“There are no secrets that time does not reveal.” (Jean Racine)

As of Friday, almost 40 million Americans have already voted and there will be roughly 80 million votes cast tomorrow. In other words, the election will very soon be over except for counting the ballots.  Within 48 hours, this thread will become moot.

According to realclearpolitics.com, average of all polls, Hillary leads Trump by roughly 3% with roughly 7% who are undecided.  This translates into a Hillary Clinton lead in the Electoral College Votes 301 to 237. 270 Electoral Votes needed to win. 269 Electoral Votes is a tie.

In other words, for Trump to win, he has to win states which total 33 electoral votes currently in the Clinton column (actually 32 as it would be likely the House would elect Trump if there is a tie).

Going into the election right now, Clinton has in the bank 203 Electoral Votes vs. 164 for Trump (“in the bank” is shorthand for leading in the polls by more than 5%).

The following is my cheat sheet. If a “Likely Winner” loses a state I’ve allocated to them, they must pick it up somewhere else.

  • If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, Virginia or Michigan, she must win Florida. If she loses two of these three, call the election for Trump.
  • If Trump loses Ohio or Georgia, he would have to win Virginia and New Mexico or Virginia and Colorado.   As winning Virginia is unlikely with Senator Kaine on the ticket, a loss in Ohio or Georgia calls the race for Clinton.
  • If Clinton wins North Carolina and New Hampshire, Florida likely won’t matter.
  • If Florida matters, we will have another infamous Florida re-count.
State Polls Close (CST) Electoral Votes Likely Winner Electoral College Votes Comments
Maine CD #2 5:00 p.m. 1 DJT 203-165 DJT losing here could foreshadow NH
Maine Statewide 5:00 p.m. 2 HRC 205-165 HRC losing here could foreshadow NH
Virginia 6:00 p.m. 13 HRC 218-165 Sen. Kaine on ticket makes this likely HRC
Georgia 6:00 p.m. 16 DJT 218-181 DJT losing here foreshadows NC
Ohio 6:30 p.m. 18 DJT 218-199 Trump been holding lead for weeks
North Carolina 6:30 p.m. 15 Virtually tied
Florida 7:00 p.m. 29 Virtually tied
New Hampshire 7:00 p.m. 4 Virtually tied
Pennsylvania 7:00 p.m. 20 HRC 238-199 If Trump wins, he will win the election
Michigan 7:00 p.m. 16 HRC 254-199 If Trump wins, he will win the election
Iowa 7:30 p.m. 6 DJT 254-205 Trump been holding lead for weeks
Colorado 8:00 p.m. 9 HRC 263-205 Trump needs Independent candidates to do well
New Mexico 8:00 p.m. 5 HRC 268-205 Unpredictable with NM former Gov. on ballot
Arizona 8:00 p.m. 11 DJT 268-216 Trump loss foreshadows Nevada and NM
Nevada 9:00 p.m. 6 268-216 Virtually tied

There are some very interesting linkages because of similarities of the respective states.

  • If Trump loses Maine CD#2, it becomes likely he will lose New Hampshire. Similarly, if Clinton loses Maine Statewide, it becomes likely she will lose New Hampshire. Either one could be enough to tip the scales one way or another so the election could be “over” before our polls close barring an upset in New Mexico.
  • If Clinton loses Virginia, she will lose North Carolina. Similarly, if Trump loses Georgia, he will lose North Carolina.
  • If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, she could very possibly lose Michigan and Wisconsin where it would be a run-away.
  • If Trump wins New Mexico, he will likely win Nevada and a New Mexico win would negate a loss of Maine CD#2 and New Hampshire.

As you can see, Trump has to hold ALL STATES he leads by 3% or more and run the table on the states that are virtually tied (Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada). If he runs the table but loses just Maine CD#1, we have a tied Electoral College and the House will select the next President of the United States.

The good news is Trump doesn’t have to win a state he is currently behind by more than 3% to win the election. The bad news is he has to win all the four closest states (FL, NC, NH, & NV).  In short, odds of Trump winning are the same as flipping a coin twice and both landing on heads.

The American body politic is deeply divided with roughly 45% on the liberal side and 45% on the conservative side.  There is about 5% which lean each way.  It is my opinion that this election will be decided by the very middle 5% of the American body politic.  These people usually confound the pollsters as they move generally in block on Election Day which explains Obama beating polls in 2008 and 2012 and Bush in 2004 or Reagan in 1980.

My gut:  Watch Maine CD#2 & Maine Statewide. If both go one way, I think it will foreshadow the winner.  That said, all of America is watching to see what happens in Florida.  Been there and done that for the last four elections.  Might as well keep it up.

P.S.  Sorry about the format.  Did the best I could in the time I had.  Not the graphics wiz Pat is.

14 Replies to ““There are no secrets that time does not reveal.” (Jean Racine)”

  1. Spencer

    Yes, I would agree with the ME-2 analysis concerning New Hampshire. The polling in New Hampshire has been crazy. I would not bet anything on that state’s outcome, but ME-2 may be a clue to how it might vote. Looking at the early vote and polling, it is likely Trump will carry ME-2 and make ME close. If he is leading in ME, he will outperform his polls in states with working class whites. I am feeling pretty good about North Carolina right now. The souls to the polls was a flop this year. The Democrats are 140,000+ votes behind 2012’s clip. IF Trump gets the same turnout on Election Day, he will win NC by 4.7%. Basically, Democrats need to find 250,000 more votes on Election Day to eek out a victory assuming a similar GOP turnout from 2012. GOP turnout will have to be seriously depressed for that to happen. Florida is looking better for Trump than Romney. Trump is running more than 130,000 votes ahead of Romney. Again, assuming a similar Election Day turnout, Trump wins Florida by 0.32% Am I confident in that prediction? Would you be? Iowa and Ohio are interesting. It shows the Rust Belt shift. The Democrats are finishing early voting with only half the advantage that Obama had in 2012 with polls very strong for Trump. Trump will likely do quite well ending in the mid to high single digits over Hillary. Ohio will follow suit with low to mid-single digits. Depending on how Ohio early results go, Michigan could be drug along with it. I disagree that Florida and Michigan correlate with each other. I could see a situation where Trump loses Florida but wins Michigan and still loses the electoral college. There have been enough demographic shifts in this race to allow that to happen. Pennsylvania may be a bridge too far, but the polling is very weak. Again, a strong performance by Trump in Ohio could spell good news in Pennsylvania. I am having some problems believing some of the polling out of Colorado. If as many Republicans are voting for Hillary like some of the polls say such as 15%, then, yes, she will win. The GOP finally pulled out to a lead there in the early vote. Momentum? The GOP has been expanding their lead in the early vote over the last two weeks in Arizona. Initially, it looked competitive, but not so much anymore. New Mexico really could surprise everyone. I hope Trump works in a surprise visit tomorrow there; it could be worth it. A lot has been written about the early vote in Nevada, but if you take the polling on Nevada and apply it to the early vote percentages, Trump ends up anywhere from winning the early vote by 5% to losing it by only 2% depending on how independents and partisans split. In the end, I think Trump will lose a couple of these states falling a few votes short of 270 but doing better than Romney, but I would not at all be surprised if he was able to get over 270. Hillary’s numbers are much weaker than Obama’s in 2012, and there are many more opportunities that were not available to Romney among the states.

  2. Troy Jones Post author

    Spencer,

    Good analysis and information. If you inferred a correlation with Michigan and Florida, I didn’t intend it. I think Michigan mirrors Pennsylvania where a strong PA win by Trump could result in a narrow Michigan win and maybe even Wisconsin which would require Hillary to win Florida to have a chance as we move west. What I intended was a PA/Michigan win negates a Florida loss and then some.

    What I didn’t originally say is either candidate could win roughly 330-208. In fact, I think it is so volatile it is as likely to be a blow-out one way as to be a nail-biter.

  3. Anonymous

    Trump’s most likely path to victory is Florida-North Carolina-New Hampshire-Colorado-Nevada. The chance of that happening is about 10% …

    For Trump to need Colorado, are you predicting he will lose in Iowa? If he wins Iowa, he won’t need Nevada and Colorado. Just one. Troy

  4. Anonymous

    1… Hold Romney States—everything easy there except NC that puts him at 206
    2. Iowa +6 (212)
    3. Ohio +18 (230)
    4. Florida +29 (+259)

    DRAW a line

    If he can get those states then we have a number of combinations….I think Iowa and OH are looking great FL and NC are dicier

    So then he needs 11 from the following somehow OR arguably 10 —he wins a 269 tie in the House

    5. ME-2 (+1)
    6. NH (+4)
    7. CO (+9)
    8. NV (+6)
    9. PA (+20)
    10. MI (+16)
    11. VA (+13)
    12. MN (+10)
    13. WI (+10)

    Play with the map at 270towin.com

    I totally agree with your path to get to 259. He loses any of those, he is in trouble. I think the path to 269 is NH (down 0.6%) and NV (up 1.5%) and 270 comes from Maine CD#2 (up 0.5%). Such a narrow path but definitely doable, esp. if he out performs poll demographic expectations. CO and PA/MI come if he really exceeds expectations. Best alternative path is PA and CO if he loses Florida (which I think is the most at risk in the path to 270) Troy

  5. Wazzzuupp

    This is laughably optimistic. This race won’t be very close at the end of the day, electorally. And, to add insult to injury, Trump’s “brand” — which really is his business — has been permanently disfigured. He’s done himself, his adopted party and the country a grave disservice the past 15 months. Good riddance.

    1. Troy Jones Post author

      Wazzup, as of right now, here are the closest states (within Margin of Error).

      Florida: Trump +0.2%
      Pennsylvania: Clinton up 1.9%
      New Hampshire: Clinton up 0.6%
      North Carolina: Trump up 1%
      Nevada: Trump up 1.5%
      Colorado: Clinton up 2.9%

      If you award all other states as they sit in the polls, the Electoral College is Clinton leading 239-216. Chatter is Trump is likely to win NH, NC and NV which puts the race with Trump leading 239-241.

      So now it comes down to Trump winning either Florida or PA and CO (not likely). If it coming down to a state that has vacillated back and forth between the two candidates more than any and sits at .2% differential isn’t close, I don’t know what close is.

      It is highly unlikely anyone will get a “mandate” because it is likely there will be 6-10 states within 3% encompassing roughly 25% of the Electoral votes.

    2. Anonymous

      Fiddling while Rome burns, socialist? I don’t understand the support of someone who was corrupt while within the public trust, such as Hilliary; also, her wholesale support of abortion including late-term and partial-birth, shows that she has no morals whatsoever.

      I hope you are crying in your latte tomorrow, Wazup. Who will you go crying to when the country is in shambles with a Hilliary presidency?

  6. Troy Jones Post author

    Election Day RealClearPolitics.com Electoral College No Toss Ups Map (allocates state based on average of recent polls):

    Hillary Clinton 272
    Donald Trump 266

    New Hampshire is in HRC’s count so flip that and . . . . it could be Trump-270 and Clinton 268. Razor thin on so many levels.

    If he doesn’t get NH, the next “easiest” based on the polls is Pennsylvania (-1.9%) and Colorado (-2.9%). Very narrow path.

    My current gut is if he carries PA or CO, he will pick up some other surprises.

  7. Adam Zobel

    I’m looking at MN, WI, and MI to be the tipping point states tonight. HRC fell flat in the primaries in these three states and the demographics in these states are more favorable to Trump than FL or NV. If the enthusiasm for Trump in the rural and suburban areas can exceed urban turnout, it’ll be a long night waiting for results.

    1. Anonymous

      It would be nice if Minnesotans pulled their heads out of their backsides; remember, this is the state that voted for Mondale, Jesse “the Moron” Ventura, and Al Franken, so there are a lot of dumb people there. Sorry, but the truth hurts.

      1. Anonymous

        Oh, and Jim Sanden, running for something or other in South Dakota, is a carpetbagger from Minnesota. He likes socialism-I heard it personally from his own mouth-and he is two-faced as well. Before moving to South Dakota, it was such a lousy place full of hicks, but when he retired on a government pension, he slunk across the border to take advantage of the our state’s lack of income tax. There shows his loyalty-to his own pocketbook.