Heard something interesting yesterday.
Apparently word is getting around the halls of government in Pierre that former GOP ED (and current 
Dept of AG head) Lucas Lentsch is considering following in John Thune’s footsteps. Word is that if there’s an opening for the Congressional seat, if Kristi Noem makes the jump to run for Governor, he may very well be running.
I say he would be following in Thune’s steps, as Thune, a former GOP ED himself, made a move after the SDGOP to state government before running for Congress himself. (There was also an intervening stop at the Municipal League).
The Directorship of the Republican party is a great place to meet the activists who will likely be the foot soldiers supporting a fledgling congressional race, and it’s a great leg up. Thune used his contacts and strong grass-root base and parlayed it into a victory over sitting Lt. Governor Carole Hillard.
The rest is history.
If Noem decides to make a run, it’s anticipated that it could be a crowded race. Observers also expect there’s a possibility former PUC Commissioner and Teenage Republican Advisor Dusty Johnson, who would share that GOP base with Lentsch, could take a stab at it. Having been elected twice statewide, Dusty could be fierce competition with an army of the youngest and energetic activists the GOP has matriculated over the past decade or so.
Some think Secretary of State Shantel Krebs could also take a run after her first term is up. As the Constitutional officers are chosen now, she could lose that race, and still have the SOS office to fall back on as a secondary position, running at convention weeks after a congressional loss, so there would be little holding her back from a run.
Gubernatorial counsel Jim Seward’s name had come up as a possible Congressional contender, 
however, there are some who see a different path for the former State’s Attorney.
In addition to Congress, Seward’s name is one of those that keeps coming up in the race for Attorney General in 2018, alongside Deputy AG Charles McGuigan, House Majority Leader Brian Gosch, and former US Senate Candidate Jason Ravnsborg. But ultimately, it all comes down to the delegates.
Many of the GOP delegates are not terribly familiar with McGuigan, who has been a steady hand at the AG’s shop, but has generally eschewed politics.
Gosch, who has been a good majority leader for the House, has the misfortune of being a target of the disaffected wing of the GOP, simply because he represents part of what they view as “the establishment.” In a convention contest, that could be a block of votes against him.
Jason Ravnsborg is a regular fixture at GOP Events across the state getting familiar with the delegates, and would be viewed as quite conservative in the race. But the question is how receptive delegates will be to someone who has not been a State’s Attorney?
Having gone to he Governor’s office in 2010, Former Butte County SA Seward has managed to stay out of some of the internecine fighting in GOP trenches over the past 4-5 years. And as a west river conservative, he could pick up some of the Stephanie Strong/Gordon Howie types who won’t support Gosch.
But….. one thing to keep in mind. It’s still only 2015. And with the races for these offices a long, long way off, we might be finding ourselves taking an eraser to the entire chalkboard with the playing field sketched on it.
At least a couple of times.
Very nice post PP. I think Seward and Lentsch outclass Dusty Johnson for congress. Dusty is a liability for the party in the general because he left office without serving one day of his second term. It’s one thing to be a candidate for PUC and another to be seen as congressional. He’s not viewed as congressional.
Seward would win this race if it were a three person race between the former governors staff. He’s just that good and voters will see it when he runs. No one wants to be AG.
I’ve heard Seward would be more likely to be interested in US Attorney than AG. I don’t think he runs for AG. Gosch might but he might also think Noem or Mickelson want him for LG.
Happy wishing and hoping there, but I don’t think Hillary would ever appoint him as the US Attorney.
Speaking of wishing and hoping. I doubt she will even be the nominee. Can you run from behind bars?
All three of the Daugaard disciples will have good and not so good things attached to them by association with the current administration (even though none of them have voting records of their own). Since Denny might have a tough time deciding which one of his kids to feed, maybe he’ll pull a Janklow and run himself!
I’d feel differently if Dusty resigned to work for the private sector. He continued to work for the people of SD. It’s hard to say “no” if the Governor asks you to serve. I agree it has hurt him politically, but not everyone is motivated to make the safe political decisions.
At this point, I don’t think it’s a problem for Dusty. it’s a political office, not a life sentence. He certainly has given quality service to the State of SD. I’d like to see any potential opponents make the argument against it. I don’t think they can.
You may be right Pat but when John Thune ran for office and said what he would do on day one in the senate it didn’t involve resigning…
You know, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Thune wins reelection in 2016 and then resigns in early 2017 to join a GOP Administration.
Yes it actually is very unlikely because John Thune won’t be going anywhere. He is going to be SD’s Senator for a long time. That is a good thing and we are lucky to have him. He knows he will do more good in the US Senate than as the head of an organization of a president.
He will also be majority leader soon enough.
Noem – Governor
Seward – Congress
Wolman – Ag
Dusty!
Lentch would make a good congressman.
Mickelson Gov
Gray Congress
Seward Ag
Haha get out of Pierre sometime
Lucas will build a strong team his network in the GOP gives him a big advantage over Dusty and his team of TARs
The sleeper story of ’18 could be Richard Sattgast. I predict he launches a run for AG in his quest to make history and become the first to win the Constitutional Office Grand Slam. Time to redo those AFLAC commercials!
liability or not i’d vote for dusty for anything and everything he runs for. no question about it.
We are very lucky to have such a deep bench and can have a real choice because of it. The Dems have no one outside of Stephanie and Brendan who could crack 40% against a single person named above (save for maybe Ravnsborg).
Unfortunately for the GOP the Dems top two are pretty darn good candidates in addition to not having to spend all the money on a big primary. The Dems will have a big financial advantage coming out of the primary because whoever wins this will have spent every penny in the account.
Noem will not run for governor. I see Krebs as more likely to run for Governor someday than congress. She is also a top option for Lt. Gov by any of the mentioned candidates. Seward is the strongest of the governor’s staff.
Don’t leave out Tom Deitrich. He’s really opening up his options now.
That was sarcasm, right?
Sattgast could be a top contender for US Rep if Noem makes the move to be Governor. He’s been elected state wide and hes a veteran that gets my vote. A ture conservative and a steady handed.
I find it interesting the different answers you’ll get to these types of conversations depending on where you are located. As someone from SF, I can tell you that some of the names mentioned above (particularly Lentsch, Seward, Sattgast) are not the names that get thrown around much for Congress. It’s more like Jackley (because he can’t compete with Noem and Mickelson), Westra, Erickson, and maybe Dusty.
Being in the Pierre echo chamber might be helpful in a race that’s picked at the Convention. But when it comes to running in a primary you need to be known outside of Pierre (or be very compelling ala Noem in 2010). Very few of these Pierre lackeys are known well enough statewide.
I’m from around SF and I can tell you that none of those names get mentioned for Congress or Governor (referring to Westra, Erickson or Dusty. Most don’t know Dusty, Erickson is a city councilor and Westra is low key). Jackley will be a formidable force for Governor in ’18. I might even say he is number 2 right now in a three way race with Noem and Mickelson.
I wonder what circles you’re running in in SF if you haven’t heard discussions about any of those names running for higher office.
Also there was this: http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/columnists/stu-whitney/2015/07/24/christine-erickson-city-council-stu-whitney-politics/30641421/
I’m not from SF but just because Whitney fawns over her brother all the time doesn’t make her a credible candidate for statewide office. Yes she is a good city council woman and yes she is fine but that doesn’t mean that people who read that article took it seriously. If someone said Erickson was going to be a candidate for mayor I think most would have said i could see that. She’s on the city council and she’s young but that seems logical that she might run. When he says she could be governor or congresswoman or win a primary against those people mentioned above like Seward or Lentcsh who have networks I think that most people wonder how? And if regular readers think that then people who are active in politics think that for sure.
Whitney is considered a weak reporter by most people in SD.
I’m a fan of Erickson. I hope she runs for Mayor and I hope she runs for Governor from there. But to be honest with you I’m not sold on the fact that she can win a mayoral race against Jamison or some of the others in SF… YET. Give her time.
Westra would be the best candidate for Ag.
Except for the fact he’s not a lawyer.
Mickelson and Noem would be a coin flip.
for second. Jackley will be a big surprise to many of you when he hits the trail.
It’s less than 25% that Noem runs for Governor in ’18.
Everyone knows Mickelson is running he’s at every political and nonpolitical event in the state. What’s Marty waiting for?
I’m laughing out loud at the self promoting and slamming going down here. Remember the General Public gets to pick all the Statewide candidates and every district ; 35, have 25,000 or so people in them. Remember one thing about South Dakotans; if you are running for office and want their vote, go to their town and ask them to vote for you in person. Running for and winning a seat in the Legislature gains friends in nearly every town willing to help out in the meet and greets. Politics being local.
You’re a good man Charlie H.
Agreed, Charlie. Most of this discussion is just between a few people who are already connected to some of the names mentioned.
That’s kind of what I like about the SDWC.
It is always very interesting reading the analysis on this page. As time goes on, it appears that the analysis on this page becomes more detached from the real mood. Tossing around conservative so easily and trying to predict what the conservative base is really going to do is what really amuses me. I believe the Stace Nelson candidacy may have been a defining moment for conservatives–they will no longer stand idle when RINOs run and try and appeal to the base. Bush, Graham and Rubio have discovered that conservatives are no longer willing to be spoken for by the left of the GOP.
Lucas Lentsch is an empty hat. We have way more qualified people than that guy
Hold on. Lentsch knows what he is doing. He is a man of principle and someone who loves his country and state and party.
Lucas Lentsch might not be who I bet on if I was a bettering man but a GOOD man he is.
Mayor Huether will easily beat anyone the GOP runs for Governor. That leaves Johnson and Herseth to determine who will take back the Congressional seat.
weiland sure ‘took it back,’ i like how that turned out.
All good people mentioned above. I have my favorite but I like all of them.
I like that idea of running Shantel for Congress! Definitely over any of the others mentioned.
Yes. She’s my favorite also. A true reformer who would shake the government up in Pierre or DC.
Krebs will be in the running as an LG pick for all three candidates. She’s hard working and would bring both $$$ and votes.