Hot off the press, insiders gave me a peek of the latest numbers from the Rounds campaign, and they’re showing tremendous momentum for the Republican side of the aisle.
The bottom line is that Rick Weiland is going to lose this race, and (unless Republicans get complacent,) Mike Rounds is going to win.
As part of the recent numbers, not only does it appear that former Governor Mike Rounds is pulling away, it looks as if that Democratic Candidate Rick Weiland may have poisoned his well of voters by going hard negative on Rounds – as his barrage of negative attack ads coincides with a solid drop in his ranking against the former Governor. It looks like there has been a backlash against him for it.
The Methodology? “Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey of 500 likely voters in South Dakota. The survey was conducted September 22-23, 2014, and included 125 interviews among cell phone only respondents. It has a margin of error of +4.38% in 95 out of 100 cases.” This polling is conducted in telephone interviews, and is not one of those awful push button polls that are given to wild flights of fancy.
A polling memo from Rounds Pollster Glen Bolger at Public Opinion Strategies shares such tidbits as:
- Rounds’ name ID is 97%, and his image stands at 52% favorable/36% unfavorable.
- Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters have heard of Rick Weiland, and his image stands at 35% favorable/23% unfavorable.
- Independent candidate Gordon Howie continues to have an upside-down image among South Dakota voters. Just over half (56%) have heard of him, and his image stands at 10% favorable/21 % unfavorable.
- Rounds earns 41 % on the ballot test. Weiland clocks in at 23 %, Pressler at 19%, and Howie at 4%. Twelve percent (12%) of voters are undecided.
Rounds 41% – Weiland 23% – a full 18 points of separation. Weiland continues to duke it out for second place against Pressler.
Bolger’s basic analysis of the race, based on his polling?
The Bottom Line
Despite a barrage of negative advertising attacking him, Mike Rounds continues to lead in the race for U.S . Senate. Among key groups, including high and very high interest voters, Rounds bests his three opponents. The tough political climate and Rounds’ steady image make this an uphill climb for Rick Weiland. While the race may tighten as November 4th approaches, Mike Rounds is in solid shape to pick-up the state’s open Senate seat for Republicans.
In examining the new internal poll against measures conducted earlier, it appears that while Pressler is holding at earlier numbers, and Weiland is actually down 4 percentage points since Rounds last polled.
Another tidbit coming out of their numbers? According to the polling memo in my hands, there isn’t another state in the Union where Barack Obama is more unpopular. It goes on to further note that “Endorsing, supporting and in some cases – proposing to expand Obama’s policies – is toxic in SD.”
Now who would that describe? Oh, I don’t know, how about Rick Weiland, who has directly proposed that Obamacare doesn’t go far enough?
Q: What kind of reaction do you get in those communities when you tell them you support ObamaCare and expanding Medicare?
Weiland: What I say is that the Affordable Care Act was co-opted by big insurance companies and big drug companies and we didn’t get a public option. What I like are the advancements in health care delivery: covering preexisting conditions, eliminating lifetime caps; and coverage up to 26 years old on the parent’s plan. Somebody asked me today, ‘Would you repeal ObamaCare?’ I would repeal what’s not working. I would certainly keep what is working. And what I would add to it is this Medicare choice option.
Source: Rapid City Journal on 2014 South Dakota Senate race , Mar 10, 2014
Good Luck with that one, Rick.