Fox News just called South Dakota for Thune. 15 minutes before any results are released.

They must have been following the race!

From the Hill: 

Republicans are projected to keep their majority in the House, as expected.

ABC News and NBC News both made the projection after 8:30 p.m.

Only a handful of competitive seats had been determined when the projections were made, but Democrats faced tall odds at winning back the House given the GOP’s 30-seat majority.

And..

Democrats further struggled with candidate recruitment in many competitive districts that offered pickup opportunities in a presidential year, when voter turnout is higher.

Read it all here.

As I’m waiting around fo polls to close, several politicos are talking about the issues with the ballot measures – and how many legislators in going door to door are hearing that there are too many of these out of state driven measures on the ballot – and it’s time that they do something about it.

People are talking about adjustments ranging from restrictions on out of state cash being infused into the races, to adjusting the vote threshold for Constitutional amendments.  

The one point stressed is that whatever is to be done, it has to be an open, palms up process that meets with voter approval. South Dakota has a strong tradition with the process of referral and initiatives, and whatever form reform takes, it has to recognize that, and prevent it’s abuse.

I’m on location at the District in Sioux Falls, with “SDWC Election Central” up and operating.

Polls have now closed in Eastern South Dakota, with another hour and fifteen minutes until results will be released. 

An Hour and fifteen minutes, you may ask? From the Secretary of State: 

Election Results Cannot Be Released until 8:15pm Central Time

Pierre, SD – Secretary of State Shantel Krebs stated, “Julie Pearson, Pennington County Auditor called the Secretary of State’s office and reported to us that there was a fire incident at one of the polling locations (a school) in Pennington County. Voting was delayed for 15 minutes while voters and election workers went outside.” 

The election workers took the ballot box containing all marked ballots along with the Voter Registration list with them as they exited the polling location.

Due to the fifteen minute delay caused by the fire incident the precinct will need to remain open an additional fifteen minutes. Closing at 7:15pm Mountain Time.  

Election results will not be able to be displayed on the Secretary of State’s website or released by County Auditors until 8:15 pm Central Time as state law requires. Live results will be displayed at 8:30pm Central Time.

SDCL 12-20-17. Returns not disclosed until all polls in state closed. No public disclosure of the returns of state and federal elections in any primary or general election is permitted until each precinct-polling place in the state is closed. This provision applies to each precinct-polling place within the state.

                                                                                                            #30#

So, just hang tight.

I’m getting prepped to head down to Sioux Falls for the GOP Victory party at the District. I’ll have all my equipment in tow, so stay tuned for coverage of tonight’s election!

This year’s long lines at the ballot box are a result of a couple of things. First, a very contentious presidential election driving participation numbers up. Secondly, what some of us might consider “the ballot from hell” with one of the longest lists of ballot measures in recent history.

So, where do I think these measures are going to land? I think the position of measures on the ballot will have something to do with it, as well as a propensity of people to vote NO when faced with overly long explanations and confusion. And there’s also a mix of how much advertising the measures have done.

Ballot Question	Yes	No
AMENDMENT R: AN AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION REGARDING POSTSECONDARY TECHNICAL EDUCATION INSTITUTES.	59%	41%
AMENDMENT S: AN INITIATED AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION TO EXPAND RIGHTS FOR CRIME VICTIMS	52%	48%
AMENDMENT T: AN INITIATED AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION TO PROVIDE FOR STATE LEGISLATIVE REDISTRICTING BY A COMMISSION	57%	43%
AMENDMENT U: AN INITIATED AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION LIMITING THE ABILITY TO SET STATUTORY INTEREST RATES FOR LOANS	42%	58%
AMENDMENT V: AN INITIATED AMENDMENT TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA CONSTITUTION ESTABLISHING NONPARTISAN ELECTIONS	48%	52%
INITIATED MEASURE 21: AN INITIATED MEASURE TO SET A MAXIMUM FINANCE CHARGE FOR CERTAIN LICENSED MONEY LENDERS	Toss Up	Toss Up
INITIATED MEASURE 22: AN INITIATED MEASURE TO REVISE STATE CAMPAIGN FINANCE AND LOBBYING LAWS, CREATE A PUBLICLY FUNDED CAMPAIGN FINANCE PROGRAM, CREATE AN ETHICS COMMISSION, AND APPROPRIATE FUNDS	42%	58%
INITIATED MEASURE 23: AN INITIATED MEASURE TO GIVE CERTAIN ORGANIZATIONS THE RIGHT TO CHARGE FEES	35%	65%
REFERRED LAW 19: AN ACT TO REVISE STATE LAWS REGARDING ELECTIONS AND ELECTION PETITIONS	38%	62%
REFERRED LAW 20: AN ACT LOWERING THE STATE MINIMUM WAGE FOR NON-TIPPED EMPLOYEES UNDER AGE 18	35%	65%

In looking at it, I’m betting on the top three measures on the ballot to pass for a few different reasons.

Amendment R has had no real opposition of any sort, aside from a cursory notation against it in the ballot measure brochure. It has also had some advertising in favor of it, and there’s really no controversy attached to it.

Amendment S, a.k.a. Marsy’s Law, will be tighter, due to the opposition of many State’s Attorneys. However, as a concept, most are in favor of victim’s rights. And there’s the Kelsey Grammer ad. Arguably the single best and most recognizable ad of the entire election season. It’s a powerful argument, they’re towards the top of the ballot, and I think they’ll pull it off.

Amendment T. The GOP had to pick their battles, and ultimately, many adopted the same attitude I had – who cares? It’s not going to amount to a hill of beans, and the GOP will still be dominant. Although rejiggering districts in the short term will be a pain, there are bigger fish to fry.

The rest are more likely to end up in the loss column.

Amendment U was put on the ballot, but not effectively supported with advertising by the ballot measure sponsors. However, what it is doing is causing voter confusion between the two measures.  I look to this one to go down, possibly by a substantial margin.

Amendment V has had a LOT of out of state money spent on it’s behalf. But I think the second of Slick Rick Weiland’s measures (after Amendment T being the first) will go down. Hiding party label is not a popular concept in red state South Dakota, and word is they haven’t been chasing after the issue west river very hard. If it’s even east river, as the votes move West River, the voters should come in and effectively kill it.

Initiated Measure 21 is my lone toss up.  Midway among the ballot measures, only those concerned about it will be casting a “yea” vote, and I don’t know that the yes side effectively made their case before the floodgates of advertising opened up against it. With ads on either side saying No on U, Yes on 21, as well as Yes on U, No on 21, I think voters might be apt to just kill them both.

Even before the advertising started in earnest, polling such as Nielson Brothers were showing only 39% for, and 26% against, with 35% undecided. Once the No on Initiated Measure 21 groups got moving, I suspect numbers started moving against it in such a way that there’s no clear indication how the vote is going to go tonight.  Whatever it is, I think it’s going to be close.

Initiated Measure 22, the bill to handout taxpayer dollars to politicians has had a lot of money thrown at it from either side. But both being down ballot, having state leaders against it, and bearing the title of “CREATE A PUBLICLY FUNDED CAMPAIGN FINANCE PROGRAM” as part of the measure, I think it’s toast.

Despite it’s cute advertising, Initiated Measure 23 is going to go down hard. You can take take that to the bank.

And RL 19 and 20 are going to go down, because people have lost interest at this point, and neither have had good reasons noted to vote for them.

Agree?  Disagree? The floor is yours.

Jeez… the more I look at it, the more I think the election in South Dakota is going to be an electoral disaster for Democrats.

District	Race	Name	Party	Predictions	Notes
District 01	State Representative	Steven D. McCleerey	DEM	Dem Over
District 01	State Representative	Susan Wismer	DEM	Dem Over
District 02	State Representative	John Graham	DEM		Graham against 2 incumbents. GOP should do well.
District 02	State Representative	Lana Greenfield	REP	GOP
District 02	State Representative	Burt Tulson	REP	GOP
District 03	State Representative	Nikki Bootz	DEM		This was never a race.
District 03	State Representative	Brooks Briscoe	DEM
District 03	State Representative	Drew Dennert	REP	GOP
District 03	State Representative	Daniel Kaiser	REP	GOP
District 04	State Representative	Matt Rosdahl	DEM		Democrats didn’t run a race. At all.
District 04	State Representative	Peggy Schuelke	DEM
District 04	State Representative	John Mills	REP	GOP
District 04	State Representative	Jason W. Kettwig	REP	GOP
District 05	State Representative	Michele Alvine	DEM
District 05	State Representative	Charles “Chuck” Haan	IND
District 05	State Representative	Hugh M. Bartels	REP	GOP
District 05	State Representative	Nancy York	REP	GOP
District 06	State Representative	Clara Hart	DEM		Latterell and Otten will win. This is not a contest. Hart was loaded with cash, but I don’t know if it was evident.
District 06	State Representative	Kyle Rogers	DEM
District 06	State Representative	Isaac Latterell	REP	GOP
District 06	State Representative	Herman Otten	REP	GOP
District 07	State Representative	Linda A. Brandt	DEM		Reed will win, and Hawley will win. It’s the Brookings way for the State’s biggest swing district.
District 07	State Representative	Spencer Hawley	DEM	Dem
District 07	State Representative	Tim Reed	REP	GOP
District 08	State Representative	Kory Rawstern	DEM		Word is Unger is running stronger than expected, but I expect Heinemann as incumbent to be safe.
District 08	State Representative	Jason Unger	DEM
District 08	State Representative	Leslie Heinemann	REP	GOP
District 08	State Representative	Mathew Wollmann	REP	GOP
District 09	State Representative	Mark G. Guthmiller	DEM		This is a toss-up district. Saba spent money, but Clark is well thought of.
District 09	State Representative	Michael Saba	DEM	Toss up
District 09	State Representative	Michael Clark	REP	Toss up
District 09	State Representative	Wayne H. Steinhauer	REP	GOP
District 10	State Representative	Dean Kurtz	DEM		This District will remain strong GOP.
District 10	State Representative	Paul Vanderlinde	DEM
District 10	State Representative	Don Haggar	REP	GOP
District 10	State Representative	Steven Haugaard	REP	GOP
District 11	State Representative	Leona Weiland	DEM
District 11	State Representative	Paul Schipper	DEM
District 11	State Representative	Chris Karr	REP	GOP
District 11	State Representative	Mark K Willadsen	REP	GOP
District 12	State Representative	Bob Benson	DEM
District 12	State Representative	Susan Randall	DEM
District 12	State Representative	Arch Beal	REP	GOP
District 12	State Representative	Greg Jamison	REP	GOP
District 13	State Representative	P. James Eckhoff Jr	DEM		.
District 13	State Representative	Ellee Spawn	DEM
District 13	State Representative	G. Mark Mickelson	REP	GOP
District 13	State Representative	Sue Lucas-Peterson	REP	GOP
District 14	State Representative	Valerie Loudenback	DEM		LaPlante was a good substitution, but Holmes & Zikmund are good campaigners. Advantage GOP.
District 14	State Representative	Michael LaPlante	DEM
District 14	State Representative	Tom Holmes	REP	GOP
District 14	State Representative	Larry P. Zikmund	REP	GOP
District 15	State Representative	Jamie Smith	DEM		Leggett has had a go around before, and ready to go this year. Myers apparently moved to Minn.
District 15	State Representative	Karen Soli	DEM	Dem
District 15	State Representative	Eric Leggett	IND	Indy
District 15	State Representative	Mike Myers	IND
District 16	State Representative	Ted Curry	DEM		I don’t have a good enough read, but my people down there indicate Tornberg hasn’t run half the race she did last time.
District 16	State Representative	Ann Tornberg	DEM
District 16	State Representative	Kevin D. Jensen	REP	GOP
District 16	State Representative	David L. Anderson	REP	GOP
District 17	State Representative	Ray Ring	DEM	Dem	The incumbents will be tough to beat.
District 17	State Representative	Mark Winegar	DEM
District 17	State Representative	Debbie Pease	REP
District 17	State Representative	Nancy Rasmussen	REP	GOP
District 18	State Representative	David Allen	DEM		Hunhoff & Stevens will dominate the race.
District 18	State Representative	Peter Rossiter	DEM
District 18	State Representative	Jean M. Hunhoff	REP	GOP
District 18	State Representative	Mike Stevens	REP	GOP
District 19	State Representative	Melissa Mentele	DEM
District 19	State Representative	Kent S. Peterson	REP	GOP
District 19	State Representative	Kyle Schoenfish	REP	GOP
District 20	State Representative	Lance Carson	REP	GOP
District 20	State Representative	Tona Rozum	REP	GOP
District 21	State Representative	Juile Bartling	DEM	Strong Dem	Another one for each party here. Even the Republicans like Julie (possibly because she votes with them on many issues).
District 21	State Representative	Gary Burrus	DEM
District 21	State Representative	Lee Qualm	REP	Strong GOP
District 22	State Representative	Carmen Dannenbring	DEM
District 22	State Representative	Joan Wollschlager	DEM
District 22	State Representative	Roger Chase	REP	GOP
District 22	State Representative	Bob Glanzer	REP	GOP
District 23	State Representative	John A. Lake	REP	GOP Over
District 23	State Representative	Spencer Gosch	REP	GOP Over
District 24	State Representative	Mary Duvall	REP	GOP Over
District 24	State Representative	Tim Rounds	REP	GOP Over
District 25	State Representative	David Haagenson	DEM		I want Pischke to win, because he’s a good guy, and a good candidate. But you can’t always get what you want.
District 25	State Representative	Dan Ahlers	DEM	Toss Up
District 25	State Representative	Roger Hunt	REP	GOP
District 25	State Representative	Tom Pischke	REP	Toss Up
District 26A	State Representative	Shawn Bordeaux	DEM	Dem Over
District 26B	State Representative	James Schaefer	REP	GOP Over
District 27	State Representative	Jim Bradford	DEM	Dem	This is tough territory for the GOP, and conventional wisdom is that Liz May’s luck may have run out.
District 27	State Representative	Red Dawn Foster	DEM	Toss Up
District 27	State Representative	Steve Livermont	REP
District 27	State Representative	Elizabeth May	REP	Toss Up
District 28A	State Representative	Oren Lesmeister	DEM	Dem Over
District 28B	State Representative	Sam Marty	REP	GOP Over
District 29	State Representative	Thomas J. Brunner	REP	GOP Over
District 29	State Representative	Larry Rhoden	REP	GOP Over
District 30	State Representative	Sandy Arseneault	DEM		Dems are not elected in this District, but the county extension officer might give you a dollar for each tail you bring in. This race is over.
District 30	State Representative	Kristine Ina Winter	DEM
District 30	State Representative	Julie Frye-Mueller	REP	GOP
District 30	State Representative	Tim R. Goodwin	REP	GOP
District 31	State Representative	Timothy R. Johns	REP	GOP Over
District 31	State Representative	Charles M. Turbiville	REP	GOP Over
District 32	State Representative	Nik Aberle	DEM		This race is over.
District 32	State Representative	Susan Kelts	DEM
District 32	State Representative	Sean McPherson	REP	GOP
District 32	State Representative	Kristin A. Conzet	REP	GOP
District 33	State Representative	Jim Hadd	DEM		This race is over.
District 33	State Representative	Ethan Marsland	DEM
District 33	State Representative	Taffy Howard	REP	GOP
District 33	State Representative	David Johnson	REP	GOP
District 34	State Representative	Steve Stenson	DEM		This race is over.
District 34	State Representative	Dan Dryden/Dave Lust	REP	GOP
District 34	State Representative	Craig Tieszen	REP	GOP
District 35	State Representative	Dave Freytag	DEM		This race is over.
District 35	State Representative	Michael T Hanson	DEM
District 35	State Representative	Blaine “Chip” Campbell	REP	GOP
District 35	State Representative	Lynne DiSanto	REP	GOP

I don’t see any good news in the card for Democrats, as Republicans continue to maintain what would normally be impossibly high numbers of legislators.

After going through the past 2 legislative sessions with a count of 58 Republicans to 12 Democrats, in taking the thousand foot view of this years’ house races, I’m coming up with a count of 57 Republican Seats, 9 Democrats, 3 toss ups, and 1 Independent (Kudos to Eric Leggett, whom I hear has really gone after it this year).

If we give all the toss-up races to Democrats… that would leave them at 12, with Republicans losing 1 seat to an independent who would probably vote with them on most issues anyway.

Even if the GOP loses one or two that I’m counting in our column at the moment, there’s not a lot for Democrats to cheer about. They’ve taken their dismal number of legislators, and managed to maintain it.

Has the media called the election for Thune and Noem yet? What’s the hold up?

🙂

Marsy’s Law To Hold Election Night Party In Sioux Falls 

(Pierre, SD)—The Marsy’s Law for South Dakota campaign is holding an election night party in Sioux Falls on Tuesday, November 8.  The event will be held in the Revir Ballroom at the Downtown Hilton Garden Inn located at 201 E. 8^th St, Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The public is invited.  The event will start at 7:00pm and last until 11:00pm.

Representatives from the Marsy’s Law campaign, including prosecutors, victims and victim advocates will be available for press interviews.

Representatives will also be available for phone interviews at 605-280-7767.

“We are humbled by the outpouring of support we have received across the state,” said Jason Glodt, former Assistant Attorney General and State Director for Marsy’s Law for South Dakota. “Volunteers have been working tirelessly across the state for months asking people to give equal rights to crime victims. On Election Day, we have the opportunity to make history for victim rights in South Dakota!” 

###

As of Friday, almost 40 million Americans have already voted and there will be roughly 80 million votes cast tomorrow. In other words, the election will very soon be over except for counting the ballots.  Within 48 hours, this thread will become moot.

According to realclearpolitics.com, average of all polls, Hillary leads Trump by roughly 3% with roughly 7% who are undecided.  This translates into a Hillary Clinton lead in the Electoral College Votes 301 to 237. 270 Electoral Votes needed to win. 269 Electoral Votes is a tie.

In other words, for Trump to win, he has to win states which total 33 electoral votes currently in the Clinton column (actually 32 as it would be likely the House would elect Trump if there is a tie).

Going into the election right now, Clinton has in the bank 203 Electoral Votes vs. 164 for Trump (“in the bank” is shorthand for leading in the polls by more than 5%).

The following is my cheat sheet. If a “Likely Winner” loses a state I’ve allocated to them, they must pick it up somewhere else.

• If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, Virginia or Michigan, she must win Florida. If she loses two of these three, call the election for Trump.
• If Trump loses Ohio or Georgia, he would have to win Virginia and New Mexico or Virginia and Colorado.   As winning Virginia is unlikely with Senator Kaine on the ticket, a loss in Ohio or Georgia calls the race for Clinton.
• If Clinton wins North Carolina and New Hampshire, Florida likely won’t matter.
• If Florida matters, we will have another infamous Florida re-count.

State	Polls Close (CST)	Electoral Votes	Likely Winner	Electoral College Votes	Comments
Maine CD #2	5:00 p.m.	1	DJT	203-165	DJT losing here could foreshadow NH
Maine Statewide	5:00 p.m.	2	HRC	205-165	HRC losing here could foreshadow NH
Virginia	6:00 p.m.	13	HRC	218-165	Sen. Kaine on ticket makes this likely HRC
Georgia	6:00 p.m.	16	DJT	218-181	DJT losing here foreshadows NC
Ohio	6:30 p.m.	18	DJT	218-199	Trump been holding lead for weeks
North Carolina	6:30 p.m.	15			Virtually tied
Florida	7:00 p.m.	29			Virtually tied
New Hampshire	7:00 p.m.	4			Virtually tied
Pennsylvania	7:00 p.m.	20	HRC	238-199	If Trump wins, he will win the election
Michigan	7:00 p.m.	16	HRC	254-199	If Trump wins, he will win the election
Iowa	7:30 p.m.	6	DJT	254-205	Trump been holding lead for weeks
Colorado	8:00 p.m.	9	HRC	263-205	Trump needs Independent candidates to do well
New Mexico	8:00 p.m.	5	HRC	268-205	Unpredictable with NM former Gov. on ballot
Arizona	8:00 p.m.	11	DJT	268-216	Trump loss foreshadows Nevada and NM
Nevada	9:00 p.m.	6		268-216	Virtually tied

There are some very interesting linkages because of similarities of the respective states.

• If Trump loses Maine CD#2, it becomes likely he will lose New Hampshire. Similarly, if Clinton loses Maine Statewide, it becomes likely she will lose New Hampshire. Either one could be enough to tip the scales one way or another so the election could be “over” before our polls close barring an upset in New Mexico.
• If Clinton loses Virginia, she will lose North Carolina. Similarly, if Trump loses Georgia, he will lose North Carolina.
• If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, she could very possibly lose Michigan and Wisconsin where it would be a run-away.
• If Trump wins New Mexico, he will likely win Nevada and a New Mexico win would negate a loss of Maine CD#2 and New Hampshire.

As you can see, Trump has to hold ALL STATES he leads by 3% or more and run the table on the states that are virtually tied (Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada). If he runs the table but loses just Maine CD#1, we have a tied Electoral College and the House will select the next President of the United States.

The good news is Trump doesn’t have to win a state he is currently behind by more than 3% to win the election. The bad news is he has to win all the four closest states (FL, NC, NH, & NV).  In short, odds of Trump winning are the same as flipping a coin twice and both landing on heads.

The American body politic is deeply divided with roughly 45% on the liberal side and 45% on the conservative side.  There is about 5% which lean each way.  It is my opinion that this election will be decided by the very middle 5% of the American body politic.  These people usually confound the pollsters as they move generally in block on Election Day which explains Obama beating polls in 2008 and 2012 and Bush in 2004 or Reagan in 1980.

My gut:  Watch Maine CD#2 & Maine Statewide. If both go one way, I think it will foreshadow the winner.  That said, all of America is watching to see what happens in Florida.  Been there and done that for the last four elections.  Might as well keep it up.

P.S.  Sorry about the format.  Did the best I could in the time I had.  Not the graphics wiz Pat is.