Category: 2016 Elections

From Jonathan Ellis at the Argus Leader:

John Thune would become only the second Republican in history not to face a Democratic challenger in back-to-back election cycles if Democrats fail to find a challenger in 2016, according to an analysis of Senate races by Eric Ostermeier at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs.

and…

So far, of 34 races next year, Democrats do not have announced candidates in 11 states; Republicans are still searching for candidates in four states, Ostermeier writes.

Thune is sitting on $10.3 million, a formidable amount of money. Still, following the debacle of 2010, it’s expected that Democrats will find somebody.

Read it here.

Democrats have filled 2/3 of races this cycle, and South Dakota continues to be a tough nut for them to crack.

I’m hearing through the grapevine that Democrats are at the point of having to form a “selection committee” where they are getting together to try to drive someone out of the bushes to run. More likely, it will be to talk a member of the party faithful to get out there and “take one for the team;” something more and more democrats are reluctant to do, as evidenced by their declining candidates for constitutional races.

And that’s a good point. Candidates for constitutional office contests don’t face 1/4 of the scrutiny that candidates for US Congress or US Senate face. Whoever runs can expect to have their life paraded on a statewide stage and used as fodder, including their driving record, criminal history, and any legal entangements. Any current or former employees will be spoken with for dirt to be dug up.

And it’s not a threat directed at anyone in particular. In the 24 hour news cycle, that’s just the environment candidates are going to have to be aware of and to compete in, even in ‘nice’ South Dakota.

Any candidate chose by Democrats to represent their party aren’t just going to have to contend with facing a popular opponent who has 10.3 million in the bank. They’re also going to be facing themselves, and whatever feet of clay they might have.

A reader pointed out to me today that Dems are already spooling up one of their 2014 losing candidates for a re-run.

If you recall, Ellee Spawn didn’t exactly ring the bell with her candidacy when she ran for the house in 2014 in the Sioux Falls’ area Legislative District 12.

Placing 4th out of 4 candidates, she trailed her fellow losing candidate Susan Randall by over 1100 votes, leaving her with a vote percentage of roughly 16%.

Spawn’s most notable contribution to the race last election came in the form of a bit of over-sharing on Facebook (which we noted here). Otherwise, she tended to run silent.

So, what’s a Democratic candidate who was absolutely shellacked last election to do?  Apparently, run for higher office.

According to her Facebook page, Spawn decided and announced back in April that she was going to be a candidate for the State Senate in District 12.

Well, good luck with that. She’s going to need it.

If he runs again, this would tentatively pit Spawn against Republican State Senator Blake Curd, who most would argue boasts a much more conservative resume’ than one of last election’s liberal darlings of the SDDP.

In addition to his conservative bona fides, Curd is not exactly a slouch when it comes to campaign finance or campaigning.  Spending a minimal amount, he defeated his last Democrat opponent nearly 2-1, and ended the campaign with over $7500 in the bank. Comparatively, Spawn raised $2500 in PAC money, and only managed to finagle $500 from Paula Hawks.

I suspect it’s going to take much more that that to make a race against Curd competitive, much less stand a chance to defeat him.

Going into next years’ election, it would seem that Spawn’s strategy hasn’t been to re-invent herself and her views to make her more appealing to District 12’s conservative voters.

If anything, it appears that she could be shifting further to the left in her public political stances as hinted by this post from pro-pot crusader Ryan Gaddy.

While Spawn’s campaign web site doesn’t talk about a pro-pot stance, Gaddy expressly claims that Spawn is a supporter of the illegal drug in South Dakota.

The question is whether the campaign trail will find the candidate confirming support for pot use in a medical or other manner in South Dakota?

South Dakota has not proven very hospitable towards pro-pot measures despite multiple attempts from legalization advocates, and in fact has become more hostile over the last couple of attempts. There’s no reason to believe that the trend is going to change among people who get off the couch to cast a vote, no matter what advocates claim in opposition to medical evidence.

And if candidates are already out there taking stances in support of it, it may not reflect on them well at the ballot box when that time eventually arrives.

Last night, as I was waiting for the Eagles Concert to start, I had an e-mail from a new reader who had caught my musing over whether or not Sam Kooiker was going to get into the District 32 House race with term limits affecting Brian Gosch.

Sean McPherson wanted to make sure that SDWC readers were aware that there’s someone already running for that seat – HIM.

McPherson’s bio notes that “After spending eight years in the United States Navy submarine fleet working on guidance systems for nuclear weapons and teaching electronic submarine warfare, he went to work for 4 years serving as a project manager at Intel Corporation and two years as a Field Sales Engineer for Sencore Corporation, Sean then entered full time ministry…. He serves as Senior Pastor at Real Life Church and High School Bible teacher at Rapid City Christian.”

Sean’s declaration of interest for the race makes him one of the first announced candidates for 2016.

Check out his web site here. And remember – the early bird gets the worm!

Sam Kooiker, who lost his bid to return to being Rapid City mayor for another term, has nothing written in stone regarding his political future. As he’s said to be planning, he might just decide to catch up on his fishing.

But I can’t help but notice that he resides in District 32, an area where he generally polled well. It’s also a District where State Representative Brian Gosch is prevented from running again for State Representative due to term limits. (and is said to be looking at a Senate challenge against Sen. Alan Solano.)

Open legislative seat. Mayor with really good name ID.

Do you think it might be in the cards?

Thanks to all who came to our SD Sunrise Coffee today! pic.twitter.com/b1YawccOYN

— Senator Mike Rounds (@SenatorRounds) June 3, 2015

It looks like there’s already a candidate announcing for State Senator Mike Vehle’s seat being vacated in 2016. Via Sibby Online/Mitchell Daily Republic:

That’s not just in Mitchell, Sibson said—it starts in Washington, D.C., and trickles down. That’s why Sibson said he chose to run for the one-year spot, with an eye on the Legislature next year when Sen. Mike Vehle’s term ends in the District 20 senate seat. Sibson has run for state senate twice against Vehle in 2010 and 2012, losing both times.

“It will only be natural for me to use this experience on the school board, to carry that forward to the state level,” he said. “That’s where things need to be fixed, is at the state level.”

Read it here. Or here.

Take a look at the article on Politico, about how Democrats are lining up to ride Hillary Clinton’s coat tails, hoping for a boost in the polls:

Her campaign is still in its infancy. The presidential election is nearly 18 months away. But Democrats are already banking on a “Hillary effect,” an anticipated wave that will lift the party’s fortunes up and down the ticket.

Party officials are using Hillary Clinton’s candidacy to recruit candidates at every level of office and employing a simple pitch: Democratic voter turnout tends to be higher in presidential election years — and next year, the former secretary of state’s historic candidacy and formidable organizing efforts will have an especially catalytic effect.

Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee vice chair who’s recruiting women to run for the House, has been convening bimonthly dinners with a group of other female members of Congress and potential future colleagues. She estimates she’s brought half a dozen candidates to the dinners so far — and the topic regularly turns to Clinton.

“A lot of the time the conversation goes to how Hillary Clinton is likely to be at the top of the ticket and how that will be helpful for the candidate,” Bustos said.

Read it here.

In South Dakota, the possibility of Democrats applying this in the state raises a couple of thoughts.

I’m specifically wondering about Democrat Paula Hawks, who is anticipated to be entering the congressional race in South Dakota. There had rumors about her announcing a couple of months ago, but the latest I’m hearing is that she’s going to announce in July.

I can’t help but ask ‘why she pushed things back to the summer?’ Was it suggested to her to hang back for a couple of months while the Clinton effort got underway?  Sharing some of the same views as Hillary Clinton, Hawks would seem to be a natural to jump on the Clinton bandwagon.

The looming question in red-state South Dakota would be whether or not running to the left of Obama is a winning formula here.

Coming as the second in a pair of recent legislative appointments from Governor Dennis Daugaard, State Senator Scott Fiegen is no stranger to government.

According to his bio, the replacement for outgoing District 25 Senator Fiegen has been serving as the mayor of Dell Rapids. After serving as a city alderman from 1998 to 2001, Scott Fiegen served as mayor from 2001 to 2007 and returned to the office in 2009. He works as director of software engineering for Meta Payment Systems in Sioux Falls.

Also according to his bio, Fiegen and his wife, Teri, have two grown children. They have been actively involved in their community and attend St. Mary Catholic Church in Dell Rapids.

That’s all standard biography material, so let’s dig a little deeper and find out more. And please enjoy 5 questions with ……………. Republican State Senator Scott Fiegen:

1. Can you give us a brief rundown of what in your background you believe has prepared you best for serving in the state legislature?

I have served as an alderman on the Dell Rapids City Council from 1998 thru 2001. I have served as the mayor of Dell Rapids from 2001 thru 2007 and 2009 thru the present. This gives me the perspective of both the legislative and executive side of government. I have been meeting with other mayors for several years, which has allowed us to share issues facing our community. Through this experience I have learned what is needed in the communities I represent.

2. With your appointment to the office by the Governor, you were quickly thrown into elections for caucus leadership. Was the process anything like you’d would have anticipated?

I think it was much more relaxed than I thought it would be. All of the Senators were very friendly and welcoming.

3. A lot of times, people have an opinion of GOP State Senators, that they can check off a list of where they stand on certain issues, and anticipate how they’ll vote. Are there any issues where you might stand apart from a majority, or that people might be surprised to learn?

This was a tough one. I think I stand firmly on traditional GOP issues, but I like to think I have an opened mind. I would say abortion is a possible issue. I do not believe in abortion. The federal government ruled on the legality of abortion with Roe vs. Wade in 1973 and has upheld it all these years. Because of the federal government ruling I don’t think the state should pass legislation we know will be overturned and waste taxpayer dollars.

4. Are there any specific issues or areas that you anticipate focusing your energies on during the upcoming legislative session? What committees are you hoping to serve on?

I am not going into the office with any preconceived notions. I will focus on small government, no unnecessary taxes or legislation. I will also focus on municipal government issues. As far as committees, I would have an interest in serving on local government and taxation. I would also be interested in government operations & audit, judiciary and legislative procedure. I guess I will have to wait and see where they place me.

5. If it’s not referred by the voters, a change in state law this year could have you collecting petition signatures in December, and starting out your 2016 political campaign before you travel to Pierre for your first session. How are you preparing your first race as a Republican candidate for State Senate?

My plan is to speak to former Senator Tim Rave and ask him many questions. I will also speak to others I know within the legislature for advice. The rest I will figure out as I get closer to the race.

 

And those are our 5 questions with District 25 State Senator Scott Fiegen. What do you think?