Marsy’s Law To Hold Election Night Party In Sioux Falls 

(Pierre, SD)—The Marsy’s Law for South Dakota campaign is holding an election night party in Sioux Falls on Tuesday, November 8.  The event will be held in the Revir Ballroom at the Downtown Hilton Garden Inn located at 201 E. 8^th St, Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The public is invited.  The event will start at 7:00pm and last until 11:00pm.

Representatives from the Marsy’s Law campaign, including prosecutors, victims and victim advocates will be available for press interviews.

Representatives will also be available for phone interviews at 605-280-7767.

“We are humbled by the outpouring of support we have received across the state,” said Jason Glodt, former Assistant Attorney General and State Director for Marsy’s Law for South Dakota. “Volunteers have been working tirelessly across the state for months asking people to give equal rights to crime victims. On Election Day, we have the opportunity to make history for victim rights in South Dakota!” 

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As of Friday, almost 40 million Americans have already voted and there will be roughly 80 million votes cast tomorrow. In other words, the election will very soon be over except for counting the ballots.  Within 48 hours, this thread will become moot.

According to realclearpolitics.com, average of all polls, Hillary leads Trump by roughly 3% with roughly 7% who are undecided.  This translates into a Hillary Clinton lead in the Electoral College Votes 301 to 237. 270 Electoral Votes needed to win. 269 Electoral Votes is a tie.

In other words, for Trump to win, he has to win states which total 33 electoral votes currently in the Clinton column (actually 32 as it would be likely the House would elect Trump if there is a tie).

Going into the election right now, Clinton has in the bank 203 Electoral Votes vs. 164 for Trump (“in the bank” is shorthand for leading in the polls by more than 5%).

The following is my cheat sheet. If a “Likely Winner” loses a state I’ve allocated to them, they must pick it up somewhere else.

• If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, Virginia or Michigan, she must win Florida. If she loses two of these three, call the election for Trump.
• If Trump loses Ohio or Georgia, he would have to win Virginia and New Mexico or Virginia and Colorado.   As winning Virginia is unlikely with Senator Kaine on the ticket, a loss in Ohio or Georgia calls the race for Clinton.
• If Clinton wins North Carolina and New Hampshire, Florida likely won’t matter.
• If Florida matters, we will have another infamous Florida re-count.

State	Polls Close (CST)	Electoral Votes	Likely Winner	Electoral College Votes	Comments
Maine CD #2	5:00 p.m.	1	DJT	203-165	DJT losing here could foreshadow NH
Maine Statewide	5:00 p.m.	2	HRC	205-165	HRC losing here could foreshadow NH
Virginia	6:00 p.m.	13	HRC	218-165	Sen. Kaine on ticket makes this likely HRC
Georgia	6:00 p.m.	16	DJT	218-181	DJT losing here foreshadows NC
Ohio	6:30 p.m.	18	DJT	218-199	Trump been holding lead for weeks
North Carolina	6:30 p.m.	15			Virtually tied
Florida	7:00 p.m.	29			Virtually tied
New Hampshire	7:00 p.m.	4			Virtually tied
Pennsylvania	7:00 p.m.	20	HRC	238-199	If Trump wins, he will win the election
Michigan	7:00 p.m.	16	HRC	254-199	If Trump wins, he will win the election
Iowa	7:30 p.m.	6	DJT	254-205	Trump been holding lead for weeks
Colorado	8:00 p.m.	9	HRC	263-205	Trump needs Independent candidates to do well
New Mexico	8:00 p.m.	5	HRC	268-205	Unpredictable with NM former Gov. on ballot
Arizona	8:00 p.m.	11	DJT	268-216	Trump loss foreshadows Nevada and NM
Nevada	9:00 p.m.	6		268-216	Virtually tied

There are some very interesting linkages because of similarities of the respective states.

• If Trump loses Maine CD#2, it becomes likely he will lose New Hampshire. Similarly, if Clinton loses Maine Statewide, it becomes likely she will lose New Hampshire. Either one could be enough to tip the scales one way or another so the election could be “over” before our polls close barring an upset in New Mexico.
• If Clinton loses Virginia, she will lose North Carolina. Similarly, if Trump loses Georgia, he will lose North Carolina.
• If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, she could very possibly lose Michigan and Wisconsin where it would be a run-away.
• If Trump wins New Mexico, he will likely win Nevada and a New Mexico win would negate a loss of Maine CD#2 and New Hampshire.

As you can see, Trump has to hold ALL STATES he leads by 3% or more and run the table on the states that are virtually tied (Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada). If he runs the table but loses just Maine CD#1, we have a tied Electoral College and the House will select the next President of the United States.

The good news is Trump doesn’t have to win a state he is currently behind by more than 3% to win the election. The bad news is he has to win all the four closest states (FL, NC, NH, & NV).  In short, odds of Trump winning are the same as flipping a coin twice and both landing on heads.

The American body politic is deeply divided with roughly 45% on the liberal side and 45% on the conservative side.  There is about 5% which lean each way.  It is my opinion that this election will be decided by the very middle 5% of the American body politic.  These people usually confound the pollsters as they move generally in block on Election Day which explains Obama beating polls in 2008 and 2012 and Bush in 2004 or Reagan in 1980.

My gut:  Watch Maine CD#2 & Maine Statewide. If both go one way, I think it will foreshadow the winner.  That said, all of America is watching to see what happens in Florida.  Been there and done that for the last four elections.  Might as well keep it up.

P.S.  Sorry about the format.  Did the best I could in the time I had.  Not the graphics wiz Pat is.

Back towards the end of November in 2012, just after Thanksgiving, Former Governor Mike Rounds officially announced that he would be a candidate for the US Senate in 2014.

Former Republican Gov. Mike Rounds announced plans Thursday to seek South Dakota’s U.S. Senate seat, setting up a 2014 battle between two men who have never lost an election – a campaign that figures to draw widespread national attention as Republicans and Democrats jockey for control of the chamber.

Read that here.

It didn’t come as a huge shock, as Rounds had made an earlier announcement of it at a Lincoln Day Dinner in October, but it licked off the campaign and Rounds started raising money and campaigning in earnest.

Fast forward a couple of years, and we’re literally at that same point at the end of the 2016 cycle.

So, after the election, will we see Marty Jackley schedule a visit with the Sioux Falls media?  Will Mark Mickelson announce a press conference?

And what about Kristi Noem?

Noem is arguably the key driver in how 2018 will play out. If and when she jumps in for Governor, it sets the table for her successors to start showing their cards. If she decides to stay in Congress, it may be a largely mano a mano contest for Governor.  The outcome of tomorrow’s election will probably be the deciding factor in whether she chooses to stay in Congress, or run to be South Dakota’s next Republican Governor.

And once that decision is made, we still may not hear for several months.

It could be a wild ride over the next six months as to which candidates will and which won’t on the Republican side. We may see Mike Huether run on the Dem side, derided as a DINO, facing a far more liberal candidate.

And if there is a congressional opening, get ready for the real free-for-all.

I was speaking with one of our Statewide officials today about the ballot measures, when he brought up an issue I hadn’t considered on Amendment V.  The consequences of V dawned on me, because one of them is being used by a sponsor of Referred Law 19 as a reason to vote against that measure.

On the ballot position statement for Referred Law 19, opponent to the measure Cory Heidelberger notes that the measure needs to be defeated because..

RL 19 moves the deadline for candidate petitions from the end of March to the beginning of March. Candidates for Legislature would have to decide whether to run or not before the Legislative Session ends.

Candidates would lose most of the longer, warmer days of March to circulate petitions. In exchange, RL 19 gives them December, whose short days, cold weather, and holiday busyness make it the worst month for petitioning. These conditions mean fewer candidates will run for office.

Read that here.

Basically, aside from trying to tell us that liberals can’t collect petition signatures in the cold, the argument against it is that “Candidates for Legislature would have to decide whether to run for office before the legislative session ends.”

But take a look at Amendment V. In our discussion today, my statewide official friend pointed out thar among the many things V does is trigger and accelerate a race of general election proportions to take place at the time of the primary election – which will have the effect of starting the election process far, far sooner than it would have for many state offices currently selected at the political party conventions.

Ironically, those opposing RL 19 at the same time they support Amendment V ignore  the unalterable reality that Amendment V would trigger a widespread acceleration of all of the statewide races, including and especially constitutional offices, which had previously not had primary elections in early June.

If Amendment V passes, look for the election process for all of these offices to begin earlier than ever in 2017, with potentially earlier petition collection being sought by all of the statewide candidates, since they would want to have that process out of the way before they began their campaigns in earnest.

When it comes to the ballot measures, it’s ok to want the length of the election to stay the same. But, if that’s the case, you can’t oppose RL19, and support Amendment V.  Because the passage of either would have similar effects on lengthening the election season for South Dakotans.

Attorney General Jackley Joins Amicus to Protect Religious  Freedom 

PIERRE, S.D. – Attorney General Marty Jackley announced today that South Dakota has joined 12 other State Attorneys General and the Governors of Kentucky and Mississippi in an amicus or “friend of the court” urging the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals to uphold the religious freedom of students in the Birdville Independent School District (BISD).

“The framers of our South Dakota Constitution opened their sessions with a prayer in 1883, and our highest court has held that this practice may continue with our  legislature and other governmental bodies,” said Jackley. “The student expressions permitted by school board policy are the private speech of the student and prohibiting the students from presenting an invocation of their choice would be a violation of the students’ First Amendment Rights.”

American Humanist Association is challenging the BISD policy allowing volunteer student speakers to express a message of his or her own choosing at the start of     school board meetings. BISD established a policy in March 2015, which allows students to sign up for a random drawing to determined who will speak at the opening of the meeting. The students are responsible for the message and the content, some include religious message in their  remarks.

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South Dakota Joins Wolf Release Challenge to Protect State Wildlife Management and Livestock Interests 

PIERRE, S.D. – Attorney General Marty Jackley announces that South Dakota has joined 16 other states in an amicus or “friend of the court” brief that argues the U.S.  Fish and Wildlife Service (USFW) was properly enjoined by the Federal Trial Court from further release of Mexican wolves pending permits from the State of New Mexico. The brief was filed in the U.S. 10th  Circuit Court of Appeals.

“The release of wolves can have a devastating effect on wildlife management and livestock producers. The States have historically managed the wildlife within their borders and are better equipped to balance wildlife needs with  our  agricultural  interests. The federal government is ignoring the interests of our States by introducing wolves into the State’s wildlife system and then not allow the State to manage and balance wildlife and livestock interest,” said Jackley.

New Mexico denied the request by the USFW to release Mexican wolves, but did not permanently veto the wildlife release. New Mexico officials asked that the USFW prepare and submit a federal species management plan along with the permit  application so that state officials could determine whether the proposed releases would conflict with state conservations management efforts. The USFW failed to submit any such plan.

Federal regulation requires the USFW to adhere to state permit requirements prior to releasing wildlife under certain federal programs unless the state requirements impede the Secretary of Interior’s ability to carry out her responsibilities under the    Endangered Species Act. The brief argues that it provides an important check on  federal authority to intrude into wildlife management, an area that is generally the purview of the States.

There is no cost to the State of South Dakota to join this challenge.

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Congratulations, Deb!

As noted earlier, the election is drawing to a close, and the liberals behind Amendment V are cranking up the advertising in an effort to try to convince South Dakotans that it’s a “bipartisan” effort. And that actually could not be farther from the truth. The Big Lie in this campaign is that this is a “non-partisan” effort.  If you take a hard look at it, it’s all being driven by the Daschle/Johnson machine.  

That’s why Slick Rick Weiland & Drey Samuelson sent out that e-mail appeal letter from Daschle and Johnson on October 24th (Which you read about here.)

And that’s why you have a rogue’s gallery of South Dakota liberals who donated to the effort to erase party labels from the ballot, and to remove Independents from the fall election:

• former Democratic Senator Tim Johnson put in another $50k
• former Democratic Senate candidate Rick Weiland $15k
• former Democratic governor candidate Scott Heidepriem $2500
• former Democratic state legislator Sandy Jerstad $1000
• Democratic Senator Tim Johnson’s chief of staff Drey Samuelson $50k
• former SD Democratic Party executive director Bret Healy
• liberal activist Cathy Piersol
• SD Democratic Party’s lawyer Jim Leach
• Democratic appointee Dallas Tonsager
• Jeff Navin (Democratic congresswoman Stephanie Herseth cheif-of-staff and Tom Daschle staffer)
• Daschle political operative Jody Severson
• former SD Democratic legislator Linda Lee Viken
• SD Dem national committeeman Bill Walsh
• Democratic fundraiser Christine Hamilton ($2k)
• Daschle staffer Peter Stavrianos ($1000)
• Democratic governor Kneip cabinet official Rich Garry
• Democratic mayor candidate for Sioux Falls Vernon Brown 

If you think this is a bi-partisan effort, don’t kid yourself. It’s not. It’s designed to hide party labels from the public, because Democrats haven’t put the time and effort into cultivating theirs over the years. So, it’s in their own interested to conceal their damaged brand from the voters.

Don’t be fooled.  On November 8th, VOTE NO on Amendment V.

There’s Always More Work to Do
By Sen. John Thune

Growing up in a small town has its advantages and disadvantages, depending on who you ask. But if you ask me, my siblings, or my dad who still lives in the house we all grew up in, there’s nothing but upside. Growing up in small-town South Dakota helped shape who I am, and it laid the foundation for the opportunities I’ve had in my life. Sure, Murdo didn’t have shopping malls, amusement parks, or movie theaters, but that was part of what made it such a great place to grow up. It would be an understatement to say we lived small, but we always dreamed big. And if I could do it all over again, I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Thanks to my mom and dad, my siblings and I learned to love reading, music, sports, and the great outdoors – we still do today. Attending a small school in a small town meant I had no trouble being in band and choir or making the basketball, track, or football teams. I was often able to participate in more than one club or sport at a time, which was a luxury the “big city kids” didn’t always have. Today, my three-point shot is still better than my singing voice, but I guess some things never change.

The Midwest values I grew up with in South Dakota helped take me to Washington, D.C., because I did more than just believe in what my parents taught us, I lived by the principles they instilled in us – like hard work, loyalty and dedication to family, and giving back to the community in which you live. Being your senator is more than a job title for me. That’s why I take great pride in not only being the senator from South Dakota, but more importantly, the senator for South Dakota and the people who call it home.

We’ve accomplished a lot of big things for South Dakota in the Senate over the last two years. As chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, I led the way on critical rail reforms that will help address major backlogs like the one that squeezed South Dakota’s economy in 2013 and 2014. I played an integral role in getting the first long-term highway bill in nearly a decade to the president’s desk, which will help agriculture producers, shippers, and consumers. And as chairman, I wrote a comprehensive transportation security bill that will help protect air travelers in South Dakota and around the country. I could list more, but the only thing more important than what we’ve been able to accomplish in a relatively short period of time is the significant work that lies ahead of us.

As many South Dakotans can attest to, work never ends on the farm or on the ranch. It never ends in Washington either. The nation’s economy is weak, and it’s not growing fast or strong enough. The Obama administration’s takeover of the nation’s health care system is failing, and the tax code is complicated and outdated. There’s always more work to do, and I’m up for the challenge. As your senator, I will always fight hard in Washington because I’m inspired by how you continue to fight here in South Dakota for the values in which we all believe and share. You’re what makes South Dakota the greatest place to live, work, and raise a family. There’s no way around it.

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Thanking our Veterans
By Senator Mike Rounds

Each year on November 11, we recognize the service made by our country’s veterans. The date is meaningful, as November 11, 1918 is the day World War I finally came to an end and November 11 became a holiday called Armistice Day. In 1954, the 11th day of November became a legal holiday, reminding Americans to honor all veterans. This year, we commemorate the day by thanking the generations of South Dakotans who have answered the call to serve.

South Dakota has one of the highest rates of military membership per capita in the nation, and we are home to more than 72,000 veterans. It is a privilege for me to serve on two Senate committees tasked with improving service for current military members and veterans: the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee.

I have introduced and cosponsored a number of bills specifically designed to help veterans. The Veterans First Act, which I cosponsored, takes meaningful steps to hold the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) accountable and, in turn, improve care for our nation’s veterans. This bill truly puts the needs of our veterans first by addressing the lack of accountability at the VA.

The Veterans First Act includes a number of provisions I offered to improve care for our veterans, including the Veterans Choice Equal Cost for Care Act, which amends the Choice Act by eliminating the “secondary payer clause” to make certain veterans do not pay more for private care under the Choice Act than they would if they were seen at a VA facility. It also includes my Veterans Health Administration Spending and Transparency Oversight Act. This legislation requires the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to produce an annual report to Congress detailing the cost of the health care it provides. Having accurate cost accounting by the VHA will help Congress identify legislative options aimed at better health care for our nation’s veterans. I’m hopeful that Congress will pass the Veterans First Act before the end of the year.

We have four offices throughout South Dakota staffed with specially-trained individuals who can help veterans navigate the often confusing bureaucracy at the VA. We understand that it can be frustrating to have an issue with the VA and not know the best way to resolve it. That’s why we are here to help in any way we can. My website, www.rounds.senate.gov, has a list of our office locations and phone numbers. Please let us know if we can help you with any problems you’re having with the VA.

Making sure our veterans get the best possible care in the timeliest manner is one of my top priorities working as your senator. Earlier this year, I held a tele-town hall with South Dakota veterans and their families, representatives from the VA and the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee. It was a great opportunity for veterans to get their questions answered by experts in the field. We hope to continue doing these tele-town halls in the future.

Our nation’s veterans committed to selflessly defend our freedoms. Now they deserve a commitment from the country for which they so bravely fought. This Veterans Day, we say ‘thank you’ to our veterans and their families, we remember those who paid the ultimate sacrifice, and we continue doing what we can to improve the lives of the men and women who donned the uniform of the United States of America.

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