Cook Political report updates Congressional baseline analysis: Noem can likely hold this seat as long as she wants.

@SoDakCampaigns

The Cook political report (Subscription required) recently updates their baseline analysis for several states including South Dakota. And what they had to say shouldn’t come to any shock for SDWC readers.

Because Congresswoman Noem is not going anywhere anytime soon, and is ranked as Solid Republican:

SD-AL: Kristi Noem (R) – Entire state

Solid Republican. After skilled Blue Dog Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin held this seat for six years, Republicans finally caught the break they needed in 2010 when Noem, a state representative with farm roots and appeal, capitalized on a great GOP year to beat Herseth Sandlin 48 percent to 46 percent. Noem wasn’t just an ideal image comparison for Republicans. She developed into a serious and aggressive candidate who proved adept at staying on the offensive, hitting Herseth Sandlin on support from EMILY’s List and her husband’s lobbying role. In a year like 2010, any ties to the inner dealings of Washington were toxic, especially in a small town state like South Dakota.

and…

Democrat Matt Varilek, an energetic 37 year-old former aide to Sen. Tim Johnson, sought to turn Noem’s record on ag issues into the silver bullet he needed to beat Noem in a reliably GOP state. Varilek raised a very respectable $983,000, and earned strong reviews on the stump. But Noem wasn’t about to be caught napping: she raised $2.8 million, contested Democrats’ allegations on her committee attendance, and reclaimed the offense by hitting Varilek for earning environmental degrees abroad (Varilek won a scholarship to attend the University of Glasgow) and for advocating cap and trade in the past. Noem prevailed 57 percent to 43 percent.

In 2014, after passage of a new five-year Farm Bill, Noem finally found her footing, defeating 25-year Army veteran Corinna Robinson 67 percent to 33 percent.

and…

Noem can likely hold this seat as long as she wants.

Read it all here. (Subscription required)

102 thoughts on “Cook Political report updates Congressional baseline analysis: Noem can likely hold this seat as long as she wants.”

    1. Sure why not? She’s a solid Whig. If this was 1850 she and Boehner would be compromising to pass the Fugitive Slave Act.

      No wonder she remains the darling of South Dakota Whig College insiders.

  3. I get why pierreites want to be governor or why people in sd want to be governor but sd is just fine.

    Noem is at the forefront of the conversation in dc right now. I don’t see this country getting on the right track for another few years. If Noem up and leaves dc and all of the messes we have as a nation to govern a state that is A-rated in every category I will view her as walking away from the problems this country faces as if she didn’t feel she could make a difference.

    Why would someone at the forefront of the most pressing issues of the day take a pass to tackle something like governor of sd at a time when we are sailing smoothly?

  5. She would make an outstanding governor. I really hope she runs and wins, she will bring fresh ideas and common sense to that office.

    1. She could run for President too! One of the most effective and thankfully conservative legislators in Congress using Conservative principles as her guide.

    1. Every moderate big government loving “Republican” is a conservative in an election year.

      I have heard plenty rumblings about potential primary opponents as there is a definite grumbling from conservative Republicans across the state about her.

      2. Any primary opponents of Kristi will be crushed! Her record represents true conservatism!

        2. The defintition of “true conservative” in this state means being a cheerleader for John Boehner. And we know how effective he’s been.

      3. you all just go and keep yourselves amused. i have noticed that the world has just about stopped giving a crap what you folks think ‘conservative’ is. there’s just a big old ‘yawn’ out there, the louder you get.

        1. Yeah, that’s why they all claim to be “conservative” when they run. You never hear them confess they’re moderates.

          1. the charge of being ‘moderate’ is your accusation. i am quite familiar with rush limbaugh’s famous list of complaints against those who are centrists. i’m not a centrist, but just because you lay out a crazy definition of ‘conservative’ doesn’t mean you get permission to yank stripes off my sleeve or some such nonsense for thinking that you are crazy people who should sthu for a change.

          2. Sorry to disillusion you, but even Stace Nelson had no plans to detonate a suicide bomb during the SOTU speech

            1. I don’t see any difference between Noem and Rounds. If some have a problem with Rounds they should also have the same problems with Noem.

              I’m tired of the double standard some people have. They would vote together 99.9% of the time while voting with Thune.

              I’ll never understand why some people get a free pass. None are Ronald Reagan. I’m ok with that but this country needs a Ronald Reagan again. Rounds, Noem and Thune will all make good soldiers in that persons army.

  8. I would call her a true American Patriot. She pulled herself up by the bootstraps. A hard scrabble life to an American success story!

      1. ‘farm subsidies’ in and of itself isn’t a criminal charge. explain how they work, their history, and the cardinal sins committed by those who receive them. don’t leave out what happens to the farm economy if they go away.

        1. Who said anything about farm subsidies being a criminal charge? Explain where it’s stated anywhere in that comment. Don’t leave out that you made it up and you’re not very bright.

      2. Ha ha ha. And I’ll bet Kristy Cheerleader is chagrined that SHE didn’t think up a sad story about going to school with bread bags tied over her shoes instead of Joni Ernst.

        1. what are you blathering about? noem has a great personal narrative, better than ernst’s actually.

          1. Maybe. But she’s still a Ditz. With a lot of money in her coffers meaning she feels she can completely ignore constituent services. Because clowns like you who think she’s great haven’t the vision to see much past the Minnesota border and don’t understand what is possible. Oh well, she may be a Ditz but she’s OUR Ditz.

  9. To recap: some of you think she’s not conservative because she hasn’t set fire to or bombed the US Capitol building.
    Others of you think she would give up a job with no term limits and a salary of $174,000/year, to take a job with term limits and a salary of $104,000/year.

    I think y’all are crazy.

    1. Ah, I get it….. SO Kristi Cheerleader’s primary political motivation is money, eh? Well, it DOES beat shoveling shit up there on the ranch, doesn’t it? And THAT’s why you love her! Now THAT’s a “true patriot” if I ever saw one. Nice.

  10. True American Patriots don’t commit calumny and defame anonymously. That is the tactic of coward jihadis.

    1. Your Lordship, it’s time for you to step out of the 1920s and your Downton Abbey mindset and remember this is America. Americans are allowed to criticize elected officials. Just because you think some of the comments against your beloved Republican Congressmen are defamatory does not mean they are. Speaking of jihadis, do you know the reason why terrorists stormed the offices of Charlie Hebdo magazine?

      On the History Channel is a terrific mini-series titled Sons of Liberty. I recommend you watch it. And if you don’t have time, have it on in the background. You can still learning something by listening.

    2. Don’t be an ass, Troy. Politicians are a petty breed and will often take advantage of their priveleged positions to take retribution against those common people who disagree with them. Such political backlash is worse for those who have some connection to the government. Anonymity and Pseudonymity are all too often necessary to the true exercise of free speech.

    3. Calm down, Troy WHIG– Kristi and the gang will look after your business interests……no matter what. After all, this game is all about money isn’t it?

  11. While I like Kristi Noem, I believe she needs to do like John Thune did when he was in the House. After three terms he moved on from the House. That was his pledge and he honored it. I would like to see her move on to something else as well. IMHO one of the biggest problems is we do not have a citizen legislature and have entrenched people instead. After a while they all come to the DC mentality.

    1. thune never renewed that pledge to my knowledge, or advocated since then that others should take it. it’s fascinating to me that limited government people ask government to enact so many extra little rules and micromanagements so they don’t have to actually get off their butts and engage in politics themselves. if you want to limit someone’s term, throw them out at the next election by winning the argument in the public arena for doing so.
      oh yeah, it’s better to set up an extra little house of government control than to actually interact with a major political party that doesn’t fully reflect your unique value set. (what party could?) this is why libertarians come into being, they detect the hypocrisy in this, but decide they can’t be in a major party.

      1. Don’t be obtuse. The parties have established electoral regulations that favor their continued monopoly. In most, if not every, state it is more difficult to be a nonaligned candidate than it is to run under the aegis of either the dems or repubs. The system is rigged in the favor of two private clubs.

        1. if you mean that the two party system runs everything, and there’s no magic path that independents can walk on to get a win, you’re right about that. the nature of politics is a close relative to the nature of war – force versus oppositional force.

          i don’t know when the narrative in which you believe ever held sway, that the goody-good patty-cake system where everyone has an equal chance is in the hands of evil collectivists enslaving us all. i do know that’s part of the fairy tale that glenn beck tells about the desires of the founders and how ‘we lost our way.’

          the notion that the u-s two-party system is some form of co-dictatorship is wrong, and it does a disservice to the true monopolies that exist in the dictatorships and communist nations on the planet.

          to sum up, i disagree with your disagreement.

          1. You either misunderstand or purposefully misrepresent my position. Many states have electoral regulations that place a greater burden on non aligned candidates. That is not equal treatment under the law. It is corrupt and unjust.

            1. as long as democrats can’t outlaw republicans, a free system exists. the nuances and problems faced organizationally by micro parties doesn’t interest me. i heard you just fine.

                1. oh? i think a fool would look at the pragmatic needs of what it takes to actually win an office, then decide that losing in the most dirt-avoiding way (quickly) is much better.

    1. why does this keep coming up as if it matters? the us-congress state term limits was thrown out nationally in a mid 90s supreme court decision. the only reason the illegal law was retained in 2006 was because it was lumped with a bunch of other state law odds and ends in an omnibus removal referendum which failed in an off-year election cycle. it has never been a front-of-mind issue for most voters.

    2. I don’t support term limits for our state legislators because we have too powerful of an executive branch right now.

  13. Anti-Partisan,

    I have no problem that you have a pseudonym if you use it consistently so you can be held to some degree of account for logic, consistency, etc. from post to post and thread to thread. It at least allows some degree of comprehensive conversation.

    The person who hides behind a name used by 50% of the posters to attack personally another person (elected or not) is a coward. And, which is a form of lying, sometimes the same “Anonymous” person will post three times on a subject giving a false impression the position is held by multiple people and sometimes will even praise the “themselves” similar to a Facebook “like.”

    They are cowards and liars and i won’t hesitate to call them for it.

    Again Anti-Partisan, if you use the same pseudonym my statements above don’t apply to you. I understand and respect your decision to not use your name. However, I think the failure to use your name also requires from an integrity perspective a modicum of minimizing personal character attacks.

    2. thanks for hearing me out a few times, i enjoyed it. i’m very optimistic about the future of the gop, i am i am.

    3. Troy,

      I agree that having various posters all contributing under the same name frustrates the conversation.

          1. i get it. adopting an assumed name is a little better. i’ve opted for style differences instead.

    4. And yet many of our Founding Father’s did exactly that, sniped from the shadows under cover and concealment.

      Your disgruntled dissertations about anonymous postings reminds me of Michael Moore’s cowardly attack on Chris Kyle and military snipers.

    5. So if you can’t live by the rules of this blog Troy Jones, then you should start a blog of your own. Hey! You could call it the SOUTH DAKOTA WHIG COLLEGE.

      I’ll bet you didn’t play well with others when you were a child.

  14. Here is the real irony of the statement by Term Limits.

    He want us to adhere to the Constitution but holds out as a principle something that has been declared un-Constitutional. It goofy.

    And, if this was an over-riding concern/principle of the people, they can vote Noem out for that reason if they so choose.

    I think all these criticisms are agenda-driven or personal. If they were real, they’d use their name.

    My bet: Most people think she is doing a good job and she will slaughter anyone who chooses to run against her, especially in a primary. But, as Exodus says, this is all talk. Nobody will primary her.

    1. Few, if any, are in a position to do so. With backing from Thune’s key financial and political contacts, no other potential GOP rival will be able to wage a successful coup from within.

          1. or it goes the other way, a lot of people wake up and remember the splinter party fiascos of ross perot and pat buchanan, and the gop leadership and conservatives have a serious meeting of the minds. that’s my hope. that the crazy far right gets smaller and smaller.

      2. When she’s doing a great job, there’s no need for a potential GOP rival to challenge her. Those that do challenge in a primary will try to show how much “more conservative” they are….and the results will be exactly like we saw in 2014. Far right wing candidates crashing and burning.

        1. Curious what the professed differences were in the GOP statewide primary candidates that made those that lost, “far right wing.”

          Could you enlighten us as to the stated position differences on the candidates that justify your categorizations.

          1. 1. a constant war against the republican establishment, 2. agreement with anyone (including democrats) who would help them sabotage mike rounds, 3. stump speeches that simply regurgitate the feel-good red meat that the congressional tea party members toss out to the tea parties, with no hint of competence in handling the state’s issues in congress.

            that’s pretty much it.

    2. ….Uh huh. But then, “most people” in South Dakotaville are like most of the folks in Hooterville. The entire state functions on the principle of cronyism.

      So, it doesn’t matter much whether she’s a ditz; what matters is that she’s our ditz. And she’s just so perky and cute! And even better, she is a cow girl. How darling. So she must be good. She just has to be, right Troy? Right?

      Because in South Dakota, where political awareness by the average voter is an extremely rare and fleeting quality, it is possible for people like Kristi cheerleader, Stace Nelson or Frank Kloucek or countless morons in county government to be re-elected term after term after term in this state’s relentless drive to move backward toward the 19th century. The joke of a term limit law that is in place in South Dakotaville is proof of a corrupt and crony-driven political reality.

        1. No. You’re not paying attention. I already said that about 30 posts back…do your homework before opening your piehole. ha ha

          1. i didn’t say you didn’t say it YET. i said you forgot to repeat yourself again again. whig-peeper

  15. Anti-partisan,

    There is a lot of discontent in this country. We not only fight about the goal, which goals should be higher priority, and the means to get there.

    At the end of the day, I generally agree with Thune, Rounds, & Noem on the goals and in most cases priorities. I’m not there so I’m willing to defer to their judgment on the best way to get there and I’m not going to criticize them on every strategic and tactical move they make. Heck, before Congress was even sworn in, drumbeats of criticism started against the GOP in both Houses.

    Regarding 2016, I have no idea how you reach this conclusion. Significant changes in prospects can change in October of 2016. We are way too far away to predict this since the only significant thing that has occurred is Jeb is in, Mitt is out and we don’t even know who is running under the Dem’s. Personally, I think we have a very strong slate of primary candidates and the campaign will hone their messages and skills such I believe we will nominate a strong general election candidate that will work well with Congress to move the agenda forward.

    1. Troy,

      Many of us have been disabused of our faith in the GOP generally to represent our priorities. You only have to look at the backlash against the most recent GOP budget coupled with the anger concerning the reappointment of Boehner and the installation of McConnell. There’s an alarming disconnect between the National Party and its voting base. The election in 2014 was a nationwide repudiation of Obama; it was not an endorsement of the status quo within the GOP. The GOP, being the only game in town, was the benefactor of circumstances, not the author of its own success. If current trends continue, the base will sit on its hands in 2016.

      1. ‘alarming disconnect’ wow, the only alarming disconnect I’ve seen in recent years is the distance between gordon howie’s last internal polling and the actual reelection result. Boehner’s well on the way to proving his bona fides but a small percentage of the party will never forgive, never forget. so be it.

    2. Well, correction: Mitt is out, and Walker is in. At least for now. But he’ll no doubt prove to be unacceptable to the GOP establishment turds like McConnell and Boehner. They’re damned sure not going to support a reform conservative when they’ve padded their own pockets with feeble, worn out status quo mindset. Which enables the Democrats to outfox them at every turn.

      Any Governor who can pin back the ears of the radical Left in his state, defeat the usual coalition of public service employee unions, teacher unions, pare back outrageously high union pensions and implement school reform, bring a budget in the red into the black in four years AND win 4 elections including 2 re-call elections driven by the anarchist Left, deserves serious consideration for 2016. Apparently the GOP in Iowa and New Hampshire agree. Watch Walker SOAR—- until brought down by his own party.

  16. Anonymous,

    You are a coward and a liar. And, highly egotistical to compare your need to not even use a pseudonym to the threats born by the Founding Fathers or invoke Chris Kyle. I can’t believe you’d so compare yourself. Now you are also a pig.

      1. (sigh) not again, he’s on the rampage about anonymous posting.

        I love when he claims he knows who anonymous posters are! I’ve been called “Bree,” “Sibby,” Stace Nelson,” and “Bill Fleming!”

          1. if the shoe fits you should wear it. mr jones speaks from knowledge and experience that he’s proud to put his name on. good for him. the eagle ends up hunting the lowly flea a bit too often around here, flea.

  17. About this anonymous crap, I keep thinking about how at least 3 of my ancestors fought in the American Revolution, 2 were Generals, one was a Colonel in the Continental Army. It’s a pretty good bet that if the cause had been lost, the officers would have been rounded up and tried for treason.
    So, don’t call yourself a patriot and post anonymously, okay?

    1. Well, I guess that gives you the “rank” to sit in judgment on those who chose to post anonymously.

      As sure as my name is Bocephus Suckit, we will all show your comments the proper respect they deserve in the future and not post anonymously.

    2. Anne, stop riding the coattails of your betters and presuming it somehow speaks to your virtue. Said another way…be silent.

  18. I think Mickelson and Westra are expecting Kristi to run for Governor and that would allow Mickelson to still be a strong candidate for governor and Westra to run for Congress.

    It will be a very interesting next couple of years.

    I don’t see Mickelson or Jackley flinching if Noem starts showing interest in running for governor. I’m not sure Noem feels totally confident that she would win a race against Mickelson. Lot’s of moving parts in this state. Many of Noem’s top donors are probably the same people who have spent the last 20 years telling Mickelson to run for governor so we will have a lot of things to watch.

  19. Anti-partisan,

    This article in the Wall Street Journal might assuage some of your discontent with our GOP leadership and members in Congress. The tactics and strategies available them to actually affect moving the agenda forward require choices that create cross-pressures and selection of priorities. Especially in an environment when the GOP doesn’t occupy the White House or have super-majorities in each house, expecting and demanding focus/effort/resolve on all issues only results in rhetorical “success” and little actual legislative success.

    http://online.wsj.com/articles/gop-lawmakers-weigh-contentious-tactic-to-dismantle-health-law-1422638911

    P.S. I apologize the article requires a subscription to the Wall Street Journal. Copyright laws (or the restrictions on how I get to read it on my computer) prevent a cut and paste beyond a couple of sentences which are insufficient. Sorry.

    1. I’m not anti GOP leadership but it would be nice if the current members had bigger goals than they are displaying on a day to day basis.

      What has Noem done? What has Johnson done? What has Thune done? What did Herseth do? I don’t see any of them speaking out against their own party and I don’t see any of them ready to advance big conservative ideas. they are all loyal soldiers. Like them or not Daschle and Janklow got stuff done. Mickelson got stuff done.

      I have a feeling Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and a few other senators want to get something done. I hope SD’s delegation chooses to get something done in the next few years that advance the conservative cause.

      1. you’re anti-reading obviously. the people you lumped together are in different parties. thune and noem are republicans, while johnson and herseth are democrats. thune and noem talk about conservative issues a lot, johnson and herseth, almost never.

        1. and to talk about the need for conservatism while lauding tom daschle is the most outrageous juxtaposition i may have ever seen in here. wow.

  22. Anonymous 3:18:

    I was at lunch today and was asked who I like in the primary. My answer:

    1) Whether you agree or not with Paul on the vaccination issue, that was an unforced error. Moved down a peg in my mind regarding viability. Less about the issue but the lack of judgment by talking about an issue that has no upside. 90% of Americans generally support vaccinations.

    2) Walker moved up a peg and is who I’m most watching. My main concern about him is he has little experience in the national stage and is susceptible to an unforced error. Needs to concentrate until summer on organization and fundraising. If he speaks out, speak out on an issue he has great expertise (federalism, getting federal government out of lives and not hot button issues). There will be a later time to differentiate on issues. Don’t get distracted to issues that divide.

    3) Bush and Rubio are the best candidates to “cut off Hillary” in the new swing states (Colorado, North Carolina, & Florida) because of the concentration of Hispanics. Only one will last long and Bush is likely to do so because of existing organization and fundraising prowess.

    4) Unless they can do what Walker is doing and show it by summer, all others are campaigning for VP.

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