Representative |
David Haagenson |
DEM |
|
I want Pischke to win, because he’s a good guy, and a good candidate. But you can’t always get what you want. |
|
District 25 |
State Representative |
Dan Ahlers |
DEM |
Toss Up |
|
|
District 25 |
State Representative |
Roger Hunt |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 25 |
State Representative |
Tom Pischke |
REP |
Toss Up |
|
|
District 26A |
State Representative |
Shawn Bordeaux |
DEM |
Dem Over |
|
|
District 26B |
State Representative |
James Schaefer |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 27 |
State Representative |
Jim Bradford |
DEM |
Dem |
This is tough territory for the GOP, and conventional wisdom is that Liz May’s luck may have run out. |
|
District 27 |
State Representative |
Red Dawn Foster |
DEM |
Toss Up |
|
|
District 27 |
State Representative |
Steve Livermont |
REP |
|
|
|
District 27 |
State Representative |
Elizabeth May |
REP |
Toss Up |
|
|
District 28A |
State Representative |
Oren Lesmeister |
DEM |
Dem Over |
|
|
District 28B |
State Representative |
Sam Marty |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 29 |
State Representative |
Thomas J. Brunner |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 29 |
State Representative |
Larry Rhoden |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 30 |
State Representative |
Sandy Arseneault |
DEM |
|
Dems are not elected in |
|
District 30 |
State Representative |
Kristine Ina Winter |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 30 |
State Representative |
Julie Frye-Mueller |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 30 |
State Representative |
Tim R. Goodwin |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 31 |
State Representative |
Timothy R. Johns |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 31 |
State Representative |
Charles M. Turbiville |
REP |
GOP Over |
|
|
District 32 |
State Representative |
Nik Aberle |
DEM |
|
This race is over. |
|
District 32 |
State Representative |
Susan Kelts |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 32 |
State Representative |
Sean McPherson |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 32 |
State Representative |
Kristin A. Conzet |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 33 |
State Representative |
Jim Hadd |
DEM |
|
This race is over. |
|
District 33 |
State Representative |
Ethan Marsland |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 33 |
State Representative |
Taffy Howard |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 33 |
State Representative |
David Johnson |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 34 |
State Representative |
Steve Stenson |
DEM |
|
This race is over. |
|
District 34 |
State Representative |
Dan Dryden/Dave Lust |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 34 |
State Representative |
Craig Tieszen |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 35 |
State Representative |
Dave Freytag |
DEM |
|
This race is over. |
|
District 35 |
State Representative |
Michael T Hanson |
DEM |
|
|
|
District 35 |
State Representative |
Blaine “Chip” |
REP |
GOP |
|
|
District 35 |
State Representative |
Lynne DiSanto |
REP |
GOP |
I don’t see any good news in the card for Democrats, as Republicans continue to maintain what would normally be impossibly high numbers of legislators.
After going through the past 2 legislative sessions with a count of 58 Republicans to 12 Democrats, in taking the thousand foot view of this years’ house races, I’m coming up with a count of 57 Republican Seats, 9 Democrats, 3 toss ups, and 1 Independent (Kudos to Eric Leggett, whom I hear has really gone after it this year).
If we give all the toss-up races to Democrats… that would leave them at 12, with Republicans losing 1 seat to an independent who would probably vote with them on most issues anyway.
Even if the GOP loses one or two that I’m counting in our column at the moment, there’s not a lot for Democrats to cheer about. They’ve taken their dismal number of legislators, and managed to maintain it.
Looking through campaign finance reports I was impressed to see Drew Dennert getting campaign money from Rounds. Both Rounds and Dennert make me proud. I like how they are both constructive conservatives.
Eric is Legit!
It would be nice to see an independent in the legislature again..Go Eric
Have no idea why I noticed this but maybe the nerd in me. There is a near pattern there. Maybe Nikki’s real name is Kikki and that would make it perfect. Or Dan’s last name is Naiser. You never know. Birth certificates can get screwed up or the person at Ellis Island didn’t understand the person’s language.
District Two candidates have the following Initials.
NB
BB
DD
DK
As long as mark Winegar of Vermillion doesn’t win…sounds pretty anti-gun to me
District 17 could be interesting. Pease and Ring spent the same on their campaigns. Pease had a big online presence. It could be close.
Schulke-Mills race in 4 might be competitive.