From KELO-AM, I heard this on the way to taking my son to School. And I had to do a double take on who they were saying was also considering a run:
Michels says it’s very heartening to hear support for a gubernatorial bid but says he’ll wait until the legislative session is over before making a decision.
and…
Attorney General Marty Jackley and U.S. Representative Kristi Noem have announced their candidacy.
There are other rumblings as to possible candidates for governor, including former governor and current U.S. Senator Mike Rounds.
On the Democrat’s side, Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton is rumored as a potential candidate as is former United States Attorney of South Dakota Brendan Johnson.
They have a few right, but they must be picking up some of their rumors at the local tavern, where drunks are throwing out random names.
Absolutely, Matt Michels, Kristi Noem and Marty Jackley are all thinking about it/actively in the hunt. And yes, for a long time Billie Sutton has been encouraged to to be the Democrat sacrificial lamb candidate.
But Brendan Johnson for Governor? That’s never come up, and frankly, with his experience and pedigree, it makes little to no sense. His chances would be far better in a contest for a federal office, but as far as I know, I haven’t heard he has any interest in jumping into things anytime soon.
And Mike Rounds is going to quit his US Senate seat to run for Governor again? Really? Sorry, but whoever is ‘rumbling’ that is just engaging in crazy talk.
Moving on….
What’s the difference?
http://dakotawarcollege.com/the-sdwc-update-to-the-state-of-the-political-races-for-february-2017/
You are both probably about as accurate as the other. Which is to say not very. Speculation is speculation – it’s all based on rumors. Can’t it all be fun if taken with a grain of salt?
My big question is why don’t either include Stace Nelson in the Governor speculation? He has a lot to say and would ad a lot of interest in the race.
I tend to keep it based on statement and/or evidence. There’s actually other things swirling out there, but they’re not ripe yet.
Regarding your question, there’s insufficient evidence to indicate Nelson is making serious movement towards a statewide race at this time. Even if he did, he’d face many of the same handicaps he did before (limited base of support, poor management/unable to let someone manage, awful fundraising). Then you have to consider who his base would be? I suspect they’d be already committed. Plus, another defeat this soon after his 3rd place finish in the US Senate race would likely limit any statewide aspirations he might hold forevermore.
In order to have a runoff election in SD you would need at least 4 good candidates.
1. Right now we have Jackley and Noem. I personally believe a head to head benefits Jackley. Slowly but surely he will win people over in the long game.
2. What if Michels gets in? Who does he take from? Honestly I think he takes from both but Noem probably benefits more because she will be the only woman.
What happens if this race becomes a free for all?
3. What if it’s a 4 person race? Jackley, Noem, Michels and Stace Nelson? Stace Nelson probably has 15-20% of the voters even if he shot someone on the street in Hanson County. Noem may win but would she clear the 35% threshold to win without a runoff?
4. If Stace Nelson gets in this race will create a blackout of any other political races in 2018.
The last time there was almost a runoff was in 1986 with Speaker George Mickelson, Congressman Clint Roberts, Lt. Governor Lowell Hanson and Secretary of State Alice Kundert. Mickelson won with 35.3% of the vote.
A four way race that could create a runoff is what the Nelsonites should be looking for.
If you throw Lance Russell into that mix as a tag team duo with Nelson beating the drum of corruption in SD who knows what could happen. Both would be loved by the media in the GOP primary and probably create a media blackout preventing other candidates or races to not get as much attention.
Jackley has the most pitfalls to avoid on the way to the nomination.
I think Stace and Michaels take more from him than Noem, either one or both clearly hurt Jackley.
Also an AG race where they are talking about EB-5/Gearup/corruption more and more has to rub off on Jackley also.
Noem has less pitfalls and probably can just stay above the fray and win in these scenarios.