Prior to the SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare, Obama was narrowly reading an average of the polls. Now he is behind if you factor in that between 60-70% of undecideds break for the challenger.
____________Obama Romney Undecided
Prior 46.2% 45.6% 8.2%
Since Ruling 45.2% 45.0% 9.8%
If one were to allocate only 60% of the undecided to Romney (they usually break about 67% to the challenger), prior to the ruling Romney would have won 50.5%-49.5%. Now it is 50.9%- 49.1% in Romney’s advantage.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t predict the election as it is still unbelievably close, much can happen in the intervening months, the undecideds can go one direction or another reducing the “allocation” to the challenger. All I am saying in a race where 45% have pretty much hardened on each side as there has been little (if any) change since March is that a 1% net swing may indicate problems are brewing.
And, here is my prediction:
If Obama gets to above 47.3% among likely voters (or challenger Romney is below 45.5%) as we come up on the election, Obama wins. Otherwise, it will be President Romney.