NEW NFIB SURVEY: Small Business Optimism Increases in May
Taxes are now small business owners’ single most important problem

PIERRE, SD (June 10, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by three points in May to 98.8, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. Expected business conditions and sales expectations contributed the most to the rise in the index. The Uncertainty Index rose two points from April to 94. Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points from April and ranking as the top problem. The last time taxes were ranked as the top single most important problem was in December 2020.

“Although optimism recovered slightly in May, uncertainty is still high among small business owners,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While the economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty are resolved, owners reported more positive expectations on business conditions and sales growth.”

“South Dakota’s small businesses are experiencing a slight boost in optimism, particularly regarding sales expectations,” said NFIB South Dakota State Director Jason Glodt. “Yet, the concern over labor quality and taxes continues to affect the overall outlook. Lawmakers in Washington, D.C. and Pierre must prioritize small business solutions, like making the Small Business Tax Deduction permanent, to bolster Main Street and allow our communities to grow and thrive.”

Key findings include:

• A net 1% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in May, up 7 points from April and the highest reading since August 2022. This was the largest monthly increase in the survey’s history.
• The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 10 points from April to a net 25% (seasonally adjusted).
• The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 11 points from April to a net 10% (seasonally adjusted). This component contributed the most to the Optimism Index’s improvement.
• Twenty-two percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, up four points from April and the highest reading of this year.
• The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as the single most important problem for business fell three points from April to 16%.
• Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from April.
• When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 14% reported excellent (up one point), and 55% reported good (down one point). Twenty-eight percent reported the health of their business was fair (up one point) and 4% reported poor (unchanged).

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 34% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in May, unchanged from April. Of the 55% of owners hiring or trying to hire in May, 86% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 12% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down one point from April.

Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose one point in May to 9%.

Seasonally adjusted, a net 26% reported raising compensation, down seven points from April. A seasonally adjusted net 20% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up three points from April.

Fifty-six percent of owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down two points from April and the lowest reading of this year.

Of those making expenditures, 40% reported spending on new equipment, 26% acquired vehicles, and 15% improved or expanded facilities. Ten percent spent money on new fixtures and furniture and 5% acquired new buildings or land for expansion.

In May, the percent of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem remained at 9% for the fifth consecutive month. A net negative 13% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down five points from April.

The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains was unchanged from April at a net negative 5%, seasonally adjusted. Not seasonally adjusted, 14% reported increases in stocks and 16% reported reductions. A net 1% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in May, up seven points from April and the highest reading since August 2022.

Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% plan price hikes in May, up three points from April. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices was unchanged from April at a net 25%, seasonally adjusted. Unadjusted, 10% of owners reported lower average selling prices and 38% reported higher average prices.

The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 26% (seasonally adjusted) in May, five points worse than in April. Among owners reporting lower profits, 36% blamed weaker sales, 13% cited the rise in the cost of materials, 11% cited usual seasonal change, and 8% cited labor costs. For owners reporting higher profits, 52% credited sales volumes, 27% cited usual seasonal change, and 8% cited higher selling prices.

Five percent of owners reported that financing and interest rates were their top business problem in May, up two points from April. Twenty-five percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down one point from April. A net 4% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down one point from April. A net 7% reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, up one point from April.

Ten percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up one point from April. Despite the increase, this remains a low reading historically.

Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points from April and ranking as the top problem. The last time taxes were ranked as the top single most important problem was in December 2020, when it tied for first with labor quality. The percent of small business owners reporting government regulations and red tape as their single most important problem remained at 9%. Four percent reported competition from large businesses as their single most important problem, down three points from April.

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in May 2025.

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For over 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven. Since our founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses, and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.

(One of Brandei’s Constituents sent this over.)

It looks like the all-important landlord endorsement is in from State Representative Brandei Schaefbauer, as she endorses the man she pays rent to for Governor:

Of course, don’t forget, she also has a tendency to represent his interests in the legislature as well:

In case you forgot about that one, you can review it here.

Guest Column: Happy Father’s Day
Thomas E. Simmons

I remember the first time I appreciated Ronald Reagan. It was a smidgen over forty-five years ago. I was watching the news with my dad. I was twelve. My dad was forty-four. The Republican presidential primaries were heating up.

In February of 1980, Reagan was trying to best Bush in the primaries. New Hampshire’s was a key primary and Bush had just won Iowa. Reagan was the underdog. A panel-style debate, attended by Bush (along with Bob Doyle, Howard Baker, John Anderson, and Phil Crane), and financed by Reagan’s campaign, was scheduled in a New Hampshire auditorium. Before the debate could begin, there was a dust-up about something and someone instructed the sound man (a Mr. Green) to mute Reagan’s microphone.

Regan stood up. He was vigorous and frustrated, yet in control of his temper, his words, and his actions. He said in an expressive, assertive, and offended voice: “I am paying for this microphone, Mr. Green.” The auditorium erupted in the applause of Reagan’s supporters. And the microphone stayed on.

As a kid, I didn’t understand who had paid for the microphone or anything else about the context of the sound bite. Most contemporary voters were probably equally uninformed. (I’ve since watched the full debate.) What I could see even as a twelve-year-old, however, was the tenacity and the measured leadership that Reagan had modeled.

It was a small thing, but small things are not nothing. Indeed, small things can be quite revealing of a person’s character.

Reagan had stood up for himself and his campaign respectfully, articulately, and effectively. He had done the right thing at the right time and in the right way. He was clear-headed and assertive. His spur-of-the-minute performance evidenced a model disposition toward virtuous actions. In my young brain, I connected those predispositions of Regan on display in the sound bite with the effective predispositions for leading the free world.

I wasn’t wrong. Reagan had what it took to lead the country and the world as well. He had a fine moral compass. He was an august statesman who didn’t take himself too seriously, though he took his county and its moral compass very seriously indeed. He was a man of generosity, sincerity, courage, and unbending loyalty to his wife, Nancy.

He had gravitas. He had a sense of humor. He had vision. He was someone a young boy and his father could look up to.

The memory I treasure of this television moment also underscores my reminiscence; that of an decades-old impression that two television viewers had shared, father and son. I was too young to yet choose a party or even conceptualize between right and left. But on that day, my dad and I were both in agreement that Reagan could stand up and fight, with dignity, for what he thought was right. We both liked what we saw and we shared a common conviction.

We both witnessed the same thing on the TV screen: A man who cared deeply about what was just and what was unjust, a man who could distinguish between right and wrong, and a man with the vigor and tenacity to frame a message and convince others of its rightness. A virtuous herald. A man with a vision of the country’s leadership role on the world stage. A man we could respect, even if we wouldn’t endorse everything he said or did.

I was reminded of the New Hampshire auditorium event when I heard, more than four decades later, that Dennis Quaid would be playing Ronald Reagan in a major Hollywood picture. Quaid, in an interview with Dr. Jordan Peterson, conceded that he was initially reluctant to play Reagan because, inter alia, he didn’t think he looked much like the former president.

But the jawlines match. The tenacity and clear-eyed vision of what’s being confronted do too; those characteristics align between the actor and the president he played. Quaid was well-cast.

My father died in May of 2006 on the airplane that was carrying him back to Rapid City. He was returning from the Mayo Clinic where the inevitability of his advanced cancer had been confirmed. He’d been diagnosed just ten days earlier and given ten days to live. He died in the evening somewhere up high in the air over South Dakota. His doctor’s mortality prediction of ten days had been correct – almost to the hour.

Happy Father’s Day, Dad.

To see the microphone in question from the New Hampshire debate, head to Simi Valley, California. It’s on display at the Reagan Presidential Library. Someday, I hope to do so myself and rekindle those memories of my father once again.

Thomas E. Simmons
University of South Dakota Knudson School of Law
Vermilion, SD

Thune: Democrats Are Disconnected and Proud of It

“Republicans are going to deliver – no matter how hard Democrats fight to stand in the way.”

WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) today delivered the following remarks on the Senate floor:

Click here to watch the video.

A Pierre teenager has announced that he will be running for Governor on the Democrat Ticket in 2026, according to multiple sources. In the Dakota Scout version of the story, it appears that state Democrats are someone ambivalent about the whole thing:

Robert Arnold has a double major, a student ID, and a vision.

The 19-year-old Dakota State University student announced he’s running for governor in 2026—as a Democrat. If he gets on the ballot, he’ll be the youngest serious candidate for governor in U.S. history. The state Constitution has a requirement that a governor or lieutenant governor be at least 21 years old.

and..

Arnold is not blind to the odds.

“The state party told me they had someone else in mind,” he said. Arnold said he didn’t know who that was.

Read the entire story here.

Governor Rhoden Leads Trade Mission to Israel

 PIERRE, SD – This week, Governor Larry Rhoden is leading a business-driven trade mission to Israel alongside South Dakota Trade. By the end of his first full day in the Holy Land, he will have met with President Isaac Herzog, Speaker of the Knesset Amir Ohana, and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar of Israel. You can find photos of his meetings with President Herzog and Foreign Minister Sa’ar here and here, respectively.

“South Dakota continues to be an economic leader – both nationally and internationally. Israel has been a key partner in our state’s economic success, and I was honored to meet with the Israeli leaders to strengthen our relationship,” said Governor Larry Rhoden. “By working together with countries across the globe, we will keep South Dakota Open for Opportunity for generations to come.”

The Governor is leading a business delegation made up of defense and agriculture businesses that are actively seeking sales in the Israeli market.

“This mission is 100% business-driven,” said Jesse Fonkert, President & CEO of South Dakota Trade. “We had a successful mission in November of last year and are back because our businesses are generating real opportunities that have already produced millions in sales and a robust pipeline for even more expansion.”

Governor Rhoden also conducted a wreath-laying ceremony at Yad Vashem, the World Holocaust Remembrance Center. You can find a photo of that ceremony here. Governor Rhoden also saw sections of the memorial specific to the Mauthausen concentration camp, which his father helped liberate near the end of World War II.

President Trump’s newly confirmed Ambassador, Mike Huckabee, will host a reception to honor the Governor’s visit.

Governor Rhoden also visited the Gandel Rehabilitation Center at Hadassah’s Mt. Scopus Hospital to meet with recovering soldiers who have been injured since the start of the war. This stop was coordinated by South Dakota Jewish community leader Carol Rosenthal, who serves as the Chair of Hadassah International. You can find a photo of the visit here.

“The Gandel Rehabilitation Center is a beacon of hope that serves as a home where the wounded come to gradually regain their lives through physical and emotional rehabilitation,” said Carol Rosenthal. “I’d like to thank Governor Rhoden for visiting Hadassah during his time in Israel. I’m confident that he will see first-hand the resilience of the Israeli people and that our Jewish friends and neighbors here in South Dakota will never forget this statement of support.”

Governor Rhoden is joined by the Governor’s Office of Economic Development Deputy Commissioner Joe Fiala, who attended the first trade mission to Israel in November 2024. Governor Rhoden and the trade delegation are hosting, a “Doing Business in South Dakota” seminar that focused on recruiting foreign direct investment into the state.

“South Dakota was the first state to bring a trade mission to Israel after the horrific attacks on October 7, 2023,” said Deputy Commissioner Joe Fiala. “Being there in person demonstrated our commitment to building relationships with the Israeli people. Our trade missions have created new friendships, stronger business ties, and exciting opportunities for our state’s economy.”

Rabbi Mendel Alperowitz of Sioux Falls, SD, is also joining Governor Rhoden and the business delegates in Israel.

“Governor Rhoden has been a true friend to the Jewish community here in South Dakota, and I am incredibly grateful he included me on this visit to the Holy Land,” said Rabbi Alperowitz.

Trade missions to the UK/Ireland and Canada are currently being planned for later in 2025. Interested businesses should reach out to Rachael Weiland from South Dakota Trade at rachael.weiland@southdakotatrade.com.

South Dakota Trade is a 501(c)(6) association that navigates international trade for South Dakota. The Association has offices in Sioux Falls and Rapid City. For additional information, please visit www.southdakotatrade.com.

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Attorney General Jackley Announces Sioux Falls Man Sentenced to Jail, Restitution For Embezzlement from Lincoln County Police Organization

PIERRE, S.D. — South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley announces a Sioux Falls man has been sentenced to 90 days in jail and ordered to pay $3,507.20 in restitution after earlier pleading guilty to one count of Grand Theft by exercising unauthorized control over the funds of the Lincoln County Fraternal Order of Police Union.

Matthew Wilson, 39, was sentenced Thursday in Lincoln County Circuit Court.  Electronic monitoring was authorized for the 90-day sentence. The state had requested the defendant be sentenced to 180 days in the county jail.

“This defendant violated the trust of the organization and its members,” said Attorney General Jackley. “Thank you to the investigators and prosecutors who brought closure to this case.”

The theft occurred between July, 2024 and September, 2024. Value of the property involved is between $2,500 and $5,000.

The South Dakota Division of Criminal Investigation (DCI) investigated the case, and the Attorney General’s Office prosecuted the case.

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Stop the presses. Apparently, Toby Doeden has been endorsed by literally, South Dakota’s most reviled legislator, State Representative Phil Jensen:

Toby says “His support shows the depth and breadth of our coalition,” and further referring to Phil, he “could not be happier to have his support.”  What kind of support is Toby wrapping his arms around?

I seem to recall detailing Phil’s history of dragging the GOP down when he ran (and ultimately withdrew) to be the SDGOP’s National Committeeman:

During Vietnam, Phil was a draft-dodger:

“I was drafted,” Jensen said. “And I filed for conscientious objector and I was going through a process of looking for alternative service. And then Nixon cancelled the drafting power before I got established.”

Read that here.

He’s been a Member of the far-right Oath Keepers Militia

“In 2014 I was sitting at my desk in the Senate chambers and I had read some information about the Oath Keepers. I took an oath to uphold the Constitution and the South Dakota Constitution, and it seemed like a good group of guys to belong to.”

Read that here.

He brought a bill that would’ve made it justifiable homicide to actually kill a doctor who performed abortions.

Phil says that he believes to be OK for businesses to deny service on the basis of race or religion:

While the bill was killed, Jensen defended it to the Journal as legislation that would ensure businesses have the freedom to choose their clientele. He also said that businesses should also have the right to choose based on race and religion – whether that’s right or wrong, he said, can be fairly addressed by the free market, not the government.

Read that there.

Let’s not forget his skills in phrenology.

Speaking over the phone on the way to Pierre on Tuesday, Jensen recalled when one of his constituents told him he witnessed “dozens of South Americans” fleeing a white bus parked near downtown Rapid City.

“He knew they were South Americans,” Jensen said, “because they had different skull structures and skin tones from Mexicans.”

Read it here.

And that was before Phil was stripped of his Education Committee Vice-Chairmanship, as House Speaker Jon Hansen lacked the will to remove him entirely from the education committee for his attempt to strip the Huron School District of public funding, because he wanted to send a message:

 A firestorm of criticism Wednesday forced a South Dakota lawmaker to lose a committee vice chairmanship and withdraw his bill to defund the Huron School District, which he filed in reaction to a tip about the district’s bathroom policy.

and..

Rob Monson, executive director of School Administrators of South Dakota, released a statement on social media saying he and Steinhoff had met with House leaders and had requested that Jensen not only lose his vice chairmanship but also be removed from the committee. Monson said Jensen is “unfit to serve on that committee,” and later said there was still “ongoing discussion” about a removal.

and..

Monson and Ahlers described Jensen’s bill as part of a broader attack on public education this legislative session.

Read the entire story here.

With a background like that, which government job do you think Toby will plan on slotting Phil Jensen into to thank him for his support if he were to be elected? Secretary of Education? Or Division of Human Rights?

Sad news out of Rapid City. Former Republican State Senator Royal “Mac” McCracken passed away last Friday at the age of 83.

Mac in his professional life worked for US West, starting as a lineman in the 1960s, eventually rising to the level of Director of Public Affairs for Northwestern Bell (USWest) with the company out of Rapid City, until his retirement in 2000, when he ran and served as Senator representing Rapid City from 2000-2008.

McCracken was a long-time carrier of water for the elephant, and served as Assistant Majority Leader & Majority Whip in the South Dakota Senate during his legislative career, as well as serving on the legislature’s executive board.

Memorial services will be held 3:00 pm Saturday, June 28, 2025 at South Canyon Lutheran Church in Rapid City.

Providing Clarity
By Rep. Dusty Johnson
June 6, 2025

BIG News

Earlier this week, the Department of Justice arrested two Chinese nationals for smuggling an agroterrorism weapon, funded by the Chinese Communist Party, into the United States. I’ve been sounding the alarm for years that the Chinese Communist Party seeks to undermine America’s food supply and national security – this weapon could have devastated both. If these individuals are found guilty, they must be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

As a member of the Select Committee on China, I have seen and heard many ways China is undermining U.S. interests. We’ve been working in Congress to identify and address these concerns to protect America from the malign influence of the Chinese Communist Party.

BIG Idea

Blockchain technology will transform and empower every industry, much sooner than most people realize. The House Agriculture Committee held a hearing on my bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. The United States has the potential to be a leader in this space and the CLARITY Act establishes a much-needed regulatory framework to foster investment and innovation. My bill will give digital asset markets the clarity they need to thrive, protect consumers, and foster innovation.

Click here or the image above for Johnson’s remarks

BIG Update

Attendees at this year’s Boys State in Aberdeen had some great questions for me when I visited with them earlier this week. We discussed the deficit, the threat of China’s growing influence in the U.S., how to get involved in government, and the importance of volunteering.

Johnson with Boys State attendees

I was able to thank nine more Vietnam-era veterans while in Aberdeen during a Vietnam veteran pinning ceremony this week. These veterans didn’t get the welcome home they deserved, and I was honored to thank them for their service to the United States.

Johnson with Vietnam-era veterans in Aberdeen

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