Mitchell Daily Republic is reporting on a poll based on a hypothetical rematch between Congresswoman Noem and former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin that was done by Nielson Brothers, and it has some head-scratching results.
The Nielson Brothers Polling Labor Day Survey claims Herseth Sandlin would defeat Noem 58-37 percent, with 5 percent undecided, if they met again.
Now you remember in 2010, Noem defeated Herseth Sandlin 48-46% with B. Thomas Marking getting the remainder of the votes.
The current poll does show Noem with a 55% approval rating and that she would handily win reelection against an unnamed Democrat with nearly 60%.
Now here is why I’m more than skeptical of the poll and why you should be as well.
Nielsen Brothers Polling is a relatively new firm that only started conducting polls in the 2010 election cycle.
In fact, they were putting out polls that showed Scott Heidepriem in a dead heat with Dennis Daugaard.
In the contest for Governor, Lt. Governor Dennis Dauggard edges out State Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepriem 43 to 40 percent with 17 undecided.
At the same time during the election, Rasmussen had Daugaard up nearly 20 points. And Daugaard went on to win the general a short time later with over 60% of the vote.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that a rematch between Herseth Sandlin and Noem would be very competitive, but when polling shows that a rematch would be a blowout one way or the other, I tend to question the results.
The TOP FIVE reasons not to belive this poll:
The reasons Nielson Brothers poll showing Herseth Sandlin over Noem in a head to head should be seriously questioned as biased propaganda:
#1 – they won’t release the methodology the poll was conducted under.
#2 – they won’t release the poll crosstabulations.
#3 – they won’t release who paid for it.
#4 – one of the Nielsen bros, Paul Nielson, is a dem who ran in 2008 against Tom Dempster for the district 9 senate seat. (Nielson lost that November election 52-47).
#5 – I’ve been told BJ Nesselhuf has had this poll for a week, and has been shopping it to news outlets.
Smart news outlets have been refusing to run it, recognizing it as a ploy to get Herseth into the race over the two candidates who are actively looking at running.
I originally posted this last night (09/20/11), but pulled this post because the numbers reported in the Mitchell Daily Republic appeared to be as inaccurate as Nielson Brothers polling from the 2010 gubernatorial race. The results reported appeared to be so wildy off that I thought there must be a typo.