I was revisiting a post I did from 2019 on how the upcoming elections were shaping up in terms of activity.
I had 2020 pegged as a time of calm & peace… with little change in the status quo. The South Dakota political status quo has remained static in terms of people. But, then we had the pot vote, and a contentious national election. Anymore, I would describe our society as anything but calm, because of COVID. What else has changed in my desktop Nostradamus political predictions from May of 2019?
I had predicted that 2022 shall “remain a quiet time, with great leaders remaining well defended from invaders.” The post-election update? Well.. sort of.
Senator John Thune: With the presidential election widely viewed as going towards Biden subject to an intense recount battle right now, I view Senator John Thune’s profile as being higher than ever, having been just re-elected as Majority Whip.
A higher profile could bring more people who might think they can knock him off the mountain, with very deep pockets wanting to turn South Dakota from a sleepy state into a battleground. But in South Dakota, Thune is the mountain, and his bedrock runs through the GOP. His people are who step in when people get nervous about elections. Deep pockets might try, but they’d better be ready for a hard, hard fight with some of the best.
Congressman Dusty Johnson: Unless Democrats pour money into the state, I think Dusty will remain low on their radar. Johnson boasts a crack team of organized staffers and volunteers who chose to be active for Legislative Candidates instead of sitting around or dispersing for a nothing election, so they’ll be ready to roll. If Dems can dig up a higher profile candidate than the usual bargain-bin challengers whose only resume item is losing a prior race, Thune’s top-notch team will team up with Dusty’s top-notch team, and they’ll be ready.
Governor Kristi Noem: The Governor has this uncanny knack for when she’s first elected, people underestimate her, thinking they can strike her down … and like Obi-Wan Kenobi, she comes back more powerful than before.
They tried it when she was first elected to Congress, and she came back stronger than ever with the Farm Bill. They again tried it when she was elected to Governor.. poking at her on hemp legalization and meth education. But her firm governance during COVID has raised her profile and given her an increased ability to raise money nationally.
Who was that who ran against her and was going to give it another run? Billie something or another? Yesterday’s cowboy hat.
Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg: What was a very safe seat last summer in the blink of an eye turned into one which is unsettled and will likely be challenged as a consequence of the tragic accident by Highmore that is still under investigation. What’s unclear is whether that comes from Randy Seiler, who now heads the Democrat Party, or from a new opponent.
Commissioner of School & Public Lands: School & Lands is the only contest with the incumbent (Ryan Brunner) termed out when other state offices are being prepared for re-election. Former State Senator Jordan Youngberg is said to be on the hunt for the job, as well as Deputy School and Lands Commissioner Mike Lauritsen. Both have their bases of support in the party, with Youngberg having connections as an elected official, and Lauritsen having on-the-job experience, as well as his connections in the GOP. And that’s not to say that there won’t be others wanting the job between now and when nominees are chosen at the State Party Convention in 2022.
Auditor, Treasurer & PUC fill out the rest of the 2022 dance card. Don’t expect those to change. Sattgast, Haeder and Nelson are steady and popular with South Dakotans.
The South Dakota Legislature: I hadn’t mentioned this in my previous look forward, but here’s what to watch for.
Redistricting is one factor, but there are a pile of legislators termed out in 2022. In the Senate, Cammack, Curd, Brock Greenfield, & Rusch are gone from the Republican side, and a constant presence for the Dems, Troy Heinert is done. And I don’t know if any will come back in the other chamber. The House loses even more. The GOP loses David Anderson, Arch Beal, Lana Greenfield, Steve Haugaard, Sam Marty, Kent Peterson, and Mark Willadsen. Dems lose Shawn Bordeaux.
Factor in redistricting and the other challenge that Republicans will face is that there’s too many to avoid people running against each other. Democrats whine and wheedle about utterly bogus claims of “gerrymandering,” but the truth is Republicans lose seats after redistricting, because in many cases, things are reset, and people don’t know who their elected officials are.
Was I predicting in 2019 that 2022 would be a time of calm & peace?
The only thing that’s predictable is that politics are unpredictable.
Alex Jones and InfoWars laid-out in detail, blow for blow, everything that is happening with our electoral process right now. I’ll keep my finger on the pulse of InfoWars and keep reporting relevant information coming from InfoWars. For those of you who can’t take the gruff presentation of Alex and his crew, I have softer, more refined summarizations of tomorrow’s news today at PlainsTribune.com
What happens in 2022, to some extent, relies upon what happens in the next 8 days (or less).
For the good of the country, Biden should concede.
While InfoWars is entertaining, I have found Alex Jones to have been inaccurate too many times. I do agree with your sentiment on Biden.
And this right here encapsulates everything wrong with the current GOP.
Brunner has been the best Public Lands Commissioner we have ever had. EVER.
What is Brunner going to do next?
The state needs a Pot and Hemp czar.
Kristi is lining up a staff from DC – even posting job openings in DC listservs. Her press secretary is from DC as well as a few more staffers. She’s not hiring South Dakotans anymore. And, Corey Lewandowski as an advisor, got her to fire long time South Dakota political insider and her Chief of Staff, Josh Shields.
She’s not worried about the next governor’s race, she’s looking for a national campaign. That’s why she’s “campaigning” for Trump while lining her own campaign warchest. She won’t take on Thune, but my money is a run for the White House. She was even quoted as saying as much in Ohio from staffers at the event.
Good for her. She has a serious chance at becoming the first woman president. I guess, that depends on if election fraud is stopped: dead people voting, people voting more than once, illegals voting, computer “glitches”, back dating ballots, etc….
She put herself on the map when she went to the Constitution for guidance when deciding whether to shut down the state or let the people decide what to do after being informed. Imagine, the first woman president from South Dakota!
It will never happen. She stands no chance against someone like Senator Rick Scott or Marco Rubio of Florida, or Ted Cruz of Florida. She doesn’t have the fundraising capabilities here, or the networks/grounds games in the early primary states. Her proximity to Iowa is hugely beneficial, however her newfound popularity hasn’t gained her any goodwill outside of the Trump circle, which may be disappearing soon. And if Trump runs again in 2024, she’d likely get VP at best.
Don’t forget, she also turned down Trump, his first pick to be Secretary of Agriculture, to be Governor. She lost a huge platform and networking capabilities.
The lowly VP spot. Boohoo.
How certain is it that Thune runs again? I think it is probably closer to 50/50 than 100% certain. With McConnell and Cornyn both recently reelected, his path to ever being Majority Leader is very narrow and he could only be Whip for the first 2 years of his next term. I think he runs, but I also won’t be shocked if he doesn’t.
To reiterate, I think he runs, but if he doesn’t, the prognosticating over the dominoes of that decision will be fascinating. Dusty to the Senate? Who runs for the House seat? Fun speculation for political junkies.
On redistricting, the key question is how many seats are added to the Sioux Falls area? Is there still only 1 safe Dem district after it’s all done or are there more competitive seats?
Thune has been 50/50 for at least a half dozen years on reelection. I’ll believe he doesn’t run when he steps aside. Until then he is 100% committed to keeping the GOP in control of the Senate.
If Thune doesn’t run I’d imagine a Dusty Johnson would be a strong fit in the US Senate. I’d like to see him focus on DC. We are fine in SD. We need strong, articulate and passionate voices in DC.
Dusty is on track to be a US Senator.
Agreed, although I think Dusty has a desire to be Governor. Similar to Noem, the allure of being in the big chair vs 1 of 435 is tough to overcome and I can’t really blame them.
At some point, we’ll need someone else to gain some seniority in DC to have some authority, similar to Thune.
first of all, Cornyn wasn’t re-elected to anything other than his Senate seat.
Cornyn is claiming to be the next Majority Leader, should something unforeseen happen to McConnell. Thune would need to start throwing some elbows and build up a massive warchest, north of $50 million and start dolling it out to GOP Senators and the NRSC overall. Cornyn has a much larger funding base in Texas than Thune does in South Dakota. But again, he needs to start making moves and push Cornyn to the edges. But no one in Thune-world is that confrontational, I guess that is what happens when you’re managed from the state, rathern than from DC. McConnell has all but dubbed Cornyn to be the heir apparent at this point.
He needs to have a funding hall if he’s even going to stand a chance. Don’t forget, Cornyn leapfrogged Thune in leadership due to his massive fundraising for candidates and the party.
My point about Cornyn being reelected was about being guaranteed to be in the Senate for 6 more years. I agree he is the likely McConnell heir, which is why I don’t think it’s guaranteed Thune runs again. Once he’s termed out as Whip in 2024, he’d be out of leadership.
By the way, I don’t view not being overly confrontational as a negative. Aggressive, DC tactics wouldn’t go over well in SD. If it means not being Leader, so be it
You can be aggressive and throw some elbows in DC while being “midwest nice” in the state.
Thune would be better.
Dusty needs to be in the US Senate.
Lauritsen would be good for school lands. He’s helped run a good office.
Having worked for a South Dakota senator – Dusty isn’t a “senator” yet. Yes, he’s likeable, ambitious, and seems like a hardworker, but he’s more of the quirky guy than a statesman.
But what has he accomplished so far? I’ve read his press releases and his weekly posts. But a majority of his legislative “victories” are major bills that he’s gotten provisions included. He, to my knowledge, hasn’t gotten a major win or bill signed into law yet. He’s slow on getting cosponsors, which is a staffing issues, and hasn’t had a ton of bills moving out of committee – 2 out of 27 total.
I think people need to slow down on thinking Thune is going anywhere. I think Dusty would be a fantastic governor… but Senator… not yet.
Dusty would make an amazing Senator. Done deal.
Here’s the thing. We have 100 people who would make a great governor.
Dusty is one of 2 or 3 who would make a great senator (Jackley, Noem). He can also win in a tough federal race.
The upside of Cornyn as the majority leader would focus on keeping texas red.
Thune would be good also but their is a benefit of coming from a huge state.
Rubio would also be good.
PP’s 2022 analysis is excellent, as always.
I believe it is time for the good Senator Thune to retire. He has been in in D.C. for too long and become what who he replaced. It has been interesting to see him write an article telling us about making big Tech accountable, but then nothing is done. Some of his legislation includes getting rid of those annoying robo calls. So far, I have not seen any decrease in them. Hopefully President Trump pulls the rabbit out of the hat and is President for another four years. If so, he needs people who actually support him and not the establishment GOP. The establishment GOP needs to go.
I’d like to see Thune or Rounds run for governor in the future. Strong leaders.
Rounds is much more likely to run for Governor again than Thune is. Rounds has already spoken with his staff that this would likely be his last election.
maybe you need to go ?
You apparently support the establishment GOP. I am not a member of the Republican Party. They are pretty much Democrat lite. If the GOP chooses to go the way it is, it will go the way of the Whig party. You just go ahead and go for the ride with them.
no hat-rabbit will fling trump back in for four more years. the mess that is this election count will make it impossible to discern any different result than we have. meanwhile i will have much more success wishing i had a dime for every sad sack blocked out of power, who wrongly calls the republicans ‘democrat light.’ the last four years showed stark differences between the parties; the last 16 truth be told and i can only be amazed at how wrong you are about the gop. the real problem is a recurrent lack of courage and urgency. that can be fixed.
i still think rounds would make a good president. never happen but that’s our loss.
Thune has grown gills, due to being embedded in the swamp for so long.
Why no mention of Sec of State?
Oh! Because I missed that one. And like Treasurer, Auditor, etc., Steve is in a safe seat.
There are some really strong candidates on that list! Regarding the PUC seat: Youngberg is a beast!! He’s shown he can win in a democrat-heavy district, and he can definitely raise money. He would definitely be hard to beat! And I think he’d do a really good job — as a legislator and as a businessman, he has a lot of experience to draw on.
Didn’t Youngberg quit the legislature? I would have to guess Lauritsen (the Deputy) is a much better candidate for Public Lands, we’ve heard he is likely to run. Brunner has been the best leader of that office in decades, Lauritsen can carry on that legacy. Youngberg wouldn’t beat him at a convention.
Brunner is so good that I forgot his predecessors. He should be made king of all school lands.
He definatley has been excellent.
He is an example of why term limits are bad.