How is it looking for the State Senate? Pre-Conventional Wisdom edition.

Now that we’re through the primary, and heading into the State Convention, I thought it would be a useful exercise to weed through some of the various State Senate races, and try to identify which ones could be problematic for the SDGOP….

And actually, at least as of today in the State Senate, I think it’s looking pretty good for the party of Abraham Lincoln as of June 16th:

D

Rep

Dem

Other

Power Rating

Notes

1

 

Frerichs

 

Dem Over

 

2

Greenfield

 

 

GOP Over

 

3

Novstrup

Heidelberger

 

Strong GOP

Longtime elected official
v. Carpetbagger. See Corinna Robinson.

4

Wiik

Tyler

 

Lean GOP/Toss Up

Toss Up District w/2 who have faced election before. Tyler Comes with a lot of
electoral baggage.

5

Tapio

Johnson

 

Strong GOP

Tapio’s race to lose.

6

Otten

Boese

 

Strong GOP

Incumbent v. unknwn

7

Tidemann

Perpich

 

Strong GOP

Long-time Incumbent v. unknwn

8

Youngberg

Parsley

 

Lean Dem

Youngberg challenging
incumbent in tossup district, and is setting stage to run aggressively.
Could be interesting.

9

Peters

Boltjes

 

Strong GOP

Peters v placeholder.

10

Haggar

Powers

 

Strong GOP

Incumbent v. unknwn

11

Stalzer

Cool

 

Strong GOP

Has Cool ever won a race, despite multiple attempts? Stalzer has.

12

Curd

Sanden

 

Strong/Lean GOP

Curd is incumbent, but Sanden will likely take some shots at him. As long as Curd runs, he should be safe.

13

Kolbeck

Pierson

 

Lean GOP

Denny Pierson has prior experience, but grasping at straws anymore. Kolbeck has a good team behind him.

14

Soholt

 

Swanger

Strong GOP

Tyler who? Swanger running as conservative indy in district w/out any GOP backing against Republican. Why bother?

15

 

Nesiba

 

Dem Over

 

16

Bolin

Skiles

 

Strong GOP

Bolin is a campaign
machine. It’s over.

17

Rusch

Merrill

 

Lean GOP

Rusch is well respected, and the incumbent. Merrill has yet to make
his case why to replace him.

18

 

Kennedy

Stone

Lean Dem/Toss Up

Stone ran good campaign 2 years ago, and no incumbent this time.

19

Nelson

Graef

 

Strong GOP

Graef was just arrested for DUI in one of most GOP districts in
State. Unless Graef replaced on ballot, Nelson will win.

20

Klumb

Berg

 

Lean GOP

Klumb is from right area in District, but Berg is not inexperienced.
Today, we call it for Klumb.

21

 

Sutton

 

Dem Over

 

22

White

Groth

 

Lean GOP

The power of incumbency should hand this to White.

23

Cronin

 

 

GOP Over

 

24

Monroe

 

 

GOP Over

 

25

Langer

Barth

 

Toss Up

Both candidates have visibility in district that has elected Democrats in the last decade. Langer is excellent candidate, but Barth isn’t inexperienced.

26

 

Heinert

 

Dem Over

 

27

 

Killer

 

Dem Over

 

28

Maher

 

 

GOP Over

 

29

Cammack

 

Kindler

Strong GOP

I can’t even tell you
Kindler’s name. We can call this one over.

30

Russell

LaRive

 

Strong GOP

LaRive must have escaped the last Democrat Bounty Hunt in Fall River
County. It’s over.

31

Ewing

 

 

GOP Over

 

32

Solano

 

 

GOP Over

 

33

Jensen

Stuck

 

Strong GOP

He survived being called a draft dodger in a conservative GOP Primary. Unless Jensen says something
ill-advised (again), this race is his after winning the primary.

34

Partridge

 

 

GOP Over

 

35

Haverly

 

 

GOP Over

 

In case you’re wondering about my methodology, incumbency, party registration, and name ID all hold significant weight.  I also look at how good a campaigner the candidates are. Sioux Falls, being a little more urban than the rest of SD, tends to put things a little more up in the air. (Nothing personal, guys), so I’m more apt to say it leans GOP than it being strong GOP.

By my reckoning, Wiik/Tyler is going to be a hard fought race. But then again, John Wiik has never claimed Jesus is Pro-choice, and took a “revenge vote” against SDSU as Tyler has claimed she did.

Kennedy/Stone in Yankton should also be good. If Bernie had told people he was not running, this would be strong GOP for Stone. Now, Stone has to work harder because it’s Indy, but I’m sure he’ll have a little help from his friends in the GOP.

Langer/Barth is also going to be a knock down, drag out.  Langer is an outstanding candidate, but Barth is not unknown as well.

After that, the tough races drop off quickly. Al Novstrup should be able to dispatch carpetbagger Cory Heidelberger easily. I think District 8 with Youngberg/Parsley could be a dark horse race for the GOP, as Jordan is already out working, and represents a fresh young face for the GOP in the District.

But, all of this can change on a dime, and with the winds, and November is a long way away.

Agree? Disagree? Discuss, and let me know what you think. By my readings, it looks to be a pretty strong GOP Year in the State Senate

14 thoughts on “How is it looking for the State Senate? Pre-Conventional Wisdom edition.

  1. Anonymous

    The senate appears to be on the verge of turning very conservative.

    Going to the store to start stocking up on popcorn, should make for some interesting events.

  2. SDGOPer

    Mostly agree.

    Langer-Barth will be knock down, drag out.

    I hope I’m wrong but I feel like you’re giving Youngberg a little too much credit. Seems to be mostly unknown against a well-known, well-liked incumbent in a fairly toss-up district. LIke I said, hope you’re right though.

    Have you give you a little crap though, PP. You may not know Kindler’s first name in 29 but you got Cammack’s last name wrong.

    1. Anonymous

      Very good list PP. I really enjoy your blog when you do things like this.

      Can you handicap the governors race now also with Michels, Jackley and Mickelson?

    2. Pat Powers Post author

      That’s what I get for staring at a spreadsheet of candidates too long!

      As I noted, this is what I see the lay of the land is as of today.

      Jordan Youngberg is doing the things that all new candidates need to do, and he’s doing them just fine. I still have it as leaning Dem, but he’s a GOP candidate with promise in a GOP state.

    3. Anonymous

      Agreed on the Parsley-Youngberg. Even the mainstream Republicans in the district have no clue who Youngberg is. And Parsley is well liked among Rs and Ds, so you can put that one in the Strong Dem category. The kid doesn’t have much of a shot.

  3. Wazzzuupp

    While I don’t agree with all the analysis (or your politics), this is a good piece summarizing all of the candidates, their districts, the parties and their general chances. Nicely done.

  4. Anonymous

    All of these victories will be for the last time if the sd gop stays silent on the initiated measures and constitutional amendments on the ballot in 2016.

    There will no longer be a republican party and we will be electing democrats without knowing it.

    The SD Gop should be pushing a no on everything campaign. Obviously this will have to be the job of the county party leaders in the central committee because they are not getting leadership from the top to protect republican majorities.

    There won’t be an SD GOP if these measures pass.

    1. Kelly Lieberg

      Exactly ! An Achilles Heal, of sorts… All I ask is that the raise the threshold to match the current municipal level. That should help to keep things real. A unified message with a strong messenger and we should be able to preserve South Dakota for generations to come. And do it NOW ! Every day lost increases the future slope.

  5. Anonymous

    So if the leans go as indicated…it will be 27-7 with one pure toss in 25.

    I agree with the earlier comments… Vote NO on Amendment V

  6. anon

    Wiik versus Tyler in 4 should be fun to watch. Radical right it’s-only-my-way-or-hit-the-highway mechanical thinking Wiik versus radical left, CAFO-hater-everything-goes-Bernie-supporter-no-brain Tyler will be one of the best races in SD.

    (sorry for the edit, but that’s a little farther than I’ll allow… -PP)

  7. Anonymous

    Pat, I think you should use red to highlight the Dems as the Dem party more closely aligns with Commies-the “Reds”. I know that nationally the Dems somehow got to be blue, but in the interest of being correct, I refer to the Democrat states as Red/Socialist states.

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