Had a reader send me a note about a recent Mitchell Chamber Development Corporation forum where Attorney General Marty Jackley was present and explaining the ballot measures to about 60-70 people in attendance, when Marty was asked the question “Are you running for Governor or Congress?”
Jackley’s reply? “I’m not running for Congress.”
I think it’s safe to assume that things are already “Game on” in the 2026 Gubernatorial race.
In case you were distracted by the election:
Heidi Ihnen, 44, and Clint Ihnen, 47, were booked into jail Monday night. They each face 4 counts of child abuse and more than a dozen counts of animal neglect.
Lincoln County Sheriff Steve Swenson told KELOLAND News he believed there was close to 50 animals at the home.
According to the city of Lennox website, Heidi is the city’s finance officer.
Read the entire story here at KELOland.
Did no one notice at the city offices she might have smelled a little funny with 50 ANIMALS in the home? Bleaugh.
Today is the day. And starting in the next 12 hours or so, we’re going to start getting some ideas of what the next session is going to look like. But before that, the outcome of National races are going to affect us more than you might think. Does Trump win, possibly taking Governor Kristi Noem with him to DC or giving her an ambassadorship? A then Governor Larry Rhoden would trigger both a reworking of state government and a reshuffling of the 2026 gubernatorial race with an incumbent defending against a couple of the GOP’s best. If Trump loses, does that redirect Kristi’s gaze back to federal office? Would she then challenge Senator Mike Rounds in 2026?
Which legislative seats are going to win or lose? It’s no secret that the hard right has been trying to engineer their return to power after they used SDRTL and SD Protecting Kids to play in the primary to attack and remove incumbents in an attempt to return to legislative Leadership. Through his PAC, State Rep. Scott Odenbach has dumped cash into the D32 Senate Independent’s campaign to knock out Republican Senator Helene Duhamel. Democrats are resurgent in a few areas, which might not seem to be much – but they don’t have to do much to upset the well laid plans of those trying to play power politics. It seems to be a complete free for all as various parties compete to put their person in.
A lot of this is driven by the upcoming leadership races. After the last election we had a number of legislators led by Jon Hansen voting against Republican Leadership in the Speaker of the House race. The consequences of that in the upcoming session could be more dire if there is a larger group of defecting Republicans trying to overturn caucus decisions again. So, how many Republicans is as important as which Republicans get elected tonight.
Predictions? Here’s the races I’m watching.
| D1 House | ||
| Logan Manhart (R) | Steven D. McCleerey (D) | Josh Dennert (L) |
| Christopher Reder (R) | Mark Sumption (D) | Tamara Lesnar (L) |
Watch this race. D1 has the possibility to roil House caucus elections. No incumbents, at least one known Democrat, and 2 libertarians who have strong enough local names to potentially peel votes off of the Republicans could spell trouble in this this swing district. L’s won’t win – but they could steal numbers that the Republican need. I believe Dems could take one, if not both seats.
| District 3 House: | |
| Al Novstrup (R) | Erin R Rudner (D) |
| Brandei Schaefbauer (R-Incumbent) |
Word coming late in the game that the Democrat Rudner seems to have some steam. I’ve looked at her website, and she might have had more if she focused on better messaging (US post office?), but some locals think she could bump one of the Republicans off. Not sure that I see it, but that’s what some are claiming. I am doubtful Rudner is going to happen, but people in Aberdeen think Schaefbauer might be the one to get bumped off if one of them does.
| District 10 House: | |
| Erin Healy (D – Incumbent) | Bobbi L Andera (R) |
| Kameron Nelson (D – Incumbent) |
Sioux Falls Districts are more important to watch, as those are where the state’s deep red moves into shades of purple. Here, the district is pure blue. Both of these Dems will sail through and Bobbi Andera should end up squished in the road as Democrats roll over her. This one is just not going to happen for R’s
| District 11 Senate: | |
| Chris Karr (R) | Steve Natz (D) |
| District 11 House: | |
| Brian Mulder (R – Incumbent) | Aaron Matson (D) |
| Keri Weems (R) | Sonja Mentzer (D) |
On the Senate side, neither Karr ($10.4k spent, $5.4k cash on hand) or Natz ($7.3 spent, 3.6k cash on hand) have put up serious numbers going into the last 2 weeks, so they’re just going through the motions of campaigning. Having been elected before, Karr will likely take it because Natz didn’t give voters a reason not to. In the House, Mulder as the incumbent should be fine. Matson showed some sparks of life, raising over $20k in the campaign, spending $12.8k, with $8.7 cash on hand for the last 2 weeks, but I don’t know that it will be enough to put him over Keri Weems. This should be a safe Republican District by the end of the night.
| District 12 Senate: |
| Arch Beal (R- incumbent) |
| Clay Hoffman (D) |
| District 14 Senate: |
| Sandra Henry (D) |
| Larry Zikmund (R – Incumbent) |
D12 and 14 Senate are the big two for Republicans in the Senate contests. But I believe as we get closer to the election, they are becoming less competitive, and the incumbents should cruise through just fine, unless there’s a lingering anti-incumbent sentiment that we don’t know about. Everyone knows Arch Beal. Everyone Knows Larry Zikmund, and their opponents have not made enough of a case to why they shouldn’t be there.
| District 14 House: | |
| Taylor Rehfeldt (R – Incumbent) | B.J. Motley (D) |
| Tony Kayser (R) | Keith Block (D) |
Taylor Rehfeldt should be fine, but there are those expressing to me that they are nervous about Kayser being eclipsed by a Democrat. I don’t see it. This should go GOP all the way.
| District 15 House: | |
| Joni Tschetter (R) | Kadyn Wittman (D – Incumbent) |
| Brad Lindwurm (R) | Erik Muckey (D) |
Right now, this district is double Dem, but if anyone has a chance of breaking that tradition, it’s Republican Joni Tschetter who came within less than 100 votes of doing so last election. I would venture Kadyn Wittman of the many press releases will take a spot as the incumbent. But I anticipate Tschetter who came close last election will fight it out down to the end with Muckey for the #2 spot. (Bad Brad Lindwurm is a dog that isn’t going to hunt).
| District 18 Senate: | |
| Lauren Nelson (R) | Sarah Carda (D) |
Here’s another big sleeper to watch. School voucher advocate Lauren Nelson might have edged out Jean Hunhoff in the primary, but Democrats pivoted to one of the best candidates on the board for them this cycle in Sarah Carda, the President of the Yankton School Board. Carda has served on the South Dakota Department of Education Special Education Advisory Panel and SD Council on Development Disabilities as an appointee of Governor’s Daugaard and Noem, and is married to a current Yankton City Commissioner. And from what I’m told, she’s been able to gather substantial resources to compete with Bernie Hunhoff as her campaign chair and Ryan Cwach as her treasurer. $23,830.31 spent, and $4,602.32 cash on hand, plus another $3500 raised since, compared to Lauren Nelsen’s $30,301.26 spent, $391.18 cash on hand, plus another $1000 since. With the Yankton County GOP’s utter disorganization, the stage has been set for this race to be close.
| District 26 Senate: | |
| Shawn Bordeaux (D – Incumbent) | Tamara Grove (R) |
On Dakota Town Hall this last week, several of us were speculating on the races, with Austin Goss of the Dakota Scout hot on possibility of this contest flipping for the GOP. But, despite saying my prayers at night, I don’t think this is in the R Column.
Shawn Bordeaux is not a favorite in the Senate, and at one time was removed as chair of the State Tribal Relations Committee because of him being a jerk. But I don’t think this split district is going to boot him and replace him with Jason Ravnsborg’s former Campaign Manager. Tamara is a great person, and has the experience of the other side of the campaign and as a candidate herself in a couple of other races (2018 Legislative, 2016 City) in Sioux Falls, but as a recent transplant to D26, making the case to remove an incumbent is a tough, tough challenge that I don’t think is going to happen. We’re also in a very high turnout year, which will favor the status quo because people have voted for Bordeaux several times before. It might take Rep. Rebecca Reimer to displace Bordeaux from that seat down the line. But even that will take a very strong campaign effort.
| District 27 House: | |
| Peri Pourier (D – Incumbent) | Liz May (R – Incumbent) |
| Elsie Meeks (D) |
Pourier is a given, but the question is how well Meeks is going to perform? Meeks was a former Lt. Gov Candidate back in the day, and has raised a bit, but again – the question is whether or not her campaign has risen to the level of knocking out an incumbent, even one such as Hillary Clinton Donor Liz May.
| District 31 House: | |
| Mary Fitzgerald (R – Incumbent) | Shana McVickers (I) |
| Scott Odenbach (R – Incumbent) | Victoria Greenlee (I) |
This one should be Fitzgerald and Odenbach, no matter what the resident D31 crackpots crow about on facebook. Stick a fork in the indy’s. That tater is done.
| District 32 Senate: | |
| Helene Duhamel (R – Incumbent) | Karen McNeal (I) |
| District 32 House: | |
| Steve Duffy (R – Incumbent) | Nicole Uhre-Balk (D) |
| Brook Kaufman (R) |
No matter the amount that D31 Representative Scott Odenbach might funnel to Karen McNeal through his PAC, or how many facebook posts come from Toby Doeden, right-wing Indy wackadoodle Karen McNeal isn’t going to happen. McNeal raised $17,325.00, and spent $16,880.36, leaving her nothing but $444 and trash-talking door to door for the last 2 weeks. That’s up against this cycle’s nicest and most MOTIVATED candidate, State Senator Helene Duhamel. In this contest, everyone was ALL IN for Helene, who started with $33,862.10, raised another $71,576.97, had $$62,215.47 left for advertising in the last 2 weeks, plus another $5k in late donations. I believe there were party postcards, facebook promotions, and so many others jumped in to support a genuinely nice person who always runs like she’s 10 points down. Say goodbye to the Karen, folks. This race is over.
District 32 House should also come out fine for Republicans with incumbent Steve Duffy and Brook Kaufman. Single Democrats running alone might attempt a bullet voting campaign, but those are challenging because you have to convince people to only use half of their vote. Even though Democrat Nicole Uhre-Balk looks a lot like her aunt Carole Hillard, I give this one to the R’s all the way.
| District 34 Senate: | |
| Taffy Howard (R) | Kehala Two Bulls (D) |
Kehala Two Bulls was a good replacement candidate for the Dems, but I don’t think she’s going to be able to overcome the voter registration advantage. Senate Leadership has been supporting Taffy’s candidacy, so I think you can safely mark this one down in the R Column.
Those are my predictions. Am I way off? Any others that you see might be on the bubble? Let us know in the comment section.
Looks like the Minnehaha County GOP of 2024 is the State Democrat Party of 2006 or 2008. Because both spend more time worrying about ballot measures than the thing they’re actually supposed to be there for. After quite a bit of waiting, their campaign finance pre-general report has finally been posted. And aside from it being a mess, the picture it does paint is a that the State’s Largest County Republican Party really doesn’t seem to give a flying fig about candidates – the very reason they’re supposed to exist.
Minnehaha County GOP Disclosure by Pat Powers on Scribd
Under income, it starts by painting a bleak picture..
Which gets a little better when you get to the “other income.” But, someone explain to me how it’s allowable to say you took in over $36,000 from an event (Over 21K in expenses for it, BTW) without disclosing the source, and just lumping it all together in a mish-mash?
But I digress.. They raised some cash, and did so at great expense (about 55% of every dollar raised via an event). So, what did South Dakota’s largest county GOP organization do with all this money they raised? Well, they really didn’t do much:
First and foremost at the Minnehaha County GOP’s donation list were Vote No on H ($500), The Life Defense Fund ($750) and $1000 to the SD Property rights and Local Control Alliance – a group who’s cause is not even endorsed by the Republican Party. And they threw in $950 to the Free-dumb Caucus PAC.
And only then did they think of why they’re there, to support & take care of candidates. And in some cases their contribution to the efforts were in silly amounts.
Tony Kayser (D14) and Joni Tschetter (D15) both received a respectable $1000. Bethany Soye (D9) got a check for $750, and Brenda Lawrence (D15) received $700. Tesa Schwans (D9) $500. Chris Karr (D11) $450. And then the downhill slope picks up.
The two most competitive races in Sioux Falls were supported with $200 for Larry Zikmund (D14) and $175 for Arch Beal (D12). Another contested race – Sue Peterson in D13 got a whopping $130. Don’t think I would have given Brad Lindwurm (D15) or Bobbi Andera (D10) $250, but they fared batter than Greg Jamison (D12) who received $125. Tom Pischke who doesn’t have a general got a check for $199.50, and came out almost even with Keri Weems and Brian Mulder (D11) added together – who both have a race, but only saw a $110 donation each from the Minnehaha County GOP.
Who got stiffed by the Minnehaha GOP? No help to Amber Arlint (D12) or Assistant Majority Leader Taylor Rehfeldt (D14), despite the fact Minnehaha County donated to their running mates.
It’s like they’re not taking a thoughtful approach to anything, and just running things in a thoughtless or haphazard manner making significant donations to the candidates and causes they like, and telling Weems and Mulder that here’s their obligatory check, when they wouldn’t even go that far for Arlint or Rehfeldt. As big of a dipstick as he is, I don’t notice Cole Heisey on that list, nor do I see Dean Karsky – Minnehaha County candidates who both have a fall contest. (Apparently county races don’t count).
The conclusion that we can draw from looking at Minnehaha’s campaign finance report? Candidates don’t seem to be as important as ballot measures. Zero funding a few, $110 donations to others.
The only remaining question I have?
How many Louis Vuitton bags is Tom Pischke sitting on exactly?
From my mailbox, former South Dakota Republican Party Chairman Dan Lederman is urging Republicans and others to make sure they get out and vote YES on Referred Law 21 tomorrow via an e-mail blast:
—
Hello,
As a former legislator and chair of the South Dakota Republican Party, I am writing to ask for your vote on an important ballot measure.
Referred Law 21 provides landowner protections, revenue for counties and the potential for thousands of jobs along with major economic impact for South Dakota’s economy.
Please vote Yes on RL21
Opposition to the measure is funded by extreme liberal groups like the Jane Fonda Climate Fund and a New York City progressive group called the New World Foundation. Both groups have been funding the text messages, postcards you have received that make outlandish claims about the measure.
The simple fact is that RL21 will give farmers protections that guarantee utility companies respect their property rights and provides $1 per mile tax revenue to counties and landowners affected by transmission lines.
When I served as chairman of the SDGOP, I was proud to support President Trump and the historic tax cuts he passed. Part of President Trump’s agenda was to make America energy independent and under his leadership we went from dependence on foreign energy to becoming a net energy exporter. As we go to the polls tomorrow, let’s vote to return President Trump to the White House so he can continue his work making America Great Again and let’s vote YES on Referred Law 21 to give our farmers the rights they deserve to continue feeding the world and creating American energy!
If you want to know which side you should be on when voting on RL21, just compare who supports and who opposes the measure.
Supporters of RL21 include groups including, South Dakota Corn Growers, South Dakota Chamber of Commerce, South Dakota Farm Bureau and South Dakota Ethanol Producers.
Opposition to RL21 include groups that want to destroy production agriculture and block energy production like the Sierra Club, Dakota Rural Action, Jane Fonda, Bold Nebraska and Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb.
Please join me in supporting our farmers, our ag economy and President Trump’s goal of making America energy independent by unleashing South Dakota’s biofuel industry.
Please Vote Yes on RL21!
See you at the polls,
PS. Find out more about Referred Law 21 by clicking the image below
Attorney General Jackley Joins Call For Peaceful Transition of Power After Election
PIERRE, S.D. – South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley urges citizens to support a peaceful transition of power after Tuesday’s Presidential Election.
Attorney General Jackley is part of a bi-partisan group of 51 Attorneys General who are encouraging calm after the election. The peaceful transition of power is part the nation’s democratic system.
“This election has been divisive, and our Nation’s Attorneys General are urging that any election issues be resolved legally and in an orderly means without violence or property damage,” said Attorney General Jackley.
Other Attorneys General calling for a non-violence response are from: Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virgin Islands, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
The Attorneys General statement can be found below:
“Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s election, we expect that Americans will respond peacefully and we condemn any acts of violence related to the results. A peaceful transfer of power is the highest testament to the rule of law, a tradition that stands at the heart of our nation’s stability. As Attorneys General, we affirm our commitment to protect our communities and uphold the democratic principles we serve.
We call upon every American to vote, participate in civil discourse and, above all, respect the integrity of the democratic process. Let us come together after this election not divided by outcomes but united in our shared commitment to the rule of law and safety of all Americans. Violence has no place in the democratic process; we will exercise our authority to enforce the law against any illegal acts that threaten it.”
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The postcards are hitting all over the state, and there’s more of them finding their way to my inbox. So, here’s another selection for your review!
District 5’s Glen Vilhauer is on track to be the next State Senator from Watertown as he brings things home with a positive final message:
Ballot measures are pushing hard to the last minute as well:
I personally received this card from the Protect South Dakota’s Ag Future ballot question committee. Which, they didn’t have to. They already had my vote.
The SDGOP took a hit against Indy Karen McNeal and her wackadoodle agenda in this Halloween themed card that hit last week, urging people to vote Republican (and not McNeal) on November 5th:
Pac N Heat brought the thunder in a couple of races starting with the District 18 Senate race, pointing out Lauren Nelson’s agenda includes stripping funds away from underfunded schools to put towards private academies:
Ouch. If you thought that hit was hard, check out what they had to say in the District 15 House Race when it comes to “Bad Brad Lindwurm”:
I’m not sure that Bad Brad Lindwurm should expect anything else, since all three protection orders are public record.
Bringing it back home on a more positive note is State Senator Helene Duhamel’s latest mailer noting her family’s history of serving Rapid City for generations:
Just remember that tomorrow evening everything campaign related will be at an end.
At least for 2024. 🙂
Remember when things made sense?
This was the ad that put John Thune over the top. Where he’s been ever since!
