Argus/KELO Poll shows Dusty Johnson up by nearly 20 points, Krebs has highest unfavorables

Pat Powers

From the Argus Leader, the Argus/KELO Poll would give the indication that the race for Congress might be close to being decided:

In a survey of 625 registered Republican voters likely to cast their ballots in the election, 41 percent they would vote for Johnson if the race were held today. Twenty-three percent, meanwhile, said they’d vote for Shantel Krebs and 13 percent said they’d vote for Neal Tapio.

Another 23 percent said they were undecided.

and…

Forty-seven percent of those polled said they had a favorable opinion of Johnson while 10 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, 34 percent of those polled said they had a favorable opinion of Krebs and 19 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her.

When asked about Tapio, 15 percent said they had a favorable opinion of him and 11 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him.

Read it all here.

What are your thoughts? It might be hard to move that many percentage points between now and the election.

15 thoughts on “Argus/KELO Poll shows Dusty Johnson up by nearly 20 points, Krebs has highest unfavorables”

    1. Dusty will get the most votes. The question: will he garner 49 percent? 51 percent? maybe 54?

    1. Neal must be sweating and praying for the domestic Terrorist attack he claimed would ensure immediate victory. Will need a few more crypto Klan rallys too

  3. All candidates: There are is a large segment of the population who recognize the candidates who have a neutral impression. They are likely a large segment of the 23% undecided. They will determine who gets second and if it is close.

    Dusty Net Favorable: 37% This is likely sufficient to win the election unless the recent effort by Shantel can increase his negatives. Not sure though it impacts the favorable Will mostly impact the “neutrals.”

    Shantel Net Favorable: 15% Shantel’s negatives are equal to Dusty and Neal combined. Explains why she went so negative. My guess part of her negatives is how she kept pounding personally on Gant. Especially in a primary, there becomes a point when you can assert what you accomplished but continued berating Gant becomes like beating a dead horse.

    Neal: 4% His early effort to get name ID may have resulted in as much negative or positive. He is lucky nobody listened to that podcast and his last debate will help him in the final vote total unless voters think he is a wasted vote and go with one or the other.

    1. and wouldn’t that be a stunner….Krebs is throwing all in on negative and it could backfire big time

  5. This is great news for Dusty. I don’t think Tapio can pull off second place when more than a third of the people polled don’t recognize his name so close to the election.

  6. I wouldn’t attribute Krebs’ low net favorables to Gant-bashing. Gant left the SoS office a dumpster fire. Krebs’ dog-whistle racism and buddying up to Steve King and Kris Kobach hurts her among moderates and the business community.

  7. Hi I’m Neal Tapio I just spent $200,000 of my own money to finish 3rd or maybe with some luck a distant 2nd in a congressional race….OUCH

  8. Putting a lot of stock in one poll of 600 voters. Polls can be way off and skewed based on who was called. Remember Hillary had a 95% chance of winning on election day. There are a lot of voters who are not happy with the system and the establishment and the direction the country is headed.

  9. She can come out 2 ways in tonight’s debate:
    1 – double down on the bomb throwing and exaggerations, which she probably will. That will grow her negatives though.
    2 – she can be smart and go positive and cling to the hope of being Marty’s LG, but that requires being a party builder. Not her strong point.

      1. Well, I am guessing there is another poll ready to be released. That will probably be today. It will be interesting to see where that one says the election is.

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