Category: Uncategorized

Jay Williams had another barn-burner of an interview this week, this time sitting down with the Mitchell Daily Republic yesterday, where he showed his priorities, and claimed he had “a good chance” to beat Senator John Thune.

A Yankton Democrat arrived in Mitchell on Tuesday seeking support for his bid for the U.S. Senate, and he believes he has “a good chance” to unseat his incumbent opponent.

and..

“Perhaps the biggest issue, the most important issue to all of us on this whole entire planet is our environment,” Williams said.

and..

But it’s not just the rich who would see a tax hike under Williams’ proposal. He said taxes may have to rise for the middle class, too, saying middle-class individuals don’t pay much in taxes now.

“People are willing to pay taxes. They just don’t feel right about them being the only ones paying taxes,” Williams said.

Read it all here.

So, 50 people were just gunned down in Florida, very possibly by a radical Islamic terrorist, and he wants to make everyone drive a prius, and – to top it all off, says we should pay more in taxes?

Good gosh. Can anyone say out-of-touch liberal whack-job?

Democrats – he’s you’re guy, and you can ride the Titanic all the way to the bottom if that’s your goal.

“A good chance” to unseat Thune. Maybe we should help with the editing on that.

“A good Not a snowball’s chance in hell” to unseat Thune.  Hmm… that has possibilities. “A good chance to become Batman and fight crime at night, as opposed to being remotely able” to unseat Thune.  A little long, but that would fit too.

“A good Utterly no chance” to unseat Thune.  Given his wack-a-doodle priorities, and his pledge to raise taxes on us all – that probably works the best in this instance.

From politico, the Senate has approved the latest defense bill with a twist – it finally adds women to the selective service registration requirement:

The Senate on Tuesday passed a sweeping defense policy bill that includes among its many Pentagon reforms a provision requiring women to register for the draft.
The Senate approved the National Defense Authorization Act 85-13, but some Republicans voted against it because it contained the requirement to register women with the Selective Service System. The proposal was not considered on the Senate floor, since it was included in the bill that emerged from the Armed Services Committee.

But the issue loomed large over the final vote. Heritage Action, the conservative advocacy arm of The Heritage Foundation, deemed the defense policy bill a “key vote” that would count on its annual lawmaker scorecards because of the draft language.

“It is a radical change that is attempting to be foisted on the American people,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said. “The idea that we should forcibly conscript young girls into combat, to my mind, makes little or no sense. It is at a minimum a radical proposition. I could not vote for a bill that did so, particularly that did so without public debate.”

In all, Republicans voted 48-6 on the bill, which authorizes $602 billion in defense spending for the new 2017 fiscal year. Democrats voted 37-7.

Read it all here.

In case you’re wondering who the No votes were…

NAYs —13
Crapo (R-ID) Cruz (R-TX) Gillibrand (D-NY) Leahy (D-VT) Lee (R-UT)	Markey (D-MA) Merkley (D-OR) Paul (R-KY) Reid (D-NV) Risch (R-ID)	Sasse (R-NE) Warren (D-MA) Wyden (D-OR)

Not Voting – 2
Boxer (D-CA)	Sanders (I-VT)

Ted Cruz got on his soapbox about “sending young girls off to war,” but I’m not sure anyone is really paying any attention to him at this point.  If we are truly for treating people equally, this was a no brainer. And, arguably, it was simply a vestigial remnant of a prior sexist attitude over women joining the military.

Israel, while having a shorter conscription time for women has included them in mandatory conscription. So why not the US?

What are your thoughts?

Given the nature of the two-vote elections in the House, trying to handicap the House races can be more problematic, but in taking the most base-level glimpse at the races (again, based on factors such as Name ID, district composition, how well they campaign), the GOP still looks incredibly strong in the house.

What could the problem areas be for Democrats? Everywhere except their safe districts (1, 15,  Julie Bartling & Spence Hawley’s seats, and assorted reservation counties).

Republicans have a few areas to keep an eye on. Watertown could be a sleeper for the Dems. With two new candidates, District 9 needs to have particular attention paid to it. District 16 will also be a trouble spot with Tornberg giving it another go.

District 22 might need attention from the party, and just like in the State Senate Race, District 25 will be a hotspot.

Hunt should be fine, but former Senator Ahlers versus newcomer Tom Pischke will be a fight, and deserving of extra efforts from the GOP. Tom has won his first contest, a primary, so don’t sell him short – he’s a strong competitor. Vigilance is the word of the day in this case.

Otherwise….

District	Race	Name	Party	Power Rating	Notes
District 01	State Representative	Steven D. McCleerey	DEM	Dem Over
District 01	State Representative	Susan Wismer	DEM	Dem Over
District 02	State Representative	John Graham	DEM		Graham against 2 incumbents. GOP should do well.
District 02	State Representative	Lana Greenfield	REP	Strong GOP
District 02	State Representative	Burt Tulson	REP	Strong GOP
District 03	State Representative	Nikki Bootz	DEM		Kaiser will win, and Dennert likely to as well. Dems not expected to run competent campaigns.
District 03	State Representative	Brooks Briscoe	DEM
District 03	State Representative	Drew Dennert	REP	Lean GOP
District 03	State Representative	Daniel Kaiser	REP	Strong GOP
District 04	State Representative	Matt Rosdahl	DEM		Mills and Kettwig are new, but Scheuelke has never been a good campaigner.
District 04	State Representative	Peggy Schuelke	DEM
District 04	State Representative	John Mills	REP	Lean GOP
District 04	State Representative	Jason W. Kettwig	REP	Lean GOP
District 05	State Representative	Michele Alvine	DEM		Alvine could prove to be trouble, but that would require Watertown to move back to Dem Territory.
District 05	State Representative	Alanna Silvis	DEM
District 05	State Representative	Charles “Chuck” Haan	IND
District 05	State Representative	Hugh M. Bartels	REP	Lean GOP
District 05	State Representative	Nancy York	REP	Lean GOP
District 06	State Representative	Clara Hart	DEM		Latterell and Otten will win. This is not a contest.
District 06	State Representative	Kyle Rogers	DEM
District 06	State Representative	Isaac Latterell	REP	Strong GOP
District 06	State Representative	Herman Otten	REP	Strong GOP
District 07	State Representative	Linda A. Brandt	DEM		Reed will win, and Hawley will win. It’s the Brookings way for the State’s biggest swing district.
District 07	State Representative	Spencer Hawley	DEM	Strong Dem
District 07	State Representative	Tim Reed	REP	Strong GOP
District 08	State Representative	Kory Rawstern	DEM		Incumbents should do fine, but calling it leaning because of the Heavy D vote in Moody Co.
District 08	State Representative	Jason Unger	DEM
District 08	State Representative	Leslie Heinemann	REP	Lean GOP
District 08	State Representative	Mathew Wollmann	REP	Lean GOP
District 09	State Representative	Mark G. Guthmiller	DEM		This is on the edge of being a toss-up district. Candidates will have good mentoring & support, but they’re going to need to work. It won’t be handed to them.
District 09	State Representative	Michael Saba	DEM
District 09	State Representative	Michael Clark	REP	Lean GOP
District 09	State Representative	Wayne H. Steinhauer	REP	Lean GOP
District 10	State Representative	Dean Kurtz	DEM		This District will remain strong GOP.
District 10	State Representative	Paul Vanderlinde	DEM
District 10	State Representative	Don Haggar	REP	Strong GOP
District 10	State Representative	Steven Haugaard	REP	Strong GOP
District 11	State Representative	Mary Claus	DEM		At this point in time, no reason to believe GOP won’t run strong.
District 11	State Representative	Paul Schipper	DEM
District 11	State Representative	Chris Karr	REP	Strong GOP
District 11	State Representative	Mark K Willadsen	REP	Strong GOP
District 12	State Representative	Bob Benson	DEM		Beal & Jamison. This race is practically over.
District 12	State Representative	Betsy Lang	DEM
District 12	State Representative	Arch Beal	REP	Strong GOP
District 12	State Representative	Greg Jamison	REP	Strong GOP
District 13	State Representative	P. James Eckhoff Jr	DEM		Mickelson & Westra will crush their opponents.
District 13	State Representative	Ellee Spawn	DEM
District 13	State Representative	G. Mark Mickelson	REP	Strong GOP
District 13	State Representative	Steve Westra	REP	Strong GOP
District 14	State Representative	Valerie Loudenback	DEM		LaPlante was a good substitution, but Holmes & Zikmund are good campaigners. Advantage GOP.
District 14	State Representative	Michael LaPlante	DEM
District 14	State Representative	Tom Holmes	REP	Strong GOP
District 14	State Representative	Larry P. Zikmund	REP	Strong GOP
District 15	State Representative	Jamie Smith	DEM		Soli is solid in this race, but this might be the year of the Indy in that District. Leggett has had a go around before, and ready to go this year. Not Myers, who is nutty & off-putting.
District 15	State Representative	Karen Soli	DEM	Lean Dem
District 15	State Representative	Eric Leggett	IND	Lean Indy1
District 15	State Representative	Mike Myers	IND
District 16	State Representative	Ted Curry	DEM		Anderson has name ID, but with Tornberg in the race, that puts significant State Dem resources behind this race. Could be Dem sleeper, but Jensen will be aggressive.
District 16	State Representative	Ann Tornberg	DEM	Possible Toss Up
District 16	State Representative	Kevin D. Jensen	REP	Lean GOP/Toss Up
District 16	State Representative	David L. Anderson	REP	Lean GOP
District 17	State Representative	Ray Ring	DEM	Lean Dem	The incumbents will be tough to beat.
District 17	State Representative	Mark Winegar	DEM
District 17	State Representative	Debbie Pease	REP
District 17	State Representative	Nancy Rasmussen	REP	Lean GOP
District 18	State Representative	David Allen	DEM		Hunhoff & Stevens will dominate the race.
District 18	State Representative	Peter Rossiter	DEM
District 18	State Representative	Jean M. Hunhoff	REP	Strong GOP
District 18	State Representative	Mike Stevens	REP	Strong GOP
District 19	State Representative	Ardon Wek	DEM		Is there a race? Peterson & Schoenfish already have this won.
District 19	State Representative	Kent S. Peterson	REP	Strong GOP
District 19	State Representative	Kyle Schoenfish	REP	Strong GOP
District 20	State Representative	Lance Carson	REP	GOP Over
District 20	State Representative	Tona Rozum	REP	GOP Over
District 21	State Representative	Juile Bartling	DEM	Strong Dem	Another one for each party here. Even the Republicans like Julie (possibly because she votes with them on many issues).
District 21	State Representative	Gary Burrus	DEM
District 21	State Representative	Lee Qualm	REP	Strong GOP
District 22	State Representative	Carmen Dannenbring	DEM	Toss Up	A pack of new candidates. This could be a wild ride.
District 22	State Representative	Joan Wollschlager	DEM	Toss Up
District 22	State Representative	Roger Chase	REP	Toss Up
District 22	State Representative	Bob Glanzer	REP	Toss Up
District 23	State Representative	John A. Lake	REP	GOP Over
District 23	State Representative	Spencer Gosch	REP	GOP Over
District 24	State Representative	Mary Duvall	REP	GOP Over
District 24	State Representative	Tim Rounds	REP	GOP Over
District 25	State Representative	David Haagenson	DEM		District 25 is going to be a toss-up just like the Senate. Hunt has strong name ID. Ahlers and Pischke are going to slug it out for 2nd place.
District 25	State Representative	Dan Ahlers	DEM	Toss Up
District 25	State Representative	Roger Hunt	REP	Strong GOP
District 25	State Representative	Tom Pischke	REP	Toss Up
District 26A	State Representative	Shawn Bordeaux	DEM	Dem Over
District 26B	State Representative	James Schaefer	REP	GOP Over
District 27	State Representative	Jim Bradford	DEM	Lean Dem	I have no idea how Liz May wins in that heavy Dem District, but she does. I’d give it to her and Bradford if I were to guess today.
District 27	State Representative	Red Dawn Foster	DEM
District 27	State Representative	Steve Livermont	REP
District 27	State Representative	Elizabeth May	REP	Lean GOP
District 28A	State Representative	Oren Lesmeister	DEM	Dem Over
District 28B	State Representative	Sam Marty	REP	GOP Over
District 29	State Representative	Thomas J. Brunner	REP	GOP Over
District 29	State Representative	Larry Rhoden	REP	GOP Over
District 30	State Representative	Sandy Arseneault	DEM		Dems are not elected in this District, but the county extension officer might give you a dollar for each tail you bring in. This race is over.
District 30	State Representative	Kristine Ina Winter	DEM
District 30	State Representative	Julie Frye-Mueller	REP	Strong GOP
District 30	State Representative	Tim R. Goodwin	REP	Strong GOP
District 31	State Representative	Timothy R. Johns	REP	GOP Over
District 31	State Representative	Charles M. Turbiville	REP	GOP Over
District 32	State Representative	Nik Aberle	DEM		This race is over.
District 32	State Representative	Susan Kelts	DEM
District 32	State Representative	Sean McPherson	REP	Strong GOP
District 32	State Representative	Kristin A. Conzet	REP	Strong GOP
District 33	State Representative	Jim Hadd	DEM		This race is over.
District 33	State Representative	Ethan Marsland	DEM
District 33	State Representative	Taffy Howard	REP	Strong GOP
District 33	State Representative	David Johnson	REP	Strong GOP
District 34	State Representative	Steve Stenson	DEM		This race is over.
District 34	State Representative	Dan Dryden	REP	Strong GOP
District 34	State Representative	Craig Tieszen	REP	Strong GOP
District 35	State Representative	Dave Freytag	DEM		This race is over.
District 35	State Representative	Michael T Hanson	DEM
District 35	State Representative	Blaine “Chip” Campbell	REP	Strong GOP
District 35	State Representative	Lynne DiSanto	REP	Strong GOP

(Note – if I left out any other Indy’s, which I think I may have, I’ll have them in the next list. -PP)

By my reckoning, I’ve got 56 of these seats going for the GOP,  9 Going Dem, 1 Indy, leaving 4 seats that could be tossups – 1 in District 16, 2 in 22, and 1 in District 25.

And that looks just fine for the SDGOP.

Many of them are no longer pertinent after losing the election, but on the Secretary of State’s website, as I was looking for some information, I came across this link, which was a great big information dump of every financial interest statement for all the candidates.

So, if you’re curious, or just a busybody….  (In alphabetical order)

2016 SD Candidate Financial Interest Statements

John Mills to Run for District 4 House

PIERRE, S.D. – The South Dakota Republican Party announced that John Mills of rural Volga has been chosen by the District 4 Republicans to be on the ballot for State House this November. Mills joins Milbank resident Jason Kettwig as the second of two GOP candidates running for District 4 House. He replaces Representative Fred Deutsch who withdrew his candidacy last month.

“I was born, educated, married and have raised a family here in South Dakota. It would be an honor to represent District 4 in the South Dakota House of Representatives and work to preserve our heritage and freedoms.” John Mills said. “Campaigning is new territory for me, but I do look forward to meeting people and discussing the issues that matter to the voters in District 4.”

Jim Gilkerson, Chairman of the Brookings County Republicans, said “John is a well known conservative voice, a successful business owner, and a community role model”. “He is a servant leader who will represent the people of District 4 tremendously in Pierre,” said Gilkerson.

In addition to owning his own business, Mills has served as a board member on the Brookings Chamber of Commerce, Supervisor on the Brookings County Conservation District, and served as an Elder at Peace Lutheran Church in Brookings. He and his wife, Joy, have two married children and five grandchildren.

###

It’s hard to come up with an introduction, because this mail piece is so utterly over the top. But, the Boz has bounced back and she’s babbling b.s.

“Please do not miss the fact that the medical board is governed by the Attorney General’s office.”

“Under the intimidation and pressure to conform, my campaign lawyer chose to align with the powerful establishment team.”

“Six months ago, Mr Westerhuis reportedly shot his three children, shot his wife, lit their home on fire and then shot himself after being haunted by the South Dakota government officials of DCI.”

Annette Bosworth 2016

Wow. 16 pages of the wildest fish story you’ll find this side of Lake Oahe. Nevermind that some things in the letter are utter fabrications, poor persecuted Annette wants to you send her $121,000.

If anyone is dumb enough to send them money at this point, they deserve to be parted from their hard earned money.

Now that we’re through the primary, and heading into the State Convention, I thought it would be a useful exercise to weed through some of the various State Senate races, and try to identify which ones could be problematic for the SDGOP….

And actually, at least as of today in the State Senate, I think it’s looking pretty good for the party of Abraham Lincoln as of June 16th:

D	Rep	Dem	Other	Power Rating	Notes
1		Frerichs		Dem Over
2	Greenfield			GOP Over
3	Novstrup	Heidelberger		Strong GOP	Longtime elected official v. Carpetbagger. See Corinna Robinson.
4	Wiik	Tyler		Lean GOP/Toss Up	Toss Up District w/2 who have faced election before. Tyler Comes with a lot of electoral baggage.
5	Tapio	Johnson		Strong GOP	Tapio’s race to lose.
6	Otten	Boese		Strong GOP	Incumbent v. unknwn
7	Tidemann	Perpich		Strong GOP	Long-time Incumbent v. unknwn
8	Youngberg	Parsley		Lean Dem	Youngberg challenging incumbent in tossup district, and is setting stage to run aggressively. Could be interesting.
9	Peters	Boltjes		Strong GOP	Peters v placeholder.
10	Haggar	Powers		Strong GOP	Incumbent v. unknwn
11	Stalzer	Cool		Strong GOP	Has Cool ever won a race, despite multiple attempts? Stalzer has.
12	Curd	Sanden		Strong/Lean GOP	Curd is incumbent, but Sanden will likely take some shots at him. As long as Curd runs, he should be safe.
13	Kolbeck	Pierson		Lean GOP	Denny Pierson has prior experience, but grasping at straws anymore. Kolbeck has a good team behind him.
14	Soholt		Swanger	Strong GOP	Tyler who? Swanger running as conservative indy in district w/out any GOP backing against Republican. Why bother?
15		Nesiba		Dem Over
16	Bolin	Skiles		Strong GOP	Bolin is a campaign machine. It’s over.
17	Rusch	Merrill		Lean GOP	Rusch is well respected, and the incumbent. Merrill has yet to make his case why to replace him.
18		Kennedy	Stone	Lean Dem/Toss Up	Stone ran good campaign 2 years ago, and no incumbent this time.
19	Nelson	Graef		Strong GOP	Graef was just arrested for DUI in one of most GOP districts in State. Unless Graef replaced on ballot, Nelson will win.
20	Klumb	Berg		Lean GOP	Klumb is from right area in District, but Berg is not inexperienced. Today, we call it for Klumb.
21		Sutton		Dem Over
22	White	Groth		Lean GOP	The power of incumbency should hand this to White.
23	Cronin			GOP Over
24	Monroe			GOP Over
25	Langer	Barth		Toss Up	Both candidates have visibility in district that has elected Democrats in the last decade. Langer is excellent candidate, but Barth isn’t inexperienced.
26		Heinert		Dem Over
27		Killer		Dem Over
28	Maher			GOP Over
29	Cammack		Kindler	Strong GOP	I can’t even tell you Kindler’s name. We can call this one over.
30	Russell	LaRive		Strong GOP	LaRive must have escaped the last Democrat Bounty Hunt in Fall River County. It’s over.
31	Ewing			GOP Over
32	Solano			GOP Over
33	Jensen	Stuck		Strong GOP	He survived being called a draft dodger in a conservative GOP Primary. Unless Jensen says something ill-advised (again), this race is his after winning the primary.
34	Partridge			GOP Over
35	Haverly			GOP Over

In case you’re wondering about my methodology, incumbency, party registration, and name ID all hold significant weight.  I also look at how good a campaigner the candidates are. Sioux Falls, being a little more urban than the rest of SD, tends to put things a little more up in the air. (Nothing personal, guys), so I’m more apt to say it leans GOP than it being strong GOP.

By my reckoning, Wiik/Tyler is going to be a hard fought race. But then again, John Wiik has never claimed Jesus is Pro-choice, and took a “revenge vote” against SDSU as Tyler has claimed she did.

Kennedy/Stone in Yankton should also be good. If Bernie had told people he was not running, this would be strong GOP for Stone. Now, Stone has to work harder because it’s Indy, but I’m sure he’ll have a little help from his friends in the GOP.

Langer/Barth is also going to be a knock down, drag out.  Langer is an outstanding candidate, but Barth is not unknown as well.

After that, the tough races drop off quickly. Al Novstrup should be able to dispatch carpetbagger Cory Heidelberger easily. I think District 8 with Youngberg/Parsley could be a dark horse race for the GOP, as Jordan is already out working, and represents a fresh young face for the GOP in the District.

But, all of this can change on a dime, and with the winds, and November is a long way away.

Agree? Disagree? Discuss, and let me know what you think. By my readings, it looks to be a pretty strong GOP Year in the State Senate

In case you were wondering where Mike “professor push-ups” Myers was lately, his flyer for the State House has appeared in Sioux Falls, where a correspondent was kind enough to send to me.

Yep. It’s that awful. It has the name, but forgets the office, printed on someone’s copier.

Nevermind that this law professor ignores the statutory requirements of a disclaimer.

And on the backside, why the picture of McGovern with him from 30-40 years ago?  Is that supposed to remind us of how old he is, or does it serve a bigger purpose?

This past week, former Secretary of Tribal Relations,  JR LaPlante, who left that job to take a position as the Assistant US Attorney in 2014, and who is now Director of Tribal Relations for Avera Rural Health Institute has the honor of apparently being the first placeholder replacement for Democrats in 2016.

The former Cabinet level secretary under Governor Daugaard is replacing Tom Pier on the Democrat ballot in District 14, where Larry Zikmund and Tom Holmes currently serve in the State Legislature.

I just wanted to take a moment to thank our advertisers, Richard Mounce and Roger Solum who were with us for the past month for their patronage, and to make note that the SDWC has advertising space available.

And if it needs to be mentioned, I’d encourage you to visit our long list of advertisers, and check out their websites, such as United States Senator John Thune, Americans for Prosperity SD Chapter, Congresswoman Kristi Noem,the fine barristers at Redstone Law Firm, Vote Yes on S – Marsy’s Law, the Foundation for Government Accountability, as well as my own Dakota Campaign Store, one of the State’s largest suppliers of campaign materials.

Also, I just got the good news that it looks like we will already be adding a new advertiser who will be joining shortly. And if you’re thinking of helping to put an advertising message in front of our State’s opinion leaders and decision makers, we still have plenty of room in the left hand column and on the right.

Advertising on the Dakotwarcollege.com website is based on a first come, first serve basis for the available positions.  Advertising slots on the right are 300 px wide up to 300 px tall, and may be either static image, animated .gif, or flash file, as long as the file size is within acceptable file parameters, does not impede the loading of the website, or interfere with existing code.  All ads run through-site, and are not rotated in their positions.

Information on ad prices, ad positions, and required ad commitments may be directed to the webmaster by clicking here.

And while I’m on the subject, for all you newly minted candidates who may be looking for parade materials such as stickers, banners, car magnets, and the like, Dakota Campaign Store is open for business, and available to serve the campaign material needs of Republican and non-partisan campaigns.

Thanks for your patronage!