As of Friday, almost 40 million Americans have already voted and there will be roughly 80 million votes cast tomorrow. In other words, the election will very soon be over except for counting the ballots. Within 48 hours, this thread will become moot.
According to realclearpolitics.com, average of all polls, Hillary leads Trump by roughly 3% with roughly 7% who are undecided. This translates into a Hillary Clinton lead in the Electoral College Votes 301 to 237. 270 Electoral Votes needed to win. 269 Electoral Votes is a tie.
In other words, for Trump to win, he has to win states which total 33 electoral votes currently in the Clinton column (actually 32 as it would be likely the House would elect Trump if there is a tie).
Going into the election right now, Clinton has in the bank 203 Electoral Votes vs. 164 for Trump (“in the bank” is shorthand for leading in the polls by more than 5%).
The following is my cheat sheet. If a “Likely Winner” loses a state I’ve allocated to them, they must pick it up somewhere else.
- If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, Virginia or Michigan, she must win Florida. If she loses two of these three, call the election for Trump.
- If Trump loses Ohio or Georgia, he would have to win Virginia and New Mexico or Virginia and Colorado. As winning Virginia is unlikely with Senator Kaine on the ticket, a loss in Ohio or Georgia calls the race for Clinton.
- If Clinton wins North Carolina and New Hampshire, Florida likely won’t matter.
- If Florida matters, we will have another infamous Florida re-count.
|State||Polls Close (CST)||Electoral Votes||Likely Winner||Electoral College Votes||Comments|
|Maine CD #2||5:00 p.m.||1||DJT||203-165||DJT losing here could foreshadow NH|
|Maine Statewide||5:00 p.m.||2||HRC||205-165||HRC losing here could foreshadow NH|
|Virginia||6:00 p.m.||13||HRC||218-165||Sen. Kaine on ticket makes this likely HRC|
|Georgia||6:00 p.m.||16||DJT||218-181||DJT losing here foreshadows NC|
|Ohio||6:30 p.m.||18||DJT||218-199||Trump been holding lead for weeks|
|North Carolina||6:30 p.m.||15||Virtually tied|
|Florida||7:00 p.m.||29||Virtually tied|
|New Hampshire||7:00 p.m.||4||Virtually tied|
|Pennsylvania||7:00 p.m.||20||HRC||238-199||If Trump wins, he will win the election|
|Michigan||7:00 p.m.||16||HRC||254-199||If Trump wins, he will win the election|
|Iowa||7:30 p.m.||6||DJT||254-205||Trump been holding lead for weeks|
|Colorado||8:00 p.m.||9||HRC||263-205||Trump needs Independent candidates to do well|
|New Mexico||8:00 p.m.||5||HRC||268-205||Unpredictable with NM former Gov. on ballot|
|Arizona||8:00 p.m.||11||DJT||268-216||Trump loss foreshadows Nevada and NM|
|Nevada||9:00 p.m.||6||268-216||Virtually tied|
There are some very interesting linkages because of similarities of the respective states.
- If Trump loses Maine CD#2, it becomes likely he will lose New Hampshire. Similarly, if Clinton loses Maine Statewide, it becomes likely she will lose New Hampshire. Either one could be enough to tip the scales one way or another so the election could be “over” before our polls close barring an upset in New Mexico.
- If Clinton loses Virginia, she will lose North Carolina. Similarly, if Trump loses Georgia, he will lose North Carolina.
- If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, she could very possibly lose Michigan and Wisconsin where it would be a run-away.
- If Trump wins New Mexico, he will likely win Nevada and a New Mexico win would negate a loss of Maine CD#2 and New Hampshire.
As you can see, Trump has to hold ALL STATES he leads by 3% or more and run the table on the states that are virtually tied (Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada). If he runs the table but loses just Maine CD#1, we have a tied Electoral College and the House will select the next President of the United States.
The good news is Trump doesn’t have to win a state he is currently behind by more than 3% to win the election. The bad news is he has to win all the four closest states (FL, NC, NH, & NV). In short, odds of Trump winning are the same as flipping a coin twice and both landing on heads.
The American body politic is deeply divided with roughly 45% on the liberal side and 45% on the conservative side. There is about 5% which lean each way. It is my opinion that this election will be decided by the very middle 5% of the American body politic. These people usually confound the pollsters as they move generally in block on Election Day which explains Obama beating polls in 2008 and 2012 and Bush in 2004 or Reagan in 1980.
My gut: Watch Maine CD#2 & Maine Statewide. If both go one way, I think it will foreshadow the winner. That said, all of America is watching to see what happens in Florida. Been there and done that for the last four elections. Might as well keep it up.
P.S. Sorry about the format. Did the best I could in the time I had. Not the graphics wiz Pat is.