Mark Mickelson bows out of 2018 Gubernatorial race.

Looks like someone got ahold of a letter before I did. As teased earlier today, Mark Mickelson has decided to take a pass on running for Governor:

MICKELSON, G. MARK_bcard_clipMark Mickelson, the Sioux Falls lawmaker who has been considered a favorite to be the state’s next governor, says he has decided not to run for the job when it’s open in 2018.

Mickelson, 50, had been actively fundraising and gearing up against potential GOP primary rivals, raising about $1 million for the campaign. But the commitment it takes to run a large statewide race was taking him away from his wife and three boys, who range in age from 17 to 13.

and..

Mickelson notified his supporters with letters and phone calls this week. He said he will return money to donors.

Read it all here.

KELO AM’s Token Liberal: Instead of congratulating themselves, Tornberg & Pranger should have resigned.

In the aftermath of Tuesdays’ election, Todd Epp at KELO AM Radio received a copy of Ann Tornberg’s ridiculous self-congratulatory letter to Democrats about how great of a job they did this past year. And he wasn’t buying any of it:

..don’t get me started about the South Dakota Democratic Party.

They issued a release yesterday saying how wonderful they were and their candidates were, though they got their butts handed to them. There are now fewer Democrats in the state legislature since 1954.

1954. Let that sink in. Eisenhower was President. Cars had fins. Telephones were the size of Volkswagens.

State Democratic chair Ann Tornberg and executive director Susan Jones Pranger instead should have done the honorable thing and resigned. If the state Democratic Party were an actual, functioning business or non-profit, everyone associated with this debacle would be on the street.

The state Democratic Party lost because they have no plan for voter registration. They lost because they have no plan to recruit candidates. They lost because they are beholden to the South Dakota Farmers Union, which has its own ongoing issues with its own members and transparency. They lost because they did not have a message that resonates with regular, hardworking South Dakotans.

Read it here.

I think that sums it up well. The Democrats lost because they really don’t have a party to support their “impressive slate of legislative candidates” as Ann called them. Instead, they recruited them and left them to twist in the wind.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m ok with that. But it does seem like a crappy thing to do to someone you talked into being a candidate.

The 2017 State Senate. Caucus elections on Saturday.

Because I’m a visual person, I thought it would be a worthwhile exercise to map out a seating chart for the incoming State Senate just to show how the 2017 incarnation of the South Dakota State Senate is going to look:

senateseatingchart2

It’s a timely topic, as in 2 days time on Saturday the Republican members of the State Senate are heading to Pierre to hold Caucus elections to determine who will be leading the group.

Who do I hear is running?   At the moment, I’m hearing those who could be making a bid for Majority Leader include incoming Senator Jim Bolin, who spent some time going door to door and helping other Senate candidates in the past few weeks before the election. His major handicap would be that this is his first term as a Senate.

Senator Blake Curd is also pegged as looking at the Majority Leader Position. He’s been around he Senate for quite a while, so is familiar with the process and the players. His downside is that as a surgeon and his work at the Sioux Falls Specialty Hospital, his plate isn’t exactly empty. He’s tremendously busy.

Senator Alan Solano is also said to be looking at the Majority Leader Position. After being appointed by the Governor, he’s won election on his own right a couple of times now, so he’s also familiar with the workings of the Senate. Alan is as conservative as any in the Senate – just ask the NRA or SDRTL who both rank him highly. But for some reason, the hard right has targeted him, and tried to take him out in a primary as not being conservative enough.

There’s also talk of Senator Ernie Otten throwing his hat in the ring, but I’ve only heard that from one source.

Who is in the chase for Assistant Majority Leader? Senator Ryan Maher is the lone person I’ve confirmed as seeking the office at the moment. This is important, because under caucus rules, you don’t drop down if you lose. You run for one office, and one office only.

Incoming Senator Lance Russell is also mentioned as running in an e-mail being sent out of Rapid City by some unknown group (Update – I’m told it’s Citizens for Liberty) trying to convince legislators to vote for their choices. I spoke with Lance today, and I don’t think that’s going to happen.

President Pro Tempore sounds as if it’s going to be a choice of Senator Gary Cammack versus Senator Brock Greenfield. This could be close

While Cammack has the job right now, the Senate has become far more conservative. In addition, Brock has been in the Legislature a great number of years, and has shown a great deal of interest in running for the position, including going out campaigning for some of the races. This may be Brock’s year, and if so, it’s going to be a big year.

I’m hearing that at this late hour, Senators Phil Jensen and Bob Ewing both are looking at running for Majority Whip positions – and considering there’s 29 Senators, there’s probably room for both of them, and more!

Getting back to the e-mail that’s going out to Senators trying to campaign and sway their votes in the closed caucus election process. This went out at 3am this morning…

From: Bobbe Helmerick
Date: November 10, 2016 at 3:38:44 AM CST
Subject: Senate Leadership Election

Dear Senator Elect:

Please reject the corrupt practice of quid pro quo when choosing leaders in the South Dakota Senate.  South Dakotans have had enough of corruption and the appearance of impropriety in our state government – it’s time to stop it.  

As a first step toward that goal, I ask you to support Brock Greenfield for the position of President Pro Tempore, Ryan Maher for Majority Leader, and Lance Russell for Assistant Majority Leader. 

Brock has promised to equitably distribute committee chairmanships among Senators willing and able to take those positions rather than concentrate power in the hands of a few.  He has promised to use the knowledge and experience of each Senator as a guide to determine suitable committee assignments, and to give fair and timely hearing for all bills in appropriate committees.  He has put this promise in writing.    

Ryan has demonstrated solid leadership during his legislative career.  Under his guidance as chairman of the Executive Board, an independent audit of the LRC was conducted.  As a result, many needed reforms and infrastructure improvements that benefit both houses were accomplished.  

Lance has served for eight years in the House.  He is known for his wise approach to difficult issues.  He has earned the respect of his colleagues who depend on his thoughtful deliberation and helpful demeanor.  His judicious approach to leadership makes him a perfect choice for this leadership team.  

Please help to restore the people’s trust in their state government and cast your vote for these worthy candidates:  Brock Greenfield, Ryan Maher, and Lance Russell!

Sincerely,
R.D. Helmerick

The letter gets a lot of things wrong, such as Maher running for Majority Leader, a race which he has directly told me he’s not running in. Which is why I’m not sure on Lance Russell running.

So, who is Bobbe Helmerick, and why is he trying to influence these elections? If you don’t know who Bobbe Helmerick is (I know I didn’t) google him, and you will find him here at the SDWC:

Dear [redacted],

Dennis Daugaard is not the only candidate for SD Governor.

Lora Hubbel, another Republican, is challenging him.

and..

Bobbe Helmerick
Hubbel Campaign scheduler

Read that here.

So, the person pushing a caucus dream slate was the Hubbel Campaign Scheduler?   Given the paranoid tone of the e-mail, I’m not shocked.  (Update – I’m now hearing this is all being coordinated by Citizens for Liberty in Rapid City)

I wouldn’t hold it against any of those Senators mentioned in the e-mail, because they’re all good guys, and I consider all of them friends.

There’s a rumor of a coming 2018 Gubernatorial Announcement coming.

The world of GOP political gossip is highly charged at the moment, with multiple sources noting that an announcement in the 2018 GOP race for Governor is forthcoming, possibly as soon as today.

While some are speculating that someone is going to announce that they’re in, the more prevalent rumor is that an announcement may be forthcoming that someone is getting out. But again, it’s all a rumor at this point.

If one of the major players in the GOP Hunt for Governor decides to take a pass, it opens up what has generally been a closed contest, and might entice others to dip their toes in the water in an exploratory effort.

Hang on for more.

Is she talking about the election we had last night?

An acquaintance sent this over to me, and I have to ask if Ann Tornberg is talking about the election we had last night, because her enthusiasm seems a bit misplaced.

Begin forwarded message:

From: “Ann Tornberg” <info@sddp.org>
Date: November 9, 2016 at 3:08:06 PM CST
To: 
Subject: Thank you
Reply-To: info@sddp.org

Thank you. 

For all your hard work, for all the time you’ve committed, for the hard-earned money you have donated, and for reading all these emails, to support South Dakota Democrats up and down the ballot – thank you, from the bottom of my heart. 

Because of your hard work, we were able to defeat Referred Law 19, the incumbent protection plan, and Referred Law 20, which would have lowered the minimum wage for young workers. Once again, Democrats showed that when our ideas are on the ballot, the people of South Dakota agree.  

Because of your hard work, our statewide candidates – U.S. Senate Candidate Jay Williams, U.S. House Candidate Paula Hawks, and Public Utilities Commission Candidate Henry Red Cloud were able to run great campaigns. Running against well-funded political insiders like John Thune, Kristi Noem, and Chris Nelson is a tall challenge, but our candidates ran smart, energetic campaigns and raised some very important issues. They, and all Democrats, can be proud of the races they ran. 

Because of your hard work months before the election, Democrats had an impressive slate of legislative candidates including a Grammy nominated artist, an escaped hostage of Saddam Hussein, a former gubernatorial cabinet member, along with teachers, health care providers, firefighters, farmers, lawyers, and business leaders. These candidates were moved to run to provide balance and accountability in state government, and Democrats remain committed to that cause. The Democrats who were elected to the legislature are ready to work across the aisle for the betterment of all South Dakotans.

Last night didn’t turn out the way we wanted it to, and we lost some tough races in South Dakota and around the country. But Democrats will continue to fight to move our state and nation forward and to promote our shared values of rewarding hard work, investing in our children, advancing inclusion and empowerment of others, and expanding opportunity for all. 

Today we begin the fight for 2018. We must build to make gains in the State Legislature, to elect Democrats to state constitutional offices, to the Governor’s office, and to take back South Dakota’s U.S. House seat.

Thanks again for all your hard work and dedication.

Sincerely,

Ann Tornberg
South Dakota Democratic Party Chair

She left out the part about all these candidates getting their butts kicked.

I agree the Democrat party must build, but for about the last decade that hasn’t happened. And Tornberg took them the farthest they’ve been down in the hole in over 50 years.

Will they “build?” Sure. You bet. Just don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen. I’m not sure why 2018 would be any different than the many years that have preceded it for quite a while.

South Dakota Democrats only able to put together 2 legitimate victories out of 105 seats.

So, about those South Dakota Democrats…

Do you realize that in the Senate, they did not win a single, solitary race. Only uncontested ones. And in the House of Representatives, of the ten seats they won, six were uncontested, 2 were contested against Independents, and only two wins out of 70 seats – one in D17 (Ray Ring over Debbie Pease), and one in D25 (Dan Ahlers over Roger Hunt) were head to head runs against Republicans.

Think about that.

The Democrat party was only able to put together legitimate head to head victories over Republicans in only 2 out of 105 seats.  That’s just staggering for a political party who, not much more than 20 years ago in the 1992 election was able to capture a majority in the State Senate.

The intervening years have not been kind to the opposition, but in many cases, they’ve brought it onto themselves.

As opposed to recruiting and running a full slate of candidates, they’ve relied on the stopgap placeholder to put a warm body into candidate positions with hopes of filling it later, in all too many instances.

As opposed to trying to appeal to the middle in center-right to conservative South Dakota, they keep pushing farther and farther left. When you bring in candidates for the head of your ticket who want to raise taxes all over the board and tell us we need to stop oil production, farmers who might possibly be sympathetic to your cause are just going to shake their head and pull the lever for the GOP that much more earnestly.

As opposed to party building, the Democrats have fallen into this trap of working ballot issues, thinking that they’re going to build their potential mailing lists, and the electorate is going to reward them for their ideas they can’t get pushed through during session.

Now that they’re at their lowest point of elected officials IN OVER 50 YEARS (since ’53), you would think that maybe they would get the hint that their path which meanders towards extinction isn’t working for them anymore.

But somehow, I just don’t think they get it.

IM 22 passes…. and the GOP elected in a landslide.

Expanding on the thoughts in the prior post about Initiated Measure 22, “a measure to revise state campaign finance and lobbying laws, create a publicly funded campaign finance program, create an ethics commission and appropriate funds…”

The premise of the measure was that allegedly Pierre is roiling in corruption. (Which we all know to be utter BS). Yet, at the same time, the majority Republicans were not just elected, but we had our numbers strengthened.

What’s the message we should take from that?

About those ballot issues…

Last night was one of the wildest rides I can remember in a while. As a Republican, I felt good about going into election night… and I felt even better this morning when I saw that the GOP actually picked up seats. I’ve always operated under the assumption that political balance is a pendulum, and it would swing back to fewer Republicans, so it’s important to work to create a bulwark against that.

Except, one factor I have forgotten to take into account is the South Dakota Democrat Party giving up any illusion of running candidates for office. And so the new normal is 10-15 House members, and 5-10 Senators. The question for the GOP is whether they’re able to keep Democrat numbers down, and hold the caucus together.

What was more in doubt last night were the ballot issues, and we ended up with some surprising results.

AMENDMENT R – The Tech School change fared more poorly than a measure with no true opposition should, although it still won at 50.6% to 49.4%

AMENDMENT S, or Marsy’s Law won handily on a 60-40% basis. Call it the Kelsey Grammer effect. It was a good ad.

AMENDMENT T for redistricting, which I had pegged as winning, lost 57-43%. It had only token opposition, but maybe that’s all it needed.

AMENDMENT U, placing statutory interest rates for Loans into the constitution fared poorly, losing 63-37%

AMENDMENT V which hid party label on the ballot went down 55-45%.

INITIATED MEASURE 21 was a blowout at 76%-24%, placing maximum finance charges on certain licensed money lenders. This was a bit surprising to me, as South Dakotans aren’t apt to ban entire industries, but apparently, they are.

An even bigger surprise is INITIATED MEASURE 22, which creates a publicly funded campaign finance program, won 52-48%. Of the three measures coming from Rick Weiland, this and Amendment V had the fiercest and most direct opposition, and most of us thought T would be the one to pass, not IM22.

Before it’s implemented, I suspect IM22’s public campaign component will face opposition and removal. It’s kind of hard to even think of programs such as Medicaid expansion when $12-50 million is stripped from the budget for politician’s political campaigns…. But, we’ll see.

INITIATED MEASURE 23 to allow Unions to force membership fees went down hard. 80-20%.

And no one cared about the other two on the ballot by this point, so expectedly Referred Law 19 & Referred Law 20 both lost.

What are your thoughts on these ballot issues?