Post “Placeholder Bailout” Senate Power Rankings
Now that the placeholders have taken a step back from running the political atmosphere has changed slightly, so while we wait for new candidates to drop in their spot (or not), I thought it might be a good exercise to see what the lay of the land is.
So, unless we pick up a couple of replacements from Democrats which are not expected……
D |
Rep |
Dem |
Other |
Power Rating |
Notes |
1 |
|
Frerichs |
|
Dem Over |
|
2 |
Greenfield |
|
|
GOP Over |
|
3 |
Novstrup |
Heidelberger |
|
Strong GOP |
Longtime elected official |
4 |
Wiik |
Tyler |
|
Lean GOP/Toss Up |
Toss Up District w/2 who have faced election before. Tyler Comes with a lot of |
5 |
Tapio |
|
|
GOP Over |
Tapio has it won, barring a replacement |
6 |
Otten |
Boese |
|
Strong GOP |
Incumbent v. unknwn |
7 |
Tidemann |
Perpich |
|
Strong GOP |
Long-time Incumbent v. unknwn |
8 |
Youngberg |
Parsley |
|
Lean Dem |
Youngberg running aggressively. |
9 |
Peters |
|
|
GOP Over |
Peters is over |
10 |
Haggar |
Powers |
|
Strong GOP |
Incumbent v. unknwn |
11 |
Stalzer |
Cool |
|
Strong GOP |
Has Cool ever won a race, despite multiple attempts? Stalzer has. |
12 |
Curd |
Sanden |
|
Strong/Lean GOP |
Curd is incumbent, but Sanden will likely take some shots at him. As long as Curd runs, he should be safe. |
13 |
Kolbeck |
Pierson |
|
Lean GOP |
Denny Pierson has prior experience, but grasping at straws anymore. Kolbeck has a good team behind him. |
14 |
Soholt |
|
Swanger |
Strong GOP |
Swanger running as conservative indy in district w/out any GOP backing against Republican. |
15 |
|
Nesiba |
|
Dem Over |
|
16 |
Bolin |
Skiles |
|
Strong GOP |
Bolin is a campaign |
17 |
Rusch |
Merrill |
|
Lean GOP |
Rusch is well respected, and the incumbent. Merrill has yet to make |
18 |
|
Kennedy |
|
Dem Over |
Stone ran good campaign 2 years ago,but withdrew for employment |
19 |
Nelson |
Graef |
|
Strong GOP |
Graef was recently arrested for DUI. Nelson will win. |
20 |
Klumb |
Berg |
|
Lean GOP |
Klumb is from right area in District, but Berg is not inexperienced. |
21 |
|
Sutton |
|
Dem Over |
|
22 |
White |
|
|
GOP Over |
Absent a replacement, it’s done. |
23 |
Cronin |
|
|
GOP Over |
|
24 |
Monroe |
|
|
GOP Over |
|
25 |
Langer |
Barth |
|
Toss Up |
Both candidates have visibility in district that has elected Democrats in the last decade. Langer is excellent candidate, but Barth isn’t inexperienced. |
26 |
|
Heinert |
|
Dem Over |
|
27 |
|
Killer |
|
Dem Over |
|
28 |
Maher |
|
|
GOP Over |
|
29 |
Cammack |
|
Kindler |
Strong GOP |
I can’t even tell you |
30 |
Russell |
LaRive |
|
Strong GOP |
LaRive must have escaped the last Democrat Bounty Hunt in Fall River |
31 |
Ewing |
|
|
GOP Over |
|
32 |
Solano |
Hubbard |
|
Strong GOP |
It is over |
33 |
Jensen |
Stuck |
|
Strong GOP |
Unless Jensen says something |
34 |
Partridge |
Schultz |
|
Strong GOP |
Over |
35 |
Haverly |
|
|
GOP Over |
|
The tale of the tape has Democrats giving up 10 seats as uncontested at this point, while Republicans are giving up an unusual 6. Primarily because of a lack of competition for Heinert & Sutton, and what happened in District 18.
Otherwise, I think the races have remained fairly steady since the post primary review. Watch for things to start to shift slightly in the next 30 days when everything starts to gear up.
Still, I’d rather be in the GOP’s shoes than the Democrats, as they’re giving up an incredible 30% or so of the seats in the State Senate, while Republicans are only taking a pass on 17%.