Today’s headline at Argusleader.com is blaring “Hawks says she can beat Noem.”
Yes, please try not to laugh. We probably can place that notion right along other flights of fancy such as bigfoot, unicorns, and alien abduction. Yes, there are people who believe in those too. But any proof remains to be seen.
Her bid is one seen by many as a long shot in a state where all 13 statewide offices are held by Republicans. But Hawks said despite South Dakota’s overwhelming Republican majority and her current lack of campaign dollars, she believes she can beat incumbent U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem, R-South Dakota, next November.
“I won my legislative race the last two sessions, I won my legislative race in 2012 in a Republican district. I won my second race in a Republican district with an extremely low Democratic turn out,” Hawks said. “I was elected by Republicans in my district.”
Yes, she did win her legislative race in the last 2 elections (not sessions). In 2012, she won by 82 votes. In 2014, she won by 8 votes. Not exactly trending as a strong contender. She’s trending by the skin of her teeth. And let’s not forget this little minor factoid:
But Noem, now in her third term will be challenging to beat at the ballot box. The Republican won in 61 of 66 counties in 2014. And her campaign spokesman, Justin Brasell, said Noem currently has $1.2 million on hand. Noem hasn’t started worrying about next November just yet, Brasell said.
At best, Hawks is down by $1.195 million in fundraising, assuming she’s put 5k of her own cash into it.
Considering she’s one of the state’s only 2 or three Democrats who will admit they’re in favor of a state income tax, AND she’s openly supporting Planned Parenthood, despite the fact that it looks like they’re chopping up and selling aborted fetuses… … I’d just reiterate that any hope of her winning resides in the realm of imagination with bigfoot and unicorns.
Where any such ridiculous notions of her winning statewide election against Congresswoman Kristi Noem belong.
I thought you said Trump was done, too. This political environment is very tricky for incumbents. Remember what happened to invincible Majority Leader Eric Cantor last year. Keep funding Obama’s immigration, planned parenthood and we’ll see just how many unicorns become regular horse races next year.
Eh – Cantor was primaried.
But – there’s probably some worthy comparison, NOEM is probably perceived to be as strong as Cantor was, but probably in reality weaker given the glaring lack of legislative accomplishments.
Hawks probably stacks up pretty well as a teacher, but certainly lacks the funding @ this point necessary to challenge Noem.
If you dont fix immigration the Dems will control the white house for the next four years,Plus with Bushes legacy and two very poor presidential canidates you ran what is to be expected.
Bigfoot isn’t real? Then who is that on those “Jack Links Jerky” ads? Chewbacca?
The thing most likely to ignite a Hawks candidacy is contempt by the Noem campaign. Noem shouldn’t react, much less overreact; the key is to keep one’s eyes and ears open to the voters and the media while working with the successful formula.
Hawks is definitely a potential threat to Noem’s re-election. If you are a Democrat in South Dakota and can win, whether it be by 8 votes or 80,000, you are relevant.
McGovern in ’62 versus ’68, Daschle in ’78 versus ’80, or Johnson in ’02 versus ’08 are all proof of that.
As far as fundraising, well Hawks needs far more cash, but I think the national Democrats overtime will take care of that. If the Dems want to take over the US House once again, they need to win seats like the At-large seat in SD, and Hawks is a viable and attractive candidate for such majority ambitions.
However, Republicans in SD need to hope that the Dems do not run someone against Thune in 2016. Because if they fail to run someone against Thune, then Thune can work full-time to save Noem, but if Thune has a challenger, than Noem will be on her own and potentially vulnerable.
And as far as unicorns, I do not know much about them, but for alien abductions, well, I will demur to a former president about that one:
I’ve heard Noem might get a primary challenge. That would help hawks some.
No way Hawks wins but a little ego is good to have for a candidate.
Hawks needs to energize the dem base without alienating soft R’s and I’s.
43% would be a moral victory for hawks.
Primary challenger? Hubbel? Wait she’s not still a Republican anymore is she?
Like I said weeks before, this thing is over before it even started. Quote me.
i’ll believe a primary challenge when people stop saying it and start doing it. yeah right. regarding hawks, she can take her seat soon enough next to the others in both parties who tried and failed.
mom always said there will always be those that like to stir the pot. primary challenger to kristi aint gonna happen
Are you two brothers/twins?
no. enquirer2 is a pale shadow puppet dancing in the glow of my starlike fire.
lol Sibling rivalry. That’s funny! 🙂
Well certainly from Mickelson, Jackley, and (dare I say) Michaels’ perspective, it is entirely in their best interest to recruit a candidate to beat up on Noem from the right and challenge her conservative credentials in the primary, if for nothing else than for Republican voters to have a reference point in their minds to refer back to when they battle it out in the 2018 gubernatorial primary.
It would be foolish for forward(2018)-thinking Republican operatives/future-candidates to pass up on this opportunity to have their own pit-bull taking shots at Noem a full two years out that cannot be traced back to you two years later.
They certainly can’t rely on Hawks to give Noem much of a challenge, let alone rely on her challenging Noem’s conservative credentials.
And there certainly have to be candidates out there willing to enter the primary if given the confidence of some institutional and/or financial support.
Noem certainly hasn’t done enough on Veteran’s issues, perhaps Jason Rauvnsvborg would be willing to be that candidate? He was willing to enter the race against an unbelievably well-liked and well-funded Rounds.
Larry Rhoden wasn’t afraid to enter the 2014 Senate primary either – and he put together a very respectable campaign with notable clever ads and a well-orchestrated launch event last election cycle. Not sure what his specific angle could be, but he could be a formidable challenger if one of those 2018 thinking folks were to tap him.
Stace Nelson probably wouldn’t do anything at the behest of any of those 2018 thinking folks, but he’s always a wildcard. With him it seems you never know.
Do any of those folks have what it takes to take down Noem in Cantor-esque style in a primary? Nah, probably not. But while Hawks may stack up well against Noem, her biggest threat is probably on the right, and probably someone that I haven’t even mentioned above.
Even if no one could give her a knock-out blow in the primary, it would seem to be a very worthy investment for any of those thinking of challenging Noem for the governorship in 2018 to make sure Noem has a worthy primary challenger in this 2016 election cycle. Free time to go negative without having to have that negativity in any way attached to your own 2018 campaign.
We’ll see if any of those candidates and their operatives think similarly.