Weiland down 4%, and Republican Mike Rounds extends his lead to 18% in Rounds’ internal polling.

Hot off the press, insiders gave me a peek of the latest numbers from the Rounds campaign, and they’re showing tremendous momentum for the Republican side of the aisle.

The bottom line is that Rick Weiland is going to lose this race, and (unless Republicans get complacent,) Mike Rounds is going to win.

As part of the recent numbers, not only does it appear that former Governor Mike Rounds is pulling away, it looks as if that Democratic Candidate Rick Weiland may have poisoned his well of voters by going hard negative on Rounds – as his barrage of negative attack ads coincides with a solid drop in his ranking against the former Governor. It looks like there has been a backlash against him for it.

The Methodology? “Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey of 500 likely voters in South Dakota. The survey was conducted September 22-23, 2014, and included 125 interviews among cell phone only respondents. It has a margin of error of +4.38% in 95 out of 100 cases.”  This polling is conducted in telephone interviews, and is not one of those awful push button polls that are given to wild flights of fancy.

A polling memo from Rounds Pollster Glen Bolger at Public Opinion Strategies shares such tidbits as:

  • Rounds’ name ID is 97%, and his image stands at 52% favorable/36% unfavorable.
  • Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters have heard of Rick Weiland, and his image stands at 35% favorable/23% unfavorable.
  • Independent candidate Gordon Howie continues to have an upside-down image among South Dakota voters. Just over half (56%) have heard of him, and his image stands at 10% favorable/21 % unfavorable.
  • Rounds earns 41 % on the ballot test. Weiland clocks in at 23 %, Pressler at 19%, and Howie at 4%. Twelve percent (12%) of voters are undecided.

Rounds 41% – Weiland 23% – a full 18 points of separation. Weiland continues to duke it out for second place against Pressler.

Bolger’s basic analysis of the race, based on his polling?

The Bottom Line
Despite a barrage of negative advertising attacking him, Mike Rounds continues to lead in the race for U.S . Senate. Among key groups, including high and very high interest voters, Rounds bests his three opponents. The tough political climate and Rounds’ steady image make this an uphill climb for Rick Weiland. While the race may tighten as November 4th approaches, Mike Rounds is in solid shape to pick-up the state’s open Senate seat for Republicans.

In examining the new internal poll against measures conducted earlier, it appears that while Pressler is holding at earlier numbers, and Weiland is actually down 4 percentage points since Rounds last polled.

Another tidbit coming out of their numbers? According to the polling memo in my hands, there isn’t another state in the Union  where Barack Obama is more unpopular.  It goes on to further note that “Endorsing, supporting and in some cases – proposing to expand Obama’s policies – is toxic in SD.”

Now who would that describe? Oh, I don’t know, how about Rick Weiland, who has directly proposed that Obamacare doesn’t go far enough?

Q: What kind of reaction do you get in those communities when you tell them you support ObamaCare and expanding Medicare?

Weiland: What I say is that the Affordable Care Act was co-opted by big insurance companies and big drug companies and we didn’t get a public option. What I like are the advancements in health care delivery: covering preexisting conditions, eliminating lifetime caps; and coverage up to 26 years old on the parent’s plan. Somebody asked me today, ‘Would you repeal ObamaCare?’ I would repeal what’s not working. I would certainly keep what is working. And what I would add to it is this Medicare choice option.

Source: Rapid City Journal on 2014 South Dakota Senate race , Mar 10, 2014

Good Luck with that one, Rick.

24 Replies to “Weiland down 4%, and Republican Mike Rounds extends his lead to 18% in Rounds’ internal polling.”

  1. Anonymous

    MIke might be up 18 now, but wait until the Democrats start attacking him on the EB5 “scandal” and the press starts running daily stories on the minutiae of something that happened years ago.

    Oh wait that already happened?

    I guess Mike is going to win…

  2. anon.

    Not bad. 18 out of the 19 Rounds family members said the would vote for Mike. I am looking at you Jamison as the odd member out.

  3. Roger Cornelius

    The Mike Rounds Scandal will follow Mike Rounds right into the senate chambers and earn him a seat in front of the Senate Ethics Committee.

  4. Roger Cornelius

    Watch for when the New York Times and the Washington Post get their hands on this story, Mike Rounds maybe able contain the South Dakota press and refuse to debate and get away with it, he won’t be able to contain the national press.

    1. Joe Dirt

      NPN this week.

      But those boys are democrats who had heidepriem within striking distance of the Gov. So if that’s ‘legit’ whatever helps you sleep at night, man.

  5. Anonymous

    Just saw a really good Pressler contrast ad with Rounds. Pressler hones right in on Rounds by talking about how Pressler did not take the bribe. Wow, that is refreshing. Keep the attack ads coming, Larry!

  6. Winston

    Those are the lowest numbers I have ever seen for Rounds from a non Democratic poll and it is own poll. Those are also the lowest numbers I have ever seen for Weiland (But then again its a Republican poll).

    However, Pressler seems to be holding his own or gaining when you consider that a Republican poll has Rounds just above 40 and Weiland below 25 and Pressler in the high teens.

    The struggle for Rounds and Weiland will be to stop Pressler’s obvious momentum without potentially further legitimatizing him to the undecided or soft Rounds supporters in the process.

    If Weiland begins to attack Pressler as not being a true friend of the left, then such an attack will only help Pressler with undecideds or soft Rounds supporters. While Rounds at some point, with him at 40% and Pressler gaining support with an undecided block around 15%, will be forced to call Pressler an “Obama Republican,” but such an attack will only help and give Pressler resilience with the Left (who might begin to waive because of Weiland attacks) and will give Pressler an opportunity to challenge Rounds for going negative against an Independent (and he can probably throw something about Abscam and ethics into it as well) who normally would not have a chance against a once popular two-term Republican governor.

    What Rounds and Weiland need to understand is that Pressler has them both in check and soon to be check-mate and they are doing or soon will be doing all of Larrys work for him. If you have ever wondered why he was Rhodes Scholar, then it is best to stop now, because this race is answering the why…..


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