I still believe the Republican Presidential Primary is a race between Jeb Bush and . . . . . (with my gut telling me the “and” is Rand Paul) and the General Election will be against Hillary Clinton.
However, three things recently happened which might give us a new “and-” Carly Fiorina:
1) MSNBC limosine liberal Andrea Mitchell and Hillary sycophant thinks she has a gotcha question for Fiorina regarding Iraq and Carly turns it around and says “every single Republican candidate has been asked about their vote for the war in Iraq. The one person who’s not been asked that question, because she won’t answer the question is Hillary Clinton. One person who was on the job in 2011, when Iraq started to fall apart, was not the Republican nominees or — candidates for president, it’s Hillary Clinton. she hasn’t been asked yet. What would she do now in Iraq?” Reminded me of Reagan’s take-off on Teddy Roosevelt when he said about Iran and the hostages, “(Carter) speaks loudly and carries a fly swatter.”
2) As we all know, Hillary Clinton has become infamous for not taking questions from the press. Anyway, Hillary is hosting a roundtable OBSERVABLE by the press in a South Carolina hotel. Florina decides to have a press conference in the same hotel on the same day where Florina will actually take questions from the press. Reminded me when Reagan took his anti-Communism to the Berlin Wall and dared Gorbachev to “tear down this wall.”
3) Not only was Carly given the biggest kudos for a recent Iowa Lincoln Day Dinner (11 GOP presidential candidates were there), she didn’t pretend to be “Iowan” as she found it remarkable breakfast in Iowa was “huge cinnamon rolls” or going to a Pizza Ranch (she called it “Pizza Palace”). Reminds me of when Reagan was asked what he thought about Clint Eastwood running for Mayor and said “What makes him think a middle-aged actor who played with a chimp could have a future in politics.”
Few people can use pointed rhetoric, take the fight to their opponent, and remain personally humble. Might the dark horse to take on a former Secretary of State be a former Kelly Girl secretary?
Sidenote- Current Vegas odds on the next US President (different sites have slightly different numbers):
1/1 (even odds)-Hillary Clinton, 4/1-Jeb Bush, 7/1-Scott Walker, 8/1-Marco Rubio, 16/1-Rand Paul, 33/1-Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz, Mitt Romney, Joe Biden, 66/1-Carly Fiorina, Rahm Emmanuel.
Update: Former Governor of NY, George somebody just announced. He is definitely a guy looking to be Veep or in the cabinet. Traction out of the NE is definitely not likely and puts a damper on Christie.
“The one person who’s not been asked that question, because she won’t answer the question is Hillary Clinton.”—Perhaps because she clearly answered that question in her book long before Jeb was asked….She said “I was wrong”..Is
Carly” ignorant of that fact? Probably not, just like many lies by conservatives, she depends on her target audience being too ignorant of the facts to recognize a lie….and it works all the time.
you have clumsily sidestepped the point of fiorina’s answer, i.e. THE PRESS is picking and choosing who gets tough treatment, who endures the ‘gotcha’ takedowns and who gets the supreme buttkissing they give to their favorites. hillary’s unremarkable ‘i was wrong’ referred to her senate vote, and was a simple butt-covering mea culpa to grease the skids and make nice with the democrat base in advance of her last presidential run. fiorina is right to point out that hilary is treated differently, and right to do it in a style that evokes the firmness of jeane kirkpatrick.
i’m with troy, i like this lady a lot.
if the democrats are hell bent on putting up the worst woman they could find, why can’t we increase the obvious folly of it all by putting up the absolute best female alternative to her?
I didn’t read her “book” of socialist propaganda. I wouldn’t read anything she writes because she, like Billy, is a liar, and I don’t need to waste my time.
If Hillary can’t be bothered to be asked questions by the media-and not just the lap dogs like Georgie Steph-but real journalists, she shouldn’t be taken seriously. But socialists don’t care about content, just party.
People who defend Hillary are probably liars themselves, and it is a pity they help determine who is going to lead this country.
I like her, she fights.
She’s very articulate, well prepared and “quick on her feet.”
It appears that the Democrats are leaning toward a Clinton/Castro ticket to highlight a “Woman/Latino” ticket.
Fiorina could cause the Dems trouble if she’s on a presidential ticket, and I think a Walker/Fiorina would be a powerful combination for the GOP.
I’ll grant you, I don’t see either Bush or Clinton as the “inevitable” winners of their respective parties candidates. Despite their cash and connections, the grassroots of both parties are actively seeking alternatives.
“Bush v Clinton,” Back to the Future?
The Democrats may not really have viable alternatives. Although O’Malley seems the most viable at the moment, he certainly is vulnerable in the general election. Their next strongest candidate is a declared SOCIALIST!
The GOP has a much deeper bench, but could undercut itself if the primaries get ugly. Personally, I’m leaning Walker at this point, but there are certainly others I’d consider before (relunctently) supporting Bush.
My fear, is that despite the fact that given NO OTHER CHOICE than Jeb Bush and Clinton or O’Malley I’d “hold my nose” and vote for Bush, I really think if he’s the candidate the GOTV effort for the GOP would pale in comparison to the Democrats.
The “vision thing” has never been a strong suit for the Bush family and “going back to the 90’s” is hardly a direction for the 21st Century. Jeb’s been out of politics for over a decade, and it shows when he fluffs the softball questions over his brother’s policies that he KNOWS he’s going to be asked.
A Bush v Clinton general election might just hinge on how large the “all out of give a damn” and “it’s going to burn, let it burn” factions actually are.
From comments I hear from both parties loyalists and independents, they’re growing everyday.
NOBODY really seems excited about Bush or Clinton and if it just comes down to turning off everyone in the electorate that doesn’t have a vested interest in the outcome, the Democrats win.
William, I like Walker too but he has to show me something with regard to viability. Before you can win, you first have to get out of the pack bunched up behind the only two (Bush and Paul) who can pace themselves into next year. Rubio and Fiorina so far are the only ones showing me something which might become a surge. (Troy)
William, did you mean Fidel or Raul Castro with Clinton? She shares the ideology of both, but Fidel may be hampered by his health, even though he just won’t die.
Enquirer,
“I was wrong” isn’t a “answer” because it opens a question to her judgment. She has yet to explain why she was “wrong.”
Also, she was in the inner circle when Iraq started to unwind. Did she advise Obama a on strategy he didn’t take and if so what was the strategy? Or, if Obama and her agreed, doesn’t it make her responsible for the growing fiasco? Again, she has to answer for her judgment for as Florina says “she was on the job.”
If a Jim Webb or a Dianne Feinstien or Ron Wyden were to pull a Eugene McCarthy on her (ala LBJ) and announce as an anti-Obama/Clinton foreign policy candidate, you’d see the party looking for a Humphrey-like candidate (Mark Warner/Chuck Schumer) so fast it would make your head spin.
But they won’t and it will be Hillary. And, ultimately, she is going to have to answer questions on Iraq, on Afghanistan (which could be in chaos in a year with our pull-out) and Benghazi. And, screaming “What does it matter” will not work.
If the GOP candidates keep their eye on the ball (Hillary and White House) and not fight each other, the cream of our strong candidates will rise to the top and this election will look a lot like 1980- close polls until the end when finally the people just say “there is no there there.”
By the way if I were to rank the top candidates in order of likelihood now:
1) Bush (He might not be Reagan with regard to style but he is Reagan with regard to campaign muscle and competence honed by two terms as Governor and four Bush family Presidential races. People forget that by the time Reagan ran in 1980, he too had been up close and personal in four prior Presidential campaigns. Well-earned and well-learned experience matters at this level.)
2) Paul (ironically, Paul’s Libertarianism isn’t going to move him up or down. It will be his foreign policy. If the party moves isolationist in light of ISIS, he wins. If they go the other way, he is toast).
3) Rubio (My gut is he might go back to run for re-election to the Senate if he doesn’t move up a peg or get some distance between those below)
4) Fiorina (dark horse making a move)
5) Walker (biggest slip these last few months. Can’t put a finger on “it” but “it” has been lackluster)
6) Huckabee (can’t ignore he knows how to talk to social conservatives)
fascinating, thanks. regarding huckabee, i just don’t feel a connection to him at all, never have. he’s like ninety degrees off kilter from just about everything i think, not opposite exactly but just different enough to be barely comprehensible. and this duggars thing won’t go well for him.
Conservatives with no Libertarian tendencies love Huckabee and don’t “get” Paul. Huckabee thinks and talks with conservative words. Paul Libertarian. (Troy)
William the Indy’s will vote for the Republican this time around. Hillary is toast!
the wrong candidate, and the wrong campaign move can cost us the independents. you’ll never convince me that picking palin as vp in 2008 didn’t cost mccain the independents and the election.
I think an arguement can be made tha McCain cost Palin votes in the General Election 😉
McCain selected Palin in desperation when they realized they’d lost the base. They then handled both their selection, and support of her, as ineptly as possible.
McCain/Palin was the ticket, but never a “team” and such a tepid ticket that McCain’s staff undermined its support with the very voters they hoped to attract by it.
“William, I like Walker too but he has to show me something with regard to viability. Before you can win, you first have to get out of the pack bunched up behind the only two (Bush and Paul) who can pace themselves into next year. Rubio and Fiorina so far are the only ones showing me something which might become a surge. (Troy)”
Walker could certainly fade, given his early rise it’s a challenge to keep moving forward when he becomes the object of attack by others in the primary. That said, he’s essentially run 2 “national campaigns” in his recall and re-election campaigns. The Democrat “heavy hitters” went at him as hard as the could and came up short. He’s a “middle-class” fighter who’s been vetted, has executive level experience and appeals to both grassroots and “establishment” wings of the GOP. I’ll admit, I’ve met him and seen him in front of a crowd. He’s not the most stirring speaker, but he’s solid and, most importantly, he really relates to the audience (and they with him).
He’ll pull support from the Huckabee, Santorum, Carson, etc crowd once they begin to fade (which I think they will). Walker has “street cred” for reining in the public sector unions, defeating the “education bureacracy” and imposing fiscal restraints on government. He has “good enemies.”
Walker is a middle class guy that’s actually fought for a limited government, that’s not become personally enriched by his time in government. He’s the modern day equivilent of “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.” He’s got a “good story,” with results to back it up. Again, he has “good enemies.” Who really identifies with the “professional political class” or the “public sector unions?” Most public employees don’t actually belong to, or support their unions!
Rand Paul? I love Rand Paul, but I just don’t see “the love” spread far enough, particulary with the growing strength of ISIS, expansion in the Pacific by China and an aggressive Russia. Most US elections don’t hinge on Foreign Policy but this one may easily see it as a determining factor.
Fiornia? Don’t underestimate her, regardless of who you currently support. She’s a fighter, composed, tough, prepared and the ultimate foil to Hillary. The longer Hillary stays in the race, the better Fiorina looks. I honestly think she’ll be on the ticket, I’m just not sure which order she’ll appear on the ballot – lol If it’s Hillary for the Democrats, she could really be their worst nightmare.
It’s a LONG WAY to November 2016, but if the election were held today, I’d certainly feel like a Walker/Fiorina ticket would be a strong one.
I don’t disagree with you. Walker on paper is one of my favorites. His ability to win a purple state gives him standing beyond his issues. Just disappointed with what he has done and not done these last five months. Seems stalled. Without regard who I personally prefer (waver daily), today I think the strongest ticket would be Rubio and Fiorina (either order) just based on what they are doing today but both are just a gaffe away from disappearing. Only Bush and Paul in my mind have the current capacity to live through a gaffe or two. They have real bases and have assembled strong campaign and finance teams. (Troy)
Never underestimate a man who sits on a throne made of the skulls of his enemies. 😉
No doubt a compelling argument the I could be under-estimating Walker’s current status and prospects. (Troy)
if its bush vs paul, then bush wins it far and away because he’s close to traditional republican while paul is libertarian. let’s just say it. i agree with troy on the observations about bush’s viability despite what his detractors think. the real test is if you can get it done on the campaign trail and bush will either prove he can do it or he won’t.
During my lifetime, I’ve sensed the primary voter becoming more libertarian vs. conservative. Paul is smart, savvy, and a true Libertarian. Sincere convictions is attractive even to those who aren’t quite as convicted. My gut is Paul is will be at the tape in the end even in the two person race. And, my gut is also that Huckabee hurts Bush more than anyone (even more than Rubio). (Troy)
I don’t discount Jeb Bush as a “power player,” at all.
His family IS a political dynasty, but with all that entails. The money, the connections, the entrenched political alliances, the “best and brightest” of the political “players” is all theirs for the taking (and they’ve taken them). Jeb the “Juggernaut” is making his move and he’s more of a force within the party the Mitt Romney could ever hope to be.
The question, in my mind anyway, is THIS really in his favor in THIS election cycle” Have we, as a nation moved beyond “politics as usual” and is “The Game” no longer the same”
The phrase “This is the Most Important Election EVER” is both more true, yet more irrelevant than ever. The “Generals fighting the LAST WAR,” won’t necessarily have the skills to win the war of today, and those are the leaders of the Bush campaign.
I really try not to stay within a “political bubble” and I don’t find the “crawl over broken glasss” support for the “Establishment” candidates. I don’t think the normal “metrics” of campaigns are going to be determinant in this election.
I really don’t see alot of support for the “political establishment” from either the “Left” or “Right” and the Independants are all over the map. NOBODY is really happy with the “status quo” but the political extremes are more dominant than anytime I’ve seen in my lifetime.
A populist candidate will win in 2016. It will either be someone that can inspire a populist message of hope, prosperity, achievement and ambition or one of the redistribution of “undeserved wealth” that needs to be “managed” by the “best and the brightest (a “special class”).
The GOP needs a candidate that can represent and argue the position of upward mobility and hope to the middle and lower classes. The Democrats, particularly represented by the Clintons are those whose cronyism with the ultru-wealthy are legion are vulnerable IF ONLY THE GOP MAKES THE ATTACKS.
Scott Walker left college to take a JOB and has DEMONSTRATED experience as a Conservative Executive, Fiorina has repeatedly defended her decisions as an Executive who made tough choices that actually paid off in the long run.
IMHO, the biggest danger we face as a nation, is a bureacracy run amok, unaccountable to the Legislative or Judical branches, the only candidates basing their campaigns on limiting both Executive overreach domestically, yet facing global threats realistically are a limited few running for the GOP nomination.
The strongest candidates, in my mind today, are Walker, Fiorina, Rubio and …. (I hope it’s some combination of those three).
William, again I think you make great points. Not even sure I have a disagreement on the margins with two exceptions.
1) Jeb is not just his dad’s/brother’s relative and organization. He has to use your Jindal wonk reference an intimate interest in policy, a Walker-like ability to win in purple states, has Hispanic children and speaks fluent Spanish, has the most proven record on fighting for Life, and ran Florida in extra-ordinarily fiscally conservative way. His biggest handicap is his last name making the main question whether the organization trumps the dynasty or the dynasty trumps the organization.
2) I hear all the time this election will be different, a populist message will win, anti-dynasty, etc. And, it ends up not being that much different. I’ve made more wrong calls betting this will be an exception than when I applied historical results to current elections.
Bottomline: Of our top-tier candidates there is none of them I wouldn’t gladly accept and support as our nominee. Think about it. We have great Governor’s like Mike Pence and Suzanne Martinez who can’t even get a breath of air in the room filled with our candidates. Democrats can’t even fill a hand with five capable, viable candidates but instead have all their eggs on Hillary. Maybe more significantly, I hear no whispers from the politically sophisticated Democrats salivating to run against one of our top candidates. They know they are all going to be darn tough and whatever their “weakness” their candidate likely has it too and in most cases worse. (Troy)
I’ll add, I really like Bobby Jindahl, but think he’s more likely to end up in a Cabinet position.
He’s probably the smartest policy “wonk” of the bunch. – lol
I think the top 3 are Bush, Rubio and Walker.
Good column Troy.
Rand is starting to come off too much like his Dad to have much traction.
I agree that Fiorina is quite good but I think Rubio is the real rival to Jeb and he might steal Florida from Jeb.
“There you go, again.” – some obscure politician FoxNews (the host of the first debate) has decided only 10 candidates may participate based on poll ranking. Will they really exclude the only woman and the only African-American? What’s more entertaining than a stage of older angry white males picking at each others idiosyncrasies? (A born again Doctor on trial? nahhh!)
Enquirer you have a good point. Sarah Palin infuriates the left and pumps up the GOP base but being a great cheerleader certainly doesn’t quantify you as a political game player. And in retrospect America was very tired of nation building in a country with zero chance of ever being a democracy. McCain’s consistent war mongering and 100% support for more money being appropriated for Middle Eastern dictators helped give us the President Obama. Sadly American politicians are the best spreaders of wrongdoing anywhere in the world.
This field is getting more crowded each week. Will Christie get in the race? Trump? Others? Huckabee said he’s not even participating in the Iowa straw poll. Obviously there is much much more to come.