From KELO Radio, a new poll was announced that shows Republican Gubernatorial contenders Marty Jackley & Kristi Noem competing within the poll’s margin of error:
The poll by Moore Information has Noem at 40 percent; Jackley at 35 percent; former legislator Lora Hubbel at 5 percent, and Dr. Terry La Fleur at 2 percent.
18 percent are undecided.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus of 6 percent and polled 300 likely Republican voters.
I don’t believe this poll. I don’t know anyone supporting Noem. It’s really hard to find her supporters.
10:09 – So…because you don’t know anyone supporting Noem that’s evidence supporters don’t exist? Nice.
I have a feeling you’re not really interested in finding Noem supporters. Visit her FB page, plenty of people support her. Or are those accounts Russian bots? Would donations to her campaign convince you many people want her to be our next governor? Russian bots again? Maybe you’re a supporter trying to get feedback, that happens a lot here too.
Yes. Donations would convince me but most of her donations are from out of state special interests.
Jackley seems to have more support in SD from individuals.
Noem’s support mostly came in a $1.6 million transfer of federal funds.
The polling results:
SD Governor’s Race – GOP Primary
40% Kristi Noem
35% Marty Jackley
5% Lora Hubbel
2% Terry La Fleur
18% Don’t know/none
How is Congress Doing?
65% Disapprove
32% Approve
3% Don’t know
Looks like Marty has to do a better job of tying her to Congress.
Marty has guts. I think most people thought Kristi would walk away with this thing and he’s in the margin of error. HOLY CRAP! She is in trouble if this is legit.
Kristi has run 4 statewide races and 5 if you count her primary.
Marty has only run against Volesky and Haber in elections.
Everyone and their dog knows who Kristi Noem is.
Jackley is in a great position. He just needs to get his personal story out there more.
After tax reform passed, I figured Kristi would run away with this race, but it looks like this is going to be a nail biter. I bet Kristi ends up going negative to slow Marty down.
That very well could be the case. WOW! Marty is doing awesome!
As a faux Miss Cleo, I predict Noem by a big margin. She will carry the I-29 Corridor and the Black Hills..
A great battle is heating up. Marty is scrappy, aggressive and competitive and can imagine what he was like as a competitor running Cross Country. Kristi has name recognition from being in Congress and has the financial resources and organization. Both are well liked within the party. This will be great to see how it all plays out in the primary.
Jackley has been telling me for months that’s he’s ahead in the polls. Apparently he was lying. This is a big setback for Jackley
Noem should be up 20%. She was arrogant and it is costing her big time! She is in for the race of her life!
CJ Abernathy the single issue candidate for Governor. Curious how he is doing.
I am curious about who that is.
Eh! just a handful of people know he is even running.
Good point Viz.
The political class in Pierre said this race was over and Jackley would win easy.
OOPS!
Maybe we can finally drain the Pierre RINO swamp
Whenever I think of scrappy and tough, I tend to not think of cross country runners.
hahah! Cross Country runners can inflict pain and break the will of another runner by keeping up a pace or accelerating. The other runner gives up or falls back.
Whenever I think about qualifications for governing a state, one’s athletic prowess from 30 years ago is pretty low on the list.
Ike come on! It is the life lessons learned early on. 🙂
If that’s the case, all I need to know was how successful he was at trick-or-treating. 😛
hahahaa
The margin of error puts Lora at -1. Checks out.
Can Lora and Tara run as Independents in the General election if they lose the Republican Primary?
IF?
Beat me to it.
Who are they polling?
No doubt she is stronger in Kelo country but not west river.
72% polled believe we need a convention of states to propose new constitutional amendments.
That says a lot about the kind of people asked.
Wherever you are in the world, you’re in KELOLand.
Marty also told me he was ahead the polls. Not sure what polls he was referring to
At least now we might get some polls. This governors race has been so quiet.
Once this race heats up we will forget there is a congressional race. Krebs will win that. Two dudes guarantee it.
To me this race will come down to two things.
Who defines themselves best and who defines their opponent best.
For my money Kristi’s monopoly game video where she talks about our nations debt and bookers share of it is the deal breaker for me. The debt per person has only gone up since she went to congress and we still have Obamacare.
Debt just keeps going up and up and up with her in congress…
And crime is going up significantly under jackley… look at the recent headlines
Jackley is doing a great job and wish he would stay on as AG.
Jason has carried a lot of water for the Elephant. A lot of water! Qualifications don’t matter.
That is because of Daugaard.
11:27 – That’s his fault? Interesting. He encourages drug dealers to come to our state? Oh, oh, I know… he hands out permission slips so people robbing and killing others can continue. Got it. Great insight..
Her polling numbers keep going up and up too. Remember Jackley’s ridiculous state fair polling numbers that his campaign was so proud of?? The state fair poll had it Marty 57.9 and Kristi at 40.7. It appears that somehow Marty has dropped 22%.
I’m curious if the margin of error increases due to lack of home phones. They are only polling people with a home phone – which is significantly less than ever before. So the average age of the people polled has to be higher – generally over 50 years. Polls for the last 10 years have been significantly skewed and wrong. You can’t poll like you did in 1960 to 2000 – there has to be a new method of polling developed.
Keep it somewhat on topic, please.
even PPP leaves clear statements about their methodology and results with links to detailed information. would have appreciated that in this case.
Kristi! Kristi! Actually means Billie! Billie!
Oh, and wait until the GEAR-UP trial lays an egg, that should help Kristi too.
Kristi is winning and has barely started campaigning. She will gradually increase her lead in the next few months.
I doubt that she will win but it does show you that Johnson and Jackley’s hard push of grassroots show up to everything and work your butt off for 2 years does not show results in th polling.
Kristi hasn’t done hardly anything and Jackley has been everywhere.
The GOTV is overrated. Parades, fairs. It’s all pointless. TV is where people vote.
well I see the campaign staffers from both sides are out already. I’ve said it before — both candidates are excellent. I like them both personally and there was a time I envisioned them running together. Obviously circumstances change. Now that they are running against each other the biases come out along with the knives. They will both run great campaigns and beautiful ads. And in just over three months, I believe we’ll see a very close finish to this race. Meanwhile, the polls will ebb & flow — that’s how these things work.
Something is off.
“The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus of 6 percent and polled 300 likely Republican voters.”
That is too big an MOE for a poll of 300 likely voters. I give this poll zero cridibility without seeing at least methodology information.
Marty would be a great LG for Noem. He’s not ready for guv yet.
Troy, I didn’t think 6% off was all that off for a 300 sample. Most polls are 400 with a smaller MOE. But it was probably done inexpensively ~ driven by the client. Moore has been around a long time though.
https://www.isixsigma.com/tools-templates/sampling-data/margin-error-and-confidence-levels-made-simple/
See above ~ the Margin of Error is standard for this sample size.
Yes, and note the pesky issue of the confidence level. Margin of error doesn’t mean anything without knowing the confidence level, but no one reports the confidence interval. For example, moving the confidence interval down from 95% to 90% can seriously affect the reliability of polling results.
For these polls, it’s easily assumed that the Moore Information poll is more accurate than the SD State Fair poll or any other survey where no conscious effort to validate and balance the polling sample to reflect the electorate at large (think audience response polling like that done on Facebook or web sites.)
Even so, the Moore Information’s devil is in the details of the methodology used, especially as it relates to basic demographics and how likelihood of voting is determined.
Lots of MJ folks on here throwing shade on methodology because he’s losing. Funny.
Anono, you are correct. It seemed large and jumped off the page at me. I should have done a quick search before talking.
Michael is right confidence level is also a factor but I think he overstates it by missing probably a larger factor is knowing the quality of the poll questions and methodology for confirming they were actually Republican voters.
In the end, it is in a range I expected with one exception: it appears there may be a smaller % of undecideds than I expected. But again, it goes back to the poll on whether they pushed undecideds to decide.
It is fun to speculate polls against what we see or don’t see on the ground colored by our bias. But in open primaries with two big horses, it is still really early.