You can call the Congressional race now. Although, you can wager on how big the margin of victory will be. 50k versus 90.

I was chatting with a politico this morning who was remarking on the dismal voter registration numbers for Democrats, when he pointed out that right now, Republicans in South Dakota outnumber Democrats by around 70k votes. And he used Stephanie Herseth as a benchmark of how Democrat fortunes in the state have risen and fallen.

If you look at 2004, when Herseth won over Larry Diedrich in the fall, the DEM/GOP gap was around 47,000 fewer Democrats than Republicans. In 2010, when Congresswoman Noem won, the gap was actually narrower….

Republican Democrat GOP v. DEM IND, Etc. Total
2004 238,530 191,523 -47,007 72,158 502,261 * Herseth Won
2010 237,809 194,204 -43,605 85,932 519,361 * Noem Defeated Herseth
1/5/2016 237,636 167,272 -70,364 108,766 513,674 * Present Day
Difference between 2004 & Today -894 -24,251 -23,357 36,608 11,413

The 2010 race was a hard fought contest, which flies in the face of thinking it’s based on just a simple numeric supremacy.  Incumbency can play a significant factor, as I think we’d all agree. But you have to give the “strength in numbers” theory as affecting the race some credence as well.

Looking at Congresswoman Kristi Noem’s dominance between 2010 and now…

2010 Candidate Vote % Votes Noem>Opponent
Republican Kristi Noem 48% 153703 -7114
Democratic Stephanie Herseth Sandlin 46% 146589
2012 Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Kristi Noem 57% 207640 -53851
Democratic Matt Varilek 43% 153789
 2014 Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Kristi Noem 67% 183834 -91349
Democratic Corinna Robinson 34% 92485

The numbers that Congresswoman Kristi Noem continues to post in her election margins continues to be more and more impressive. As the GOP registration numbers have accelerated past those of Democrats, look at Noem’s margin of victory.

In fact, if you overlay the raw numbers, her margins of victory are climbing even faster than that of GOP registration:

Republican Democrat GOP v DEM Noem>Opponent
10/18/2010 237,809 194,204 -43,605 -7,114
11/5/2012 243,113 189,493 -53,620 -53,851
11/3/2014 240,545 176,169 -64,376 -91,349
1/5/2016 237,636 167,272 -70,364 We shall see….

In 2010, when facing an incumbent, she managed a 7114 vote margin when we had a 43,605 advantage. In 2012, her margin and the party registration advantage was almost identical.  In 2014, not only did she beat the party registration advantage, she left it in the dirt with numbers that were fully 141% of that party registration advantage.

I think we’d all agree there’s factor of incumbency to take into account, which explains why Noem’s advantage over Herseth’s in the face of stronger GOP numbers was what it was. But ever since, Noem has taken full advantage of that widening voter registration, and added to it with ever widening electoral performance.

What does this mean for Paula Hawks in the 2016 race for South Dakota’s Congressional seat?  Nothing but bad, bad news.

Democrat numbers dwindling ever further, and Congresswoman Noem’s ever increasing electoral dominance represents an effective combination that we can say with confidence means that Hawks stands no chance to win, place, or show.

The only question is how big the margin of victory is going to be.  Will Noem be able to win by a 90,000 vote margin again?  Or will Hawks keep her at a 50,000 vote margin?

Neither answer bodes well for Democrats.

31 thoughts on “You can call the Congressional race now. Although, you can wager on how big the margin of victory will be. 50k versus 90.”

  1. Did you see the Rapid City Journal article about Rounds’ coffee with constituents this weekend? When reading your post, I’m reminded of your prediction Trump would drop out after sparring with RINO McCain. Nothing this year is really settled. The anti-incumbent sentiment is as strong as ever. Kristi better not rest on this prediction.

    1. regarding trump, it seems like the republican rank and file has decided the only way to beat a series of democrat antichrists is with a republican antichrist. maybe so.

      1. by which i mean, the trump phenomenon is an abberation directly spawned by how the presidential selection process currently works. it’s not a sign of a coming great republican bloodletting in congress, in spite of a lot of peoples wishful thinking in the matter.

        1. the only thing to turn congress would be a great wave of republicans simply not voting next november, whether through various kinds of confusion or disillusionment related to party splitting, or the high negatives of the leading candidate. i think democrats are hoping for the worst split since the formation of the gop itself. if republicans don’t do a healthy examination of the last twelve years of congressional actions, come to some rational conclusions about political realities instead of screaming about this or that bill, and set a solid course in a better direction, it’s pointless to hope some magic trick will bring the party together.

      1. I think Porterhouse discovered he was flexible enough to smell his own farts and is dazed from the fumes.

    1. Porter Lansing one of the best tools in helping recruit new Republicans! Always happy to have you on the blogs here in SD!

  2. 2010 was a competitive race.

    2010 = 319,426 voters in the congressional race (including Independent candidate B. Thomas Marking)

    2014 was not competitive.

    2014 = 276,319 (in the congressional race)

    That’s a decline of 43,107 voters not showing up in a non presidential election and essentially an uncontested election.

    Noem’s vote total went up 30,000 votes between 2010 and 2014. That’s a lot. But Democrats decreased by 54,000. The margin of victory in my opinion is as much attributed to Democrats and Independents staying home and not participating in what is essentially an uncontested election while more republicans turned out because of the US Senate race.

  3. Aren’t you forgetting one big thing? In 2014, the Robinson’s campaign was often described by the DWC as an absent campaign not to mention that Robinson never ran any TV ads. No wonder Noem achieved 67% in 2014. Noem should have received well over 70% given historic standards for successful incumbent Republican congressional candidates in the state. Especially, if you consider that 2014 was a non presidential year which always works to Republican candidates favors.

    Keep in mind back in the day with less favorable voter registration numbers then the ones Noem has to work with now, Thune won I believe with 76% and 71% respectively back in ’98 and 2000. Not to mention that Pressler got 81% in the old 1st District during the “Hay Day” years of SD Democratic dominance in ’76 and then 71% in ’84; while the Democrats had a greater voter registration relevance than they do today.

    When you compare Noem to Thune and Pressler, then Noem is weaker and vulnerable in ’16 as long as Paula can garner the appropriate funds for a good run.

  4. “….Then Noem is weaker and vulnerable in ’16 as long as Paula can garner the appropriate funds for a good run..”

    Hawks has already has fallen short financially. No way she can gather enough cash to even come close to Noem.

    Sucks to be Hawks.

    1. Don’t forget a weak showing or a defeat might make Kristi call it quits, but a strong showing in ’16 by Kristi could result in an encouragement to run for Governor in ’18, which will divide and destroy the current Republican dominance in Pierre.

      Be careful what you wish for….

      1. Don’t pay attention much, do you? Competitive races every 8 years for Gov. Yet we Republicans always manage to come together just fine.

        1. There has not been a true and honest competitive gubernatorial race in South Dakota since ’86 between Mickelson and Lars Herseth and before that you have to go back to ’78 with Janklow and McKellips…. And in hindsight, I question if ’78 was even competitive given Janklow’s 57 to 43 win over McKellips primarily do to the division within the Democratic party that year between the Kneip/Wollman forces versus the McKelllips crowd….. A type of division you Republicans should be concerned about for 2018.

  5. Winston,

    In 1986, the registration totals were 49% GOP, 43% Dem, 8% Independent.

    Today, they are 46% GOP, 32% Dem, 22% Independent.

    Not quite an apples to apples comparison of the environment.

    1. Just saw some national poll results from Gallup. Dems 29%, Repubs 26% and Indy 42+%. When the Indies start looking like the majority compared to the parties, doesn’t that start saying something about partisan politics? (Something healthy I’m thinking.)

      1. It might mean something if there were actually independents who ran for office. The structure that an independent lacks in donors and organization is a major problem and why we don’t see an independent at the national level.

    2. Troy,

      First of all, that 14 pt. increase in Independents is up for grabs theoretically. If not all or most of the Independent vote.

      2018 will be a competitive year for the governor’s race. Especially, if Noem runs and Huether runs. Noem will divide the GOP and Huether will be well funded.

      It does not have to be apples to apples. 2018 will most likely present itself with new unique dynamics which could make that race competitive. Those dynamics are GOP divisiveness combined with significant cash for the Democratic nominee.

  6. Nationally Republicans have fallen 12 points in the last twelve years. Dems have fallen eleven and Independents have risen fourteen. As usual, SoDak Teapublicans are late to the table and desperately clinging to their aversion to change.

  7. Bill,

    If the growth in Independents is because they like pieces of both party’s ideologies/views, it may be healthy. If the growth is a statement of a critique of both our houses, I think it is unhealthy as the parties are failing to build up the body politic which is their collective role.

  8. Winston, your speculation may or may not be correct. However, the relevance is the mountain is higher for all you speculate to translate into fruit.

  9. I still don’t see Noem running for governor against Mickelson or Jackley. They both box her out and she doesn’t take the risk.

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