Predictions?

I’m still in and out a bit, but I did want to get a post up about today’s elections.

Time for the big question. Who is going to win? And who is not?

What are your thoughts?

49 Replies to “Predictions?”

  1. a friend of education

    Agree that SD has not been “more at risk” in decades.

    US House: Dems +39

    US Senate: GOP +1

    I’ll be watching Gubernatorial races closely. 38 contested. 19 wins for each side? Maybe 20-18. Difficult to see. Always in motion the future is.

    Locally, S.D. Republicans sweep statewide races, but margins will be tight.

    SDGOP controls SD House and Senate.

    I think Bjorkman threw in the towel. Dusty exceeds 62%

    Reply
    1. Anonymous

      Barnett squeaks it out against his opponent 50.1%-49.9%.

      I expect this to be the closest of the night based on conversations I’ve had with Democrats and aliens.

      Reply
  2. Anonymous

    Billie-close
    Dusty-landslide
    Randy-close
    Republicans in all other Statewide races.
    Senate R’s 27-D’s 8
    House R’s 60- D’s 10

    Reply
    1. Anonymous

      Barnett wins a closer than usual race for him 78%-22%.

      Denying Frederick the opportunity to be Secretary of the Legislature.

      Reply
      1. a friend of education

        My sense is that both Kristi and Jason prevail, but it may indeed be close, just as you say. Dems seem energized.

        Reply
    1. Anonymous

      Seiler? I think not. He is an old lefty who doesn’t have a moral base. He is anti-everything that makes South Dakota a great state, and he is pro-everything that supports government control.

      Vote for the people, not for DC-Vote Ravnsborg!

      Reply
        1. Anonymous

          What do you mean, out of touch? He is in touch with Pelosi, Schumer, Ricky Weiland, Dicky Durbin, Gerald Nadler, Lizzie Warren, Ocasio-Cortez, and the rest of that bad lot.

          Reply
  3. William Beal

    Blue Trickle
    Noem 54% – Sutton 45% – Evans 1%
    Johnson 61% – Bjorkman 37% – Hendrickson 1%
    South Dakota GOP holds all Constitutional Offices
    SD GOP controls SD House and Senate.
    US Senate GOP +4 for 55 seat majority
    US House GOP retains with majority with 5 seats, or less

    Reply
    1. Anonymous

      I think you’re right on everything except the house. Unfortunately I think the GOP loses the house but not by the margin Dems are expecting.

      Reply
      1. anono

        Yes, not far off on state races probably. But on Senate and US House races, I suspect Mr. Beal is off. Mid-term elections are generally not good for the incumbent President. R’s hold the Senate barely, but lose the House handily I suspect.

        Reply
    2. a friend of education

      I’d be pleased if you were correct, Mr. Beal. If the GOP retained the US House, I’d be tempted to toss my hat high and dance an Irish jig. But even if that outcome came to pass, my elation would be tempered by my expectation of nation-wide antifa violence. The extreme left will not tolerate another disappointment. A massive twitter tantrum would spread to the streets. Innocent Americans would be hurt & likely some killed — even women and children. Because the left believes itself morally unimpeachable & politically ascendant, it ascribes any electoral loss to a network of underhanded conspirators — scoundrels against whom no act of resistance, including mob violence, is forbidden. Indeed, many leftists imagine themselves heroic for vandalizing small businesses & threatening, defaming, & physically assaulting police, military servicemen, ICE agents, and other patriots. If the ‘progressives’ lose again, they’ll burn more than just flags.

      Reply
    3. Kevin W. Nelson

      I’ll go with William Beal. When that happens, I’ll switch to CNN to hear the whining and self-justification.

      Reply
  4. Anonymous

    Yeah, Trump has a war on America. Who is it that wants to turn over more power to the international community? It is Democrats. Who is it that wants to burn America to the ground so they can rebuild a socialist Utopia? The Democrats. Who is it that went around the world apologizing for America? A Democrat.

    You really need to get more of an argument because you come off sounding like an idiot.

    Reply
  5. Anonymous

    Hopefully the only race that is close is Sutton v Noem. Sutton will either win by 1 or 2 or lose by 3 to 8.

    I haven’t heard anything about the other races besides congress.

    With Johnson up 23 in the Argus poll it tells me the other GOP races should be solid. But it will depend on the SD GOP. I’m not sure what they have done this cycle. In previous years gov candidates have given others money. This year it looks like she needs every penny.

    If Sutton has coattails it could lift Dem legislative candidates. If Sutton and Seiler are both performing above expectations it could keep trickling down.

    The big question will be does Sutton have coattails. If so many races will be closer than usual.

    If no coattails it’s a referendum on Kristi personally and the way liberals have portrayed her to voters.

    Does Sutton perform better or worse than he has been polling? I saw he is at 47 in the RCJ poll yesterday. Kristi was at 48.

    I’m assuming internals show the same or Pence, Graham, Gardner would have had better places to be than a state with 100k more Republicans registered to vote.

    In the end let’s hope the GOP hangs on to everything.

    Reply
  6. Anonymous

    Kristi opens up a victory with 58%-41%-1%.

    Dusty 59%-41%

    No statewide GOP polls lower than 55%

    Ravnsborg is the top vote getter with 63%.

    Reply
  7. Brian Liss

    I don’t think Seiler wins because he was Obama’s man in SD. Nationally, we will see if “blexit” is a real thing. A switched vote from a reliably Democratic voting group is enormously powerful. If Republicans can retain control of the US House, this election will be know in part as the blexit election. This goes under the radar as most people won’t change their party affiliation until the next time they move. BTW, the hideous liar and malcontent, Cory Heidelberger loses big time.

    Reply
    1. Anonymous

      Rats, I thought Heidelberger would win. Then we could see some real guvernin’! Like in the good ole’ days of Lenin and Mao.

      Reply
  8. Troy Jones

    This morning I was at my regular Tuesday morning breakfast and in the middle of the discussion a wise man says, “At the end of the day, we will still live in the greatest nation in the world where we select our government by voting for who we want.”

    My predictions:

    Because of the Independent/protest vote, neither Governor candidate gets 50%.

    Dusty exceeds 60% and maybe 65%.

    Jason wins 55%-45%.

    Kristie Fiegan or Dusty are the biggest vote getters.

    GOP sweeps the Constitutional offices with all getting above 55%

    GOP barely retains 2/3rds in both Houses of the Legislature with the most “surprises” (losses or close races) in the Sioux Falls area.

    GOP picks up 3+ in the US Senate and loses control of US House* 221-214.

    *Loss of the House is because of the Freedom Caucus. The defeated partial repeal of Obamacare “because it didn’t go far enough” so we are left with the full Obamacare (traitors come in many different colors). The electoral effect is 40 Republican House members in swing districts voted for partial repeal which had protection for pre-existing conditions. However, the Democrats have spent literally 100’s of millions of dollars saying these Republicans wanted to gut pre-existing conditions.

    The Freedom Caucus has singlehandedly given back control of the US House to the Democrats and given rise to the biggest threat to the re-election of President Trump and advancing the conservative cause.

    Reply
    1. Troy Jones

      P.S. I think the single subject Constitutional Amendment is most likely to pass. The rest will be close or be defeated.

      Reply
      1. a friend of education

        Agree that Fiegan may receive more votes than any other constitutional candidate. Kristie deserves to win & I have great faith that she will.

        Reply
          1. a friend of education

            I apologize. I did not mean to denigrate the electoral process. Mrs. Fiegen is a superb lady and a well-respected commissioner. She’s run a clean, positive campaign. She’s worked her fingers to the bone. She earned my vote. I’ll be disappointed if she loses, and many neighbors feel the same, but I stipulate & acknowledge that whomever the people elect should serve on the PUC, deserving or not.

            Reply
    2. anono

      most accurate predictions yet, in my opinion. No Gov candidate gets to 50 is a good bet I suspect. I’ll say Steve Barnett is the highest vote getter of the bunch. Dusty will be strong. AG race is closer than expected.

      Reply
    3. Anonymous

      I thought McCain’s ‘no’ vote cost us the repeal of ObamaCare. He turned left when he got older and cost us that victory.

      Reply
      1. Troy Jones

        That was later and post honeymoon period. The real defeat was the one done by the liberal enabling Freedom Caucus.

        Reply
        1. Anonymous

          You’re one of the most intellectually dishonest politicos I’ve ever come across Troy. More than anyone, you remind me of Hugh Hewitt. (I have no doubt you’ll choose to take the comparison as a compliment.)

          Reply
          1. Troy Jones

            And actually, such a characterization from someone as stupid, ignorant and deceptive as you, is the compliment.

            Reply
  9. WD

    Noem-52.5% / Sutton-45% / Evans-2.5%

    Johnson-63% / Bjorkman-36%

    Ravnsborg 55% / Seiler-45%

    Rest of the GOP wins.

    Z passes
    X fails
    W barely fails
    25 fails
    24 fails

    Reply
  10. Brian

    Noem wins 53 Sutton 46 Evans 1

    Dems break 40% barrier but then hit the wall…no chance…too many registered Republicans

    Johnson 64 Bjorkman 33 Hendrickson 2 Wiezoreck 1
    Dusty is tireless and likeable

    Ravnsborg 64 Seiler 36; law enforcement is with Jason and Seiler’s comments about decriminalizing meth are way outside of SD mainstream.

    All other Constitutional offices go to GOP easily.

    US Senate GOP +3
    House Dems take control but with a small majority +26 (need 23) watch out for deaths and special elections…could house flip during the time…could be interesting

    X and Z and 24 pass (I don’t want 24 to pass but predict it will)

    W narrowly loses (thankfully!)

    25 loses in a landslide 36 to 64

    Reply
  11. Troy Jones

    CNN election coverage ends up being in last. I learn more listening to thoughts contrary to mine on election night. The inaneness of CNN has me fixed on MSNBC.

    Reply
  12. JKC

    I just ran into the Rhodens. They look worried…. Constantly on the phone…. Their car has broken down…. He should have never given up the horse…. 😉

    Reply
  13. Anonymous

    GOP sweeps in South Dakota office races with Noem being closest (maybe 53%). Johnson crushes Bjorkman and Ravnsborg dominates as well.

    DC: Dems take house, GOP adds 1 seat in the Senate.

    Reply
  14. John

    Noem wins, but Johnson and Ravnsborg dominate.

    All other const officers win easily.

    I will say all the ballot measures fail

    Reply

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