KELO Radio – New Poll shows Jackley & Noem neck in neck

From KELO Radio, a new poll was announced that shows Republican Gubernatorial contenders Marty Jackley & Kristi Noem competing within the poll’s margin of error:

The poll by Moore Information has Noem at 40 percent; Jackley at 35 percent; former legislator Lora Hubbel at 5 percent, and Dr. Terry La Fleur at 2 percent.

18 percent are undecided.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus of 6 percent and polled 300 likely Republican voters.

Read it all here.

52 Replies to “KELO Radio – New Poll shows Jackley & Noem neck in neck”

    1. KM

      10:09 – So…because you don’t know anyone supporting Noem that’s evidence supporters don’t exist? Nice.

      I have a feeling you’re not really interested in finding Noem supporters. Visit her FB page, plenty of people support her. Or are those accounts Russian bots? Would donations to her campaign convince you many people want her to be our next governor? Russian bots again? Maybe you’re a supporter trying to get feedback, that happens a lot here too.

      1. Anonymous

        Yes. Donations would convince me but most of her donations are from out of state special interests.

        Jackley seems to have more support in SD from individuals.

        Noem’s support mostly came in a $1.6 million transfer of federal funds.

  1. Anonymous

    The polling results:

    SD Governor’s Race – GOP Primary

    40% Kristi Noem

    35% Marty Jackley

    5% Lora Hubbel

    2% Terry La Fleur

    18% Don’t know/none

    How is Congress Doing?

    65% Disapprove

    32% Approve

    3% Don’t know

    Looks like Marty has to do a better job of tying her to Congress.

  2. Anonymous

    Marty has guts. I think most people thought Kristi would walk away with this thing and he’s in the margin of error. HOLY CRAP! She is in trouble if this is legit.

    Kristi has run 4 statewide races and 5 if you count her primary.

    Marty has only run against Volesky and Haber in elections.

    Everyone and their dog knows who Kristi Noem is.

    Jackley is in a great position. He just needs to get his personal story out there more.

    1. Randy

      After tax reform passed, I figured Kristi would run away with this race, but it looks like this is going to be a nail biter. I bet Kristi ends up going negative to slow Marty down.

  3. Anonymous

    A great battle is heating up. Marty is scrappy, aggressive and competitive and can imagine what he was like as a competitor running Cross Country. Kristi has name recognition from being in Congress and has the financial resources and organization. Both are well liked within the party. This will be great to see how it all plays out in the primary.

  4. Viz

    Jackley has been telling me for months that’s he’s ahead in the polls. Apparently he was lying. This is a big setback for Jackley

  5. Bubbles

    Good point Viz.

    The political class in Pierre said this race was over and Jackley would win easy.


    Maybe we can finally drain the Pierre RINO swamp

    1. Anonymous

      hahah! Cross Country runners can inflict pain and break the will of another runner by keeping up a pace or accelerating. The other runner gives up or falls back.

    2. Ike

      Whenever I think about qualifications for governing a state, one’s athletic prowess from 30 years ago is pretty low on the list.

  6. Anonymous

    Who are they polling?
    No doubt she is stronger in Kelo country but not west river.
    72% polled believe we need a convention of states to propose new constitutional amendments.
    That says a lot about the kind of people asked.

  7. Anonymous

    At least now we might get some polls. This governors race has been so quiet.

    Once this race heats up we will forget there is a congressional race. Krebs will win that. Two dudes guarantee it.

  8. Anonymous

    To me this race will come down to two things.

    Who defines themselves best and who defines their opponent best.

    For my money Kristi’s monopoly game video where she talks about our nations debt and bookers share of it is the deal breaker for me. The debt per person has only gone up since she went to congress and we still have Obamacare.

        1. KM

          11:27 – That’s his fault? Interesting. He encourages drug dealers to come to our state? Oh, oh, I know… he hands out permission slips so people robbing and killing others can continue. Got it. Great insight..

      1. Anonymous

        Her polling numbers keep going up and up too. Remember Jackley’s ridiculous state fair polling numbers that his campaign was so proud of?? The state fair poll had it Marty 57.9 and Kristi at 40.7. It appears that somehow Marty has dropped 22%.

  9. nonymous

    I’m curious if the margin of error increases due to lack of home phones. They are only polling people with a home phone – which is significantly less than ever before. So the average age of the people polled has to be higher – generally over 50 years. Polls for the last 10 years have been significantly skewed and wrong. You can’t poll like you did in 1960 to 2000 – there has to be a new method of polling developed.

  10. enquirer

    even PPP leaves clear statements about their methodology and results with links to detailed information. would have appreciated that in this case.

    1. Anonymous

      I doubt that she will win but it does show you that Johnson and Jackley’s hard push of grassroots show up to everything and work your butt off for 2 years does not show results in th polling.

      Kristi hasn’t done hardly anything and Jackley has been everywhere.

      The GOTV is overrated. Parades, fairs. It’s all pointless. TV is where people vote.

  11. anono

    well I see the campaign staffers from both sides are out already. I’ve said it before — both candidates are excellent. I like them both personally and there was a time I envisioned them running together. Obviously circumstances change. Now that they are running against each other the biases come out along with the knives. They will both run great campaigns and beautiful ads. And in just over three months, I believe we’ll see a very close finish to this race. Meanwhile, the polls will ebb & flow — that’s how these things work.

  12. Troy Jones

    Something is off.

    “The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus of 6 percent and polled 300 likely Republican voters.”

    That is too big an MOE for a poll of 300 likely voters. I give this poll zero cridibility without seeing at least methodology information.

  13. Anono

    Troy, I didn’t think 6% off was all that off for a 300 sample. Most polls are 400 with a smaller MOE. But it was probably done inexpensively ~ driven by the client. Moore has been around a long time though.

    1. Michael Wyland

      Yes, and note the pesky issue of the confidence level. Margin of error doesn’t mean anything without knowing the confidence level, but no one reports the confidence interval. For example, moving the confidence interval down from 95% to 90% can seriously affect the reliability of polling results.

      For these polls, it’s easily assumed that the Moore Information poll is more accurate than the SD State Fair poll or any other survey where no conscious effort to validate and balance the polling sample to reflect the electorate at large (think audience response polling like that done on Facebook or web sites.)

      Even so, the Moore Information’s devil is in the details of the methodology used, especially as it relates to basic demographics and how likelihood of voting is determined.

  14. Troy Jones

    Anono, you are correct. It seemed large and jumped off the page at me. I should have done a quick search before talking.

    Michael is right confidence level is also a factor but I think he overstates it by missing probably a larger factor is knowing the quality of the poll questions and methodology for confirming they were actually Republican voters.

    In the end, it is in a range I expected with one exception: it appears there may be a smaller % of undecideds than I expected. But again, it goes back to the poll on whether they pushed undecideds to decide.

    It is fun to speculate polls against what we see or don’t see on the ground colored by our bias. But in open primaries with two big horses, it is still really early.


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