Minnehaha GOP Debate Watch Party Straw poll results

@SoDakCampaigns

From my e-mail box:

Thank you to everyone who attended the GOP Debate Watch party at The District last night. Over 50 people attended and over 40 voted in the informal straw poll.

The Poll Results:
Ben Carson 19.4%
Carly Fiorina 19.4%…
Marco Rubio 13.2%
Donald Trump 10.6%
Ted Cruz 8.8%
Scott Walker 8.0%
John Kasich 5.3%
Jeb Bush 4.4%
Chris Christie 3.5%
Mike Huckabee 3.5%
Rand Paul 3.5%

Methodology: Participants were Republicans who attended the Debate watch party. Voters were asked to write down their top THREE candidates and place their ballot in an unsealed 5.56cal ammo can. The results were pooled to give a weighted impression of which candidates are trending. Percentages were rounded to the nearest tenth.

6 thoughts on “Minnehaha GOP Debate Watch Party Straw poll results”

  1. If I understand the methodology, I think it tells us a lot because it gives a person the benefit of being second or third choices. Question: was being a first choice given a higher weight than third? If so, what was the weight? Or was it like MLB’s MVP voting?

    1. There was no weight to the first second third choice. It was all just pooled. The disadvantage to this method is that no one candidate can gain a majority. The advantage is that it doesn’t require voters to choose their one candidate this early in the process. After chatting with folks before/during the debate, most didn’t have a firm single candidate they favored, and I thought this method would be a more subtle measure of support from GOP activists.

      Its all for fun.

  2. Dave,

    Got it. The merit of this methodology is is a form of favorabke/unfavorable giving a subtle hint of unfavorability because a Candidate who can’t get mentioned once in three choices has a challenge gaining when candidates drop out without addressing their unfavoribility. I think at this stage and because of the fluidity of the race it is a good measure.

    Observations:

    Negative: Trump polls at about 30%. Getting 10% means he got very little second and third choice. Bush gets one second or third choice for every two first choices. Not as bad as Trump but not good.

    Positive: Fiorina & Rubio appear to dominate in the second and third choice as their pooled results are high relative to their horse race standing.

    The rest neither have the positive of Fiorina or Rubio or negative of Trump or Bush but instead get a pooled result close to their horse race.

    1. It’s hard for me to support Fiorina. I just don’t think she is likable even if she knows her stuff.

      I feel like she is scolding everyone all the time.

  3. I think only the top 11 would be better than any of the Democrat candidates-oh, wait, there are only 11.

    I would put up the lint in my belly button against any of the deplorable Democrat candidates.

    That being said, I hope Jeb and Chris are on their way out so we can thin the herd of the mealy-mouthed, moderate, establishment types. Kasich and Huckabee could bow out as well.

  4. This is an entertaining poll for one reason: South Dakota doesn’t matter in any presidential vote – primary or general. But they do have the ability to screw things up by sending Thune, Rounds and Noem to Washington.

    But it’s fun to weigh in and give your three opinions on this one!

    I hope they enjoy working with Hillary more than they hated working with Obama.

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