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The cards keep coming in – Merry Christmas wishes from Attorney General Marty Jackley and his family.

Merry Christmas from US Senator John Thune – Here’s the 2016 Christmas Card for the good Senator.

With regards to former Democrat Mayor Mike Huether, upon his abandonment of the Democrat brand that helped his rise to power in South Dakota’s Largest city; I had a thought last night.

If he’s going to shed the Democrat brand and go independent in his ambitions for higher office, as he declares himself a moderate in conservative South Dakota, where is he going to draw his votes from?

If I think of Mike Huether that way…. I can’t help but think of a Republican who went independent, Larry Pressler.

Pressler had been more conservative (in addition to having had a lot of people vote for him over the years), yet in his race as an independent, with far more statewide name ID, and a very long history of people voting for him, he could only place third in the US Senate Race. In fact, if you look at this chart from Ballotpedia…

Running as arguably the independent with the highest name ID in State history, Larry Pressler could not move past 20%. And more importantly, what he did do was steal votes from the Democrat in the race, Rick Weiland.  If Weiland could have had Pressler’s votes, he would have been within 10,000 votes of Rounds, instead of 60,000.

With Mike Huether, you have a lesser known candidate, with no statewide campaigning experience; now former Democratic Obama Delegate self-identifying as a moderate. I can’t envision a scenario where he steals votes from any well-defined Republican candidate in deep red-state South Dakota.

But what he does do – and we in the GOP should love this – is fracture the voting bloc of the opposition. Let’s say we have a race for Congress as follows…

Republican	Dusty Johnson
Democrat	Ryan Casey

Certainly, Republican advantage. Dem is generally an unknown quantity, but there is a generational component for Dem nostalgia, coming as the son of one of their prior candidates, so there could be some excitement generated in Dem circles.  The Dem Party (or it’s current empty shell) would get behind their candidate, and might even get excited about him… as opposed to the current crop of what they have to offer.

Now, throw Huether into the mix.

Republican	Dusty Johnson
Democrat	Ryan Casey
Independent	Mike Huether

Mike Huether is not going to pull votes from the Republican.  In this, and almost any case, with Huether in the contest, I would argue that Huether causes the race to go from Republican advantage to Republican certainty. 

I argue that Huether splinters the vote enough that he becomes their ultimate spoiler. He isn’t conservative to draw off those who rail on about “the establishment” from the Republican candidate.  For Democrats, he’s about as establishment as they come, and may draw off the few remaining business oriented Democrats, and those Dems who otherwise reject the Bernie Sanders wing of the SDDP.

I don’t see any scenario where he can pull out a win. His only possible road forward is to act as the biggest spoiler that Democrats ever saw.  And (borrowing from Ghostbusters) he has become the “form of their destroyer.”

Agree? Disagree? Think he can somehow pull Republican votes running as a “Moderate former-Democrat?” The floor is yours.

I’m not sure how they fit all the reporters in the Huether “Abandon the Dems” presser today..

Well, that came out of the blue.  Tonight’s Argus Headline:

South Dakota Obama elector Mike Huether has taken a good hard look at his party…… and said “Bleaugh.”  Huether held a presser today to tell everyone he’s registering as an independent.

According to the twitter feed of Argus Reporter Patrick Anderson, Huether’s statement is that he’s taking inspiration from Donald Trump, and that while he claims is isn’t about party he notes that “Dems at national level aren’t responding to “hunger” for change.”

And laughably, “Mayor hasn’t told SD dems about his decision.”

The whole comparing himself to Donald Trump…  or moreso comparing Trump to him was probably the most notable barfbag statement.

Trump is “stirring the pot” just like he did when he first became mayor, mayor said.

— Patrick Anderson (@ArgusPAnderson) December 19, 2016

Good Lord, Huether’s ego shows no boundaries.  All that’s left is for him to announce what office he’s running for in 2018.

From KELOland:

A protest is scheduled in Pierre on Monday as the members of the Electoral College vote to make Donald Trump the 45th President of the United States.

Protesters are planning to be outside South Dakota’s State Capitol building beginning at 9 a.m. They’re urging members to “respect the will of the people and reject Trump to vote for the winner of the national popular vote.”

Read it here.

After reading this announcement, I sent a note to a friend, asking him to swing by to snap a photo for me just to see who has time for a fool’s errand this morning in Pierre.

So he goes over there (at about 5–10 minutes til 9), and instead of a picture of them organizing, I get a very pointed message regarding the favor I requested of him.  Specifically, he asked “Where the **** are they?”

Um, I’m not thinking that this sounds like much of a protest.

He just sent the above at 5 minutes after the alleged 9AM protest start time. That doesn’t look like protesters unless protesting is social justice warrior code for clearing the snow off the front walk.

My correspondent did follow up, hanging around for a few minutes, and is telling me that there is absolutely nobody out there, and that the local station, KCCR radio, also drove by looking for these ‘alleged’ protesters.

So, more people cleaning snow off the steps than protesting. (And I owe my correspondent a favor for sending him on a fools errand when it’s as cold out as it is, because there’s absolutely no one there.)

So much for the great 2016 Donald Trump South Dakota electoral college protest.

If you’re up for some more political reading this morning, Professor and Senator John Thune mainstay Jon Lauck has written a great piece on how President-elect Donald Trump captured the fancy of midwestern voters, how the Clinton Campaign was an exercise in electoral malpractice, and how the mainstream media seems fixated on the liberal elite, and not “real people.”

As demonstrated by the starkly different voting patterns between university counties and rural Midwestern counties, the election returns in 2016 exposed cultural divisions in the Midwest and the nation that are worthy of serious examination. Demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution called this a “cultural-generation gap” between rural Republican Trump voters and modern urban Democratic voters.

Long-time reporter, Midwestern analyst, and author Richard Longworth argued that it was “impossible to overstate the alienation between the two Americas, between global citizens and the global left-behinds, between the great cities that run the nation’s economy and media, and the hinterland that feels not only cheated but, worse, disrespected.”

and…

Madison Avenue advertisers, ever responsive to cultural trends, adjusted to these cultural criticisms after the election – they announced that they would be reorienting their work away from “metro elite imagery” and more toward “Des Moines and Scranton.” When hiring workers, they decided a diversity hire “can be a farm girl from Indiana as much as a Cuban immigrant who lives in Pensacola.”

The narrow visions that limited the media and advertising worlds, some argued, also prevailed in the entertainment arena. One commentator noted how an “industry arose to cater to the smug style” of the “educated, the coastal, and the professional” in the form of the “Daily Show” and other programs which “advanced the idea that liberal orthodoxy was a kind of educated savvy and that its opponents were, before anything else, stupid.”

Great stuff. Read his entire analysis here.

Well I learned something today. In South Dakota, Democrats hold an advantage. If they add independent voters to their rolls. And they can win if we follow Ann Tornburg math, named so after the South Dakota Democrat Chairwoman, who just ran the Democrat party into record low numbers of elected officials:

 ….voter registration with Independent voters and Democratic voters is still a significant majority, but it’s turning out everyone in both of those classifications of voter registrations, Democrats and Independents and convincing them to engage in down-ballot issues and that’s a problem that we definitely have.

Read that here.

Well, technically yes. If you add the 170,000 Democrats to the 120,000 Independents, you could try to claim more than the Republican party’s 253,000 voters. You could try if you’re a fool, or a simpleton.  

The fact is that just because Dem leader Ann Tornburg tries to claim Independents in public statements doesn’t mean that they claim her. In fact, imagine 120,000 people quietly sidling away from her at the cocktail party because she sounds ridiculous.

In reality, as opposed to where Ann lives, when they vote, Independents generally break along the same proportions of those who identify a party registration in their voting behavior. For example:

What’s interesting is when you break out those independents. As we noted in August, most independents lean toward one party or the other — and in 2012, the majority of those leaning independents voted for their preferred party’s presidential candidate. (According to the book “The Gamble,” 90 percent of Democratic-leaning independents backed Obama in 2012, and 78 percent of Republican-leaning ones backed Romney.)

Read that here.

This is not a secret thing taught to exclusively to political scientists. It’s Voter Behavior 101. Another example:

The result is a distorted picture of the nation’s political makeup, according to political scientist John Petrocik of the University of Missouri. In an analysis just published in the journal Electoral Studies, he argues that the definition of independent voters used by many pollsters is far too broad.

Americans, he noted, “prefer to think of themselves as independent-minded and inclined to judge candidates on their individual merit.” But, he finds, “Very few Americans lack a party preference.”

Although an increasing number of Americans are calling themselves independents, Petrocik argues this is “more a matter of self-presentation than an accurate statement about our approach to elections, candidates, the parties and politics in general.”

And…

“While a disproportionate numbers of swing voters are independents, two-thirds of independent voters are not swing voters,” added Tom Jensen, communications director of Public Policy Polling.

“This idea of the sage citizen who eschews party affiliation, is unbiased and persuadable by reason and facts, is very much a myth,” said Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. “Most people are committed to a party.

“They may not like the label, so some call themselves independents. But there are very few people who fit the archetypes of the wise, centrist independent. People who don’t have a lot of opinions tend to be disengaged from politics and less likely to vote.”

Read that here.

In South Dakota, guess what? If we accept the premise that 2/3 are not truly independent (I think that’s a little low) Of those roughly 120k independents, maybe 40,000 are true swing voters.  Of the rest, 60% – or roughly 48,000 look at what the Dems have to offer and go “bleaugh,” and vote GOP. Around 32,000 of those independents should generally align with Democrats. 

Adding all that up should give us a generally consistent 60/40 voting split between the 2 major parties. But that’s not what has been happening. South Dakota Democrats are so awful they have been having difficulty getting 30%. And that’s symptomatic of a political party which has utterly abdicated pretending to be one. 

In other words, attempting to pretend that Democrats can carry even half of independents is an utter fantasy. Or Ann Tornburg math. You achieve equally silly results. People might declare themselves to be independent, but how they vote typically reflects society as a whole.  

And in South Dakota, our society has repudiated the Democrat party, and all that it represents.

Merry Christmas, From My Family to Yours
By Sen. John Thune

The holiday season seems to arrive sooner and sooner each year. With it comes the joy and happiness of being able to spend time with our loved ones, reflect on the blessings of the year, and rejoice in God’s gift to mankind – that’s what this time of year is all about, after all. I’m grateful to be able to spend the holidays in South Dakota, healthy and happy, which is the greatest gift I could receive. And I always look forward to this time of year when I’m able to create new memories with friends and family as we celebrate the traditions of Christmases past.

It wouldn’t be the Christmas season without a trip down memory lane. Whether it’s sledding down Jackson Ave. in Murdo as a kid, spending all of those Christmas Eve nights at my grandmother’s house, or watching Brittany and Larissa perform in church and school Christmas programs, the memories still make me smile. When you think about it, memories like these, which are unique to every family, really help define the holiday season. Looking back, I’m so thankful for everything with which our family has been blessed. 

This time of year, I can’t help but think of all the moms and dads and sisters and brothers who will be spending the holiday season away from the comfort of their own homes. It would be an understatement to say the brave men and women in the military make innumerable sacrifices in their career, and spending the holidays halfway around the world is no exception. Their service is the most selfless gift anyone could give, and their sacrifice is not lost on the American people.

I was fortunate to have been able to participate in the recent welcome home ceremony for the South Dakota Army National Guard’s 196^th Maneuver Enhancement Brigade. It’s always good when our troops return home safe and sound, but for them and their families, I don’t think there’s any better time of year than now.

I say it every chance I can get, but it’s the hard-working people of South Dakota who make our state the best place to live, work, and raise a family. On behalf of my family – including the newest addition, my granddaughter Henley Joy – I want to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas and a happy holiday season. I hope it’s as memorable as it is merry and bright. 

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Investing in Infrastructure is an Investment in the Future
By Sen. Mike Rounds

In 2017, with a new president in office and a reinvigorated Congress eager to get to work, finding ways to help grow our economy will be a top priority in Washington. For the first time in nearly a decade, we will have an executive branch willing to work with us to reform the tax code and undo many of the burdensome regulations that are preventing job creators from expanding their businesses. Additionally, we will have a president in office who has committed to investing in infrastructure across America, another important tool that is critical to our economy.

Infrastructure is defined as basic organizational structures that are needed for the operation of society. This includes roads, railways, electric grids, pipelines, water systems, bridges, ports and airports, among other things. There is an expectation among Americans that no matter where they are across the country, they can expect clean water when they turn on a faucet and safe roads and bridges when they travel from place to place. 

A strong infrastructure system is important for public safety, and it has many economic benefits as well: it helps us maintain international competitiveness, creates jobs in construction and manufacturing industries and helps us make sure we are at the forefront of cutting-edge technology. A vibrant infrastructure system also strengthens national security: because we depend so heavily on travel and electricity to go about our daily lives, a breach in one of these systems could have far-reaching effects. In fact, the Department of Homeland Security has identified 16 different critical structures whose assets, systems and networks are considered so vital to the U.S. that their destruction or disruption would have a “debilitating” effect on our nation.

Putting people to work may be a short-term positive effect when we break ground on new infrastructure projects, but any project in which we choose to invest taxpayer dollars must also grow the economy. It’s important that we don’t start new projects simply for the sake of starting projects—we need to be guaranteed a return on our investments.

Since the beginning of the Roman Empire, infrastructure has been a key component of prosperous, thriving nations. After the development of the aqueduct, for example, the ancient Romans were able to move water long distances, thus expanding their empire. The growth of the United States is directly tied to innovation and infrastructure development. In the 19th century, our country expanded to the west as travel became more accessible. People and products could be moved on new rail lines, roads and waterways. It increased our ability to trade with others, move people to new parts of our burgeoning country and, as 19th century journalist John O’Sullivan put it, spread the “great experiment of liberty” west to the Pacific Ocean.

Since the early days of our republic, our infrastructure system has played a vital role in the growth of our country and the strength of our economy. As we begin work in the 115th Congress, investing in infrastructure will be a top priority.

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