South Dakota Polling: Rounds holds largest lead, Rick Weiland Loses to nearly everyone

Rick Weiland is not Harry Reid’s guy. And according to the latest poll, it sounds like he isn’t anyone else’s either. From politico’s morning score:

FIRST LOOK: SOUTH DAKOTA SENATE POLL: Republican Mike Rounds holds the largest lead over Democrat Rick Weiland in a new survey by GOP firm Harper Polling, 52 percent to 38 percent. As for other Republicans vying for the open seat, Larry Rhoden leads Weiland 41-35, Stace Nelson leads Weiland 40-38 and Annette Bosworth trails Weiland 36-38. On a generic ballot, the Republican candidate leads the Democrat 46-36.

– “However, the generic ballot improves markedly for Democrats in the dominant media market of Sioux Falls (41% Democrat, 40% Republican) and among women (42% Democrat, 40% Republican),” pollster Brock McCleary writes. “Rounds outperforms the Republican generic ballot by 7% as a result of winning the Sioux Falls media market (50%-41%), women (44%-43%) and independents (45%-28%).’

– On Syria, 88 percent of South Dakotans expressed some awareness of the situation (“have you seen, read or heard anything recently”). On Obama’s strike proposal, 52 percent said they oppose it and 26 percent said they support it. The president’s job approval-disapproval stands at 39-54. The poll was conducted Sept. 4-5 among 517 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.31 percent.,

Read it all here.

As you can see from polling, Rounds leads definitively, Rhoden leads just outside the margin of error, and Nelson & Bosworth are neck in neck with Weiland.

39 Replies to “South Dakota Polling: Rounds holds largest lead, Rick Weiland Loses to nearly everyone”

  1. wazzzupp

    These numbers actually seem like pretty good news for Weiland. Your post on the Neilsen Brothers blog a couple months ago showed Weiland at just 26% vs. Rounds and now he is at 38%. And, given Neilsen’s inherent bias towards Dem candidates and the fact that is a GOP polling group, it looks like Weiland’s sort of insane ground game of traveling the state and holding public meetings is beginning to pay off.

    Looks like the key will be that GOP primary and how that develops. Sounds like Nelson is working as hard as Weiland, which is to say substantially more retail traveling and public meetings than Governor Rounds. Hopefully, Mitch, Rob and the team have this all figured out. I heard Rounds TV is going up soon.

    1. Drew Dennert

      If Rounds starts TV this early you know he’s hiding from something! This is way to early for TV adds for an open seat.

      1. Anonymous

        Don’t get your hopes up Drew.

        As of today there isn’t a race for US Senate. There is a guy who will win and three others who are not proving to be viable.

          1. Garth Algar

            Did you actually just say Nelson, Rhoden and Bosworth are running better campaigns than Rounds?

            Didn’t Rounds’ plan get Johnson to drop out? Stephanie to decline? Kristi to decline? Brendan Johnson to decline?

            Isn’t he raising more money than anyone else in SD right now by huge margins?

            In 4-6 months we will see if Rounds is running the better campaign. Rhoden, Nelson and Bosworth are running legislative campaigns right now – Rounds is running for the US Senate.

            1. Anonymous

              I didn’t say anything about Bosworth. I said Stace, Rhoden, & Weiland. And I also said for the $$ they had they were running better campaigns

              1. Bat $#!+ Crazy

                So they have no money and are running a good campaign? What do they have? Two nickels to rub together?

                Who cares. They are running stupid campaigns because they are focused on the wrong things.

  2. Fred

    This poll shows that Stace Nelson can already beat the likely Democrat even after only a short time in the race. Rounds and Rhoden may have better name ID initially, but they are also vulnerable when you look at their records in office. Conservatives don’t have to settle. They can choose Stace. He can and will go All…The…Way! Go Stace!

    1. Garth Algar

      This poll shows that Stace eaks out a win against Rick Weiland. It doesn’t show how he would do against Brendan Johnson or Stephanie. HINT – He’d get his doors blown off.

      They have until March to see how this race goes in the primary for the GOP.

    2. Dairy Dude

      Stace isn’t even the most likely to win against Rounds. This polling would indicate Rhoden is. For some reason Nelson thinks he is the front runner of the three going after Rounds. He may want to check his giant ego at the door and understand this isnt a Rounds vs Nelson race there are two other good candidates as well. Stace has already limited his votes by aligning directly with the Tea Party and polarizing figures such as Gordon Howie.

      1. Garth Algar

        Rhoden is still the guy to beat if you are Nelson. Why doesn’t Nelson debate Rhoden? Oh yeah because he isn’t in Rhoden’s league and can’t get a debate…

  3. Anon

    a generic republican performs better than Nelson, Bosworth, and Rhoden against Weiland. What does that say about those candidates?

    1. Anonymous

      This poll was taken with Nelson barely two weeks as a declared candidate, and he is already statistically tied with Rhoden beating the Democrat candidate.

      Regardless of the efforts to “poo poo” the results, and diminish Nelson’s polling results, this resoundedly disproves Rounds’ claims that he is the only candidate that can beat the Democrats.

        1. Cui Bono

          Really? What results were you looking at? Nelson Beats Weiland and Bosworth. For being in the race the shortest amount of time I would say he is looking just fine for now.

  4. Drew Dennert

    Early polls are nice to see because they usually give people an idea on which way the race is likely to go, although they are usually not very accurate. The first poll on the South Dakota, Obama Romney race last year only had Romney leading by 6% and he ended up winning by around 18%. Not to mention very few people know any of the candidates besides Rounds.

      1. Anonymous

        Bull shit! I’m pretty sure you meant to say Marion Rounds. Rounds record will come back to haunt him in the primary.

        1. Walter

          Actually it’s not bs. Look at Stace Nelson’s twitter account and his Rhino Mike account he is all about attention for himself. We had a guy at work look at Stace’s twitter account because he had never heard of him and has no dog in the hunt. First thing he said is that Stace talks way to crap and way to much about how wonderful he is. For the record he preferred Rhoden over all other candidates. Stace cares about Stace. He’s stuck on himself, you can say what you want but his actions speak to that being accurate. Stace is the least professional and least likely to gain the trust of the people in South Dakota once people get to know the real him.

        1. Anonymous

          Funny how all the moderate Republican comments are attacking Stace. Because he is the only real Conservative in the race and because he is a real threat to all the Rounds staffers job security.

          1. Garth Algar

            This conservative is mocking Stace because it’s fun. The guys ego is soooooo big it needs to be deflated a little….

            1. Walter

              We attack Stace because he is all about himself, he retweets himself and how he is the best of the best type crap all the time. Something you would expect on a 5th grade play ground not a US Senate Race. With each passing day Stace will lose support, it will be between him and Bosworth for the bottom spot.

      2. MC

        Stace’s main strength is he connects with the voters, on their level. It is also his downfall. He doesn’t play well with other politicians.

        1. Anne Beal

          you got that right. Nelson doesn’t work well with others. Nobody should make the assumption that if Nelson is nominated, the party will enthusiastically support him. More likely there will be mass defections.

          1. Anonymous

            Anne if Stace gets the nomination the only Republicans who won’t support him are the people who probably don’t belong in the Republican Party.

        2. Anonymous

          Stace doesn’t play well with his own dog when his dog is not blindly following him.

          If you aren’t a sheep bowing down to the messiah (little m) he is not going to get along with you.

  5. Anonymous

    Yes! Because that is just what the USA needs is more politicians that get along with other politicians to create records like this

    Rounds/Rhoden got along great together as tax & spenders, in 2011 SD had a budget crisis of a $127 Million deficit, the USA is $18 trillion in debt, because politicians like Rhoden/Rounds got along so well in DC in raising taxes & spending money America does not have. Let’s send them to DC so they can go along and add to that mess.

    This report of all tax & fee increase bills shows that you are correct, Rep Nelson did not get along with the others on a core Republican issue. Wasn’t there other reports that indicated the same thing?

    1. Garth Algar

      Zzzzz…. same old lies… no one believes them.

      How about the fact that Stace doesn’t respect other people who disagree with him? How about the fact that he acts like a child when he doesn’t get his way? How about the fact that Stace sees himself as a victim?

      SD needs real leadership in DC not more spoiled children to go along with McCain and Ted Cruz.

      1. Anonymous

        How are their actual complete voting records on all the tax & fee increases, lies?

        If Nelson did not oppose the tax & spend moderates in Pierre, providing a stark contrast between an actual conservative and moderates, no one would even know his name. All the bile? It’s all about Nelson opposing arrogant politicians who don’t want their records disclosed to the public.

        1. Anonymous

          “Somebody” keeps thinking they want to hide their voting records and even spend money to hide them. I don’t believe that is the case whatsoever but it keeps getting stated they want to hide it. I think “somebody” WISHES they wanted to hide it…

  6. Charlie Hoffman

    Almost all of the people who gain the most public trust and admiration ultimately yielding votes politically have a funny self depreciating wit about them self which they use with perfect timing in uncomfortable situations.

    Humor is what always get the girl.

    That said I’m just damn glad I’m 6’2″ and 225 and it’s gonna be really hard for anyone to eat me alive! (:


    Which, given Weiland’s low name i.d., is quite good, especially considering that Rounds faces a very contentious primary that will force him to spend his warchest down to zero, and likely will politically wound him in the process–especially if conservative PACs come in to oppose him, like the Senate Conservatives Fund, The Club for Growth, and the Tea Party Express…