Down to the wire State Senate Predictions. Dem’s take a hard hit, after an abysmal campaign effort.

Pat Powers

It’s time for more armchair quarterbacking in the 2016 elections, as we take a shot at predicting the State Senate races from the hundred mile view. The big story in the Senate will be the hit that Democrats take in the campaign, as there’s practically no good news for them, and the potential for an even more historic low number of their group in the upper chamber.

D

Rep

Dem

Other

Predictions

Notes

1

 

Frerichs

 

Dem Over

 

2

Greenfield

 

 

GOP Over

 

3

Novstrup

Heidelberger

 

GOP

People don’t elect people who want to raise their taxes. 

4

Wiik

Tyler

 

GOP

Tyler didn’t run 1/2 the race she had 2 years ago, and Wiik was prepared for a tough race he didn’t get. 

5

Tapio

 

GOP Over

6

Otten

Boese

 

GOP

Incumbent v. unknwn

7

Tidemann

Perpich

 

GOP

Tidemann was prepared, and Perpich did nothing, and will be rewarded accordingly. 

8

Youngberg

Parsley

 

GOP

The word on the street is that Youngberg has this won. 

9

Peters

 Koch

 

GOP

Replacement candidate who never took off. 

10

Haggar

Powers

 

GOP

Challenger made effort, but Haggar should pull through fine. 

11

Stalzer

Cool

 

GOP

Cool never got hot. 

12

Curd

Sanden

 

GOP

Curd is fine

13

Kolbeck

Pierson

 

GOP

Denny Pierson grasped at straws, but his days are long gone by. 

14

Soholt

 

Swanger

GOP

Swanger made effort, but Soholt knows how to campaign, and did so. 

15

 

Nesiba

 

Dem Over

 

16

Bolin

Skiles

 

GOP

Bolin is a campaign
machine. It’s over.

17

Rusch

Merrill

 

GOP

Rusch is well respected, and the incumbent. Merrill never gave a reason to replace him

18

 

Kennedy

Dem Over

19

Nelson

Graef

 

GOP

One of most GOP districts in state

20

Klumb

Berg

 

GOP

Berg made a few of us nervous early, but he was never more than a placeholder this time.

21

 

Sutton

 

Dem Over

 

22

White

Bliss

 

GOP

Is it a rule that Dem replacements are all mediocre?

23

Cronin

 

 

GOP Over

 

24

Monroe

 

 

GOP Over

 

25

Langer

Barth

 

Toss Up/Lead GOP

The only toss-up left. But, GOP has heavy voter advantage. Word is Barth isn’t confident.

26

 

Heinert

 

Dem Over

 

27

 

Killer

 

Dem Over

 

28

Maher

 

 

GOP Over

 

29

Cammack

 

Kindler

GOP

over.

30

Russell

LaRive

 

GOP

LaRive must have escaped the last Democrat Bounty Hunt in Fall River
County. It’s over.

31

Ewing

 

 

GOP Over

 

32

Solano

Hubbard

 

GOP

Solano has turned out to be a good competitor. Hubbard never had a chance.

33

Jensen

Stuck

 

GOP

Phil for the win. 

34

Partridge

 Schultz

 

GOP

Over

35

Haverly

 

 

GOP Over

 

I’m going to optimistically predict that the Senate is going to come down to a 29-6 split, with Senate Dems consisting of Frerichs, Nesiba, Sutton, Heinert, Killer and Kennedy, dropping their numbers two as they lose seats they held centered around Madison/Flandreau and Milbank.

Admittedly, even if they can keep what they held in the 2015-2016 session, that’s only 8, which consigns them to near irrelevancy. That might be optimistic, but it’s the best they could possibly hope for, because the numbers are not in their favor.

Why is the outlook so bleak for South Dakota Democrats? First off, the South Dakota Democrat party has managed to coordinate the absolute worst effort for their legislative candidates that I think I’ve seen in nearly 30 years. It’s as if they absolutely abdicated their role as a political party, discarding it for – and it’s a familiar fault – concentrating on ballot issues. They put time and money into those issues while their efforts at candidate recruitment and funding floundered miserably.

As we come to the end of the 2016 election cycle, it’s all to evident that Ann Tornberg and Suzanne Jones Pranger have managed to take a vehicle already driven into the mud and encapsulated it even further in mediocrity. (So it is even more hopelessly stuck).  And that bodes poorly for Democrats as they get manicures in preparation of their biennial ritual of pointing fingers and blaming everything but the root cause of their failure – the inability to conduct themselves as a political party, find candidates for office, and help them to run competent campaigns.

As the first hints of dawn are approaching for 2018, when they need to start the whole thing over again in a campaign season where many statewide offices are going to be up for grabs, botching this election was a grevious error. And one that just put them that much farther back on having people queued up on the bench ready to join the big leagues.

20 thoughts on “Down to the wire State Senate Predictions. Dem’s take a hard hit, after an abysmal campaign effort.”

  2. What I hear is that the race to President Pro Tempore will be determined by the election results.

    If Cammack wins then Medicaid Expansion is on the table because it will get out of a committee.

    If Greenfield wins then it’s game over for Medicaid expansion because it will die in a committee.

    Big elections going on with big consequences.

    1. I hear Stace wants nothing to do with Greenfield as President pro. That will hurt Greenfield and possibly keep him from winning.

      1. and will isolate Stace from the conservative base FOREVER

        Stace would truly be a party of one and a complete hypocrite supporting Cammack over Greenfield

    1. Not surprised two liberals are working for Medicaid expansion. Because the federal has such a great history of honoring their commitments . Some real republicans need to take them on. My money is their.

  4. I keep wondering when the SDDP will find their next George McGovern. They need someone because one sided elections are not good for the state. (and it also isn’t fun to watch or read about either)

    With Pennington County having more I’s than D’s it is not a good trend for the minority party. Not good at all and someone smart needs to figure out how to lead them back to prominence. 12 years ago all three federal officers were Dems.

  5. 9 races where Dems didn’t even field a candidate…hard to be competitive when you give away so many seats.

  6. I won’t be too sure about Phil, some pretty nasty mailers are hitting voters mailboxes.

    2. Phil is resilient and will win handily as will many others…

      GOP has an 80K voter registration advantage on Dems for a reason in this state.

  7. I think there may be three other potential democrats, I think 9 is their over and 6 is their under. Very sad for a two party system. You need to recruit good candidates to win elections, look at Madison with Wollman winning and now the senate seat likely to go GOP

  10. The SDDP has become an isolated band talking only among themself and the then wonder why the people think they are disconnected to the people.

    1. It is like a cult following living in their own mind altered fantasy world with their leader the candidate that has a spotty employment history yet is ready if elected to introduce bills that will negatively affect businesses, property owners and tax payers..

  11. Let’s say you’re right on the 29-6 split. How many votes does that give the liberals on social issues like abortion and the bathroom bill? I count Tideman, Soholt and Peters among the social libs, making it a 26-9 split. Any others?

  12. CAH does not like reading that all Brown County Democrats did not vote for him. He dismisses and claims we are not eligible voters but in an email he tells me he will be my next state Senator. Overconfidence?

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