I just received this press release in my in-box. Interesting. I’m not familiar with the polling firm, but we can add them to the list of political prognosticators. – PP
NEWS RELEASE
For Immediate Release: April 6, 2018
Kristi Noem Leads by 11 in South Dakota Governor Race
Washington, D.C. – Hamlin County native Kristi Noem has opened up an 11-point lead in the Republican Primary for Governor over Attorney General Marty Jackley. Noem leads with 44% compared to Jackley’s 33% as both candidates appear to be well liked by South Dakota Republican primary voters. With early voting beginning in just two weeks it appears Noem has a significant advantage headed into the June 5th GOP Primary.
“Kristi Noem appears to be doing a great job of communicating her message to South Dakotans,” said Kyle Robertson, President of Rockbridge Strategy. “Marty Jackley’s only path to turning the race around before June 5th may be through a negative ad campaign, but even that is a risky strategy as one would assume his image would take a hit.”
While Noem leads 44% – 33%, there are 23% of voters who remain undecided. Among undecided voters, 68% have a favorable view of President Donald Trump. That bodes well for Kristi Noem, as she is doing particularly well among pro-Trump voters, earning 51% to Jackley’s 27%, a 24-point advantage. Both candidates should be pleased with their images at this point in the race. Noem has a 68% favorable and 18% unfavorable rating while Jackley trails with a 59% favorable and 19% unfavorable.
“Noem’s lead may force Jackley into a decision on whether or not to go negative on the airwaves down the final stretch,” added Robertson. “Jackley’s team will have a tough decision to make.”
The poll was conducted using IVR technology by Advantage, Inc. on Wednesday, April 4th and included a sample size of 500 likely GOP Primary voters with a 2.9% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval. Advantage, Inc. is a widely respected voter contact firm with decades of experience in polling from local to national campaigns. The survey’s questionnaire and crosstabs are available to the media upon request.
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Looks like someone paid for a fake poll. Google Kyle Robertson or Rockridge Strategy. Doesn’t look legit at all.
He’s worked on Pense’s campaign in the House, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder, and the NRCC just to name a few of the more familiar. It seems like this might be legit and not that far out of the realm of possibilities.
Kristi has to have close to 100% name recognition, she’s frequently seen with Trump at press events, Ag background, and more…
Jackley is a relative unknown who’s touted some endorsements… but who is he really? His stances aren’t known like Kristi’s.
I still plan on voting for Sutton, but this isn’t surprising. It’ll be Sutton vs Noem- and that race will be close as well.
Jackley can counter by releasing a poll.
I hope he is doing better than this.
Great poll! Noem is a great candidate and the most qualified to help MAGA!!! If Jackley had a poll showing him even CLOSE to winning he would release!!!
Only someone who thinks the Ding Dong School that is the SD GOP would venture to use the word “Great” to describe Kristi Cowgirl. She hasn’t accomplished jack in DC aside from–after running on the continuous mantra of vowing to repeal and replace Obutthead Care–jumps on the Cryin’ and whinin’ John Boehner money wagon that could’t or would not even try to get that done. Ha, ha, big joke on us. She blows through the political spectrum like a fart in the wind, and further,she has the WORST constituent response record since Josef Stalin,. AND. now that she has gotten a taste of that big wind-tower industry lobby money she’s all in for ramming more of these monstrosities down the throats of SD citizens who find them abhorrent but who still must subsidize the wind energy scam with federal subsidies paid out of our tax dollars. Really “great” huh? But lobby money talks, and good government walks–THAT is the lesson that Kristi Cheerleader learned in the big city. She didn’t learn anything else, however. Having her holding the single House seat has been like having zero representation in DC. I wish she would shut her pie-hole and disappear. BTW– its a bogus poll. Not reliable.
Glad to see this. Noem is far more qualified and personable than Jackley. She’ll be a phenomenal governor.
Too bad she is not as smart as Jackley.
Who paid for the poll? I highly doubt Rockbridge is just doing pro-bono polling of Governors races just for kicks
Kristi Noem’s Campaign events look like Hillary Clinton rallies. No one is there.
This poll is essentially an ad paid for by the Noem camp, since they feel all momentum shifting away from them. Sad!
Among the activists she is hurting. Among actual primary voters who dont go to rallies ie the Mike Rounds voters she seems to be doing ok.
Marty needs to show more fight than she is
Where is that information that says it was paid for by Kristi’s campaign?
Would love to see your proof- otherwise you’re just deflecting possible bad news for Jackley.
Careful- your bias is showing-
It wasn’t paid for by Kristi’s campaign. This was a favor done for her by a DC establishment that loves her.
until rounds knocked out his rivals, mark barnett had the best rallies too.
#fakepoll
It’s hard to believe.
If it was the truth Noem would release her internals and if jackley had a lead he would also.
This is a close race that will be margin of error until they are both on TV for a while.
Jackley should release his own poll to show the numbers. These 3rd party polls are not building confidence.
This tracks with what I heard last week from a GOP insider: each candidate has a poll showing them about 12 points up on their opponent. If this is true, then Jackley’s poll should be announced shortly.
It looks like this guy is a buddy of Justin Brassell, and if so I’d imagine Brassell asked him to do the poll and release it. That’s smart – having it come from a third party is more credible than coming from the campaign itself.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that it isn’t accurate however. It could be that Noem is up 44-33 and wants people to know that.
I’d be a little concerned if I were Noem that she is 68 favorable and 18 unfavorable. This is only Republicans and she has been our congresswoman for 8 years. MJ being 59-19, a total of 78, means that nearly a quarter of voters still don’t know MJ well enough to have an opinion – that’s an opportunity for him.
One more thought – it will be interesting to see now if Noem goes negative, as many people have speculated she might. Why would she if she is ahead?
Noem has been particularly hard on jackley. That’s why I dont believe it.
Buddy or not it’s in all the newspapers. Google it.
It’s being reported by one paper in Pierre and one in Watertown. It may get picked up by others, but the real news is that some obscure DC polling firm is pushing fake polls in a South Dakota GOP primary. The real news here is that the DC establishment is pulling strings for Brasell and Noem.
Aberdeen American news, Mitchell Daily Republic…
When do we see numbers on Krebs Johnson? I’m assuming Krebs is up or we’d see Johnson numbers now.
Johnson will release a poll after he’s. Been on the air for a week or two.
I hope Team Marty keeps up with this whole “DC establishment” thing. Rings so hollow when she’s so close with President Trump. Meanwhile his involvement in the Pierre scandals is pulling him down like quicksand
She’s a master ladder climber.
1)When she was in the state legislature she cozied up to leadership.
2)When she got to DC, she cozied up to Paul Ryan.
3)Now that she’s running for Governor, she’s cozying up to Trump.
It’s what she does.
How cozy was it being forced to drop out of school to tend to the farm, run a small business?
Probably not as cozy as that cushy law office 😉
I think most people are sick of hearing how hard Kristi had it.
I’m sure that’s the case when you’re a lifelong lawyer whose only experience is in private practice or government.
Let’s stop pretending Kristi is a salt-of-the-earth, down-on-her-luck, boot-strapping Aggie. Her parents may have been. She ain’t.
“I got pregnant and I had to drop out of college feel bad for me!”
Dude, I’m no Noem fan, but don’t go low like that. She’ll self destruct on her own. Don’t be sleazy.
Both candidates seem surprisingly confident. Which is weird.
You are correct; Noem SEEMS confident. She isn’t.
Marty’s confident. It takes a lot of confidence to rock those short shorts.
Indeed it does.
Well According to Dr. LaFleur’s internal poll he has all the candidates beat. All fake!
Team Jackley has the best ground game and will win the nomination. Noem’s advantage is that she has all that DC money and can buy polls.
I have no reason to doubt these numbers…. the favorable/unfavorable numbers seem legitimate given the candidate profiles and neither has really gone negative in a public way (on TV).
My assumption has been that the race is pretty close. If these numbers are correct, it may explain why Jackley has been more aggressive in his endorsements and press effort trying to gain ground.
But… the devil is in the details. I would like to see the cross tabs posted. I would also like to know more about the company – my simple google search came up with very little.
Team Marty is #triggered
DC establishment loves Noem. Brasell and company hope this poll, which isn’t accurate, will shift momentum in Noem’s favor. It won’t.
That may or may not be true. I was speaking with a DC GOP establishment guy who told me *last year* that “everyone hates Noem” and he “didn’t care who was running against her, she was toast.” I replied that they are both strong candidates with well-funded campaigns – it’ll be a race. Nothing has changed since last year to change my opinion.
If Noem’s 11 point lead isn’t real now, it will be once Jackley goes to the Supreme Court to argue South Dakotans should pay higher taxes – then makes it a central pillar of his campaign.
I dont get the mainstreet obsession thing either. I don’t want to pay more taxes.
Marty wants you to pay more taxes. Noem even signed no new taxes pledge and still silence from Marty.
1) Noem Signed a no taxes pledge.
2) Noem tried to pass legislation forcing South Dakotans to pay sales tax on online purchases.
it’s no *new* taxes pledge. haven’t seen Marty do that
If Kristi’s tax forces me to pay today what I didn’t have to pay yesterday, that’s new.
Replace that with “Marty’s” and you’d be right.
Kristi TRIED to pass this new tax through Congress after promising no new taxes. They’re both wrong on this issue.
This is the point. It’s not a new tax. Kristi signed a no new taxes pledge and Marty hasn’t.
Kristi tried to make South Dakotan’s pay more in sales tax than they already are. That’s new.
Marty will be tougher on crime. We need that.
There’s been so much meth brought into the state on his watch, he could be a character on “Breaking Bad”
You’re tired… she’s 1 of 435… she cannot do anything alone. Please take a seat from exasperating yourself & the rest of us.
Right, she failed to influence her peers. Mainly because they knew it was a boneheaded idea.
The only news outlets reporting on this are in Watertown and Pierre. This “poll” is propaganda meant to:
1) Calm the fears of Kristi’s base. Her longtime backers are shocked by how poorly she’s doing and this is meant to keep them hopeful.
2) Shake up team Jackley and get them to make a mistake. They’re trying to trick Jackley into going negative first.
Jackley’s already gone negative, with that stupidity about congressional process.
No, he was smart enough to couch it as an attack against Congress rather than one directed at Kristi. Most people won’t perceive that as an attack on her. Brasell and Noem want Jackley to go after her. If Marty is smart, he’ll wait and let Noem attack him first. She will.
Against Congress? You may want to re-read his press release.
Must be #1 because I’m sure if they have internals telling them something different they won’t be bothered by this.
You are correct, but Team Noem isn’t being run by the best and brightest.
This is silly. The Jackley cronies here are like “Noem hired an elite DC campaign manager” then they turn around and say “Team Noem isn’t being run by the best and brightest”
with those mental gymnastics, it’s almost as if you have an ulterior agenda, huh?
Facts speak for themselves; team Noem ain’t doing so hot.
This is clearly “fake news” intended to 1) push Marty toward negative campaigning, and 2) create the impression of a bandwagon in favor of Noem.
Noem wants to create the impression in the minds of primary voters that she’s in the lead, in the hope that it will become a self-fulfilling prophesy. It looks to me like momentum is on Marty’s side, and Noem is getting spooked about it.
Nobody has truly gone negative. Spats via press release don’t count because nobody but a few press and politicos see that stuff. None of it matters. If they want to move numbers they will need to do it on TV. And we will soon see who needs to improve their internal polling.
This is awesome. It has Marty’s cronies gnashing its teeth so hard, the entire Pierre Establishment is going to need root canals on Monday.
And here we see the real purpose of this fake poll, scare Jackley into making a mistake.
Marty isn’t reading this. He’s sequestered in his office going over his old con law books so he can try to convince the Supreme Court that South Dakotans should pay more taxes
1) Noem introduced legislation to force South Dakotans to pay sales tax on online purchases.
2) She didn’t have enough influence to get it passed.
oh man I can’t wait until jackley starts bragging about the sales tax thing. sure to excite his lawyer buddies while making the average farmer fall asleep
1) Noem introduced legislation to force South Dakotans to pay sales tax on online purchases.
2) She didn’t have enough influence to get it passed.
I want to know why Marty’s trying to take credit for Deb Peters’ law
I couldn’t care less who is ahead, fake poll or real poll.
Outside the insiders and some stalwarts who post on blogs, Republican primary voters like them both andcan gor either way. What happens between now and Election Day will dictate the results.
Ahh, yes. Troy is correct. This is all a sideshow. There’s about 50 people paying attention to this. And about 12 non-campaign staffers actually posting.
The average GOP primary voter hasn’t engaged yet. They certainly haven’t gone to a Lincoln Day dinner and they definitely aren’t reading blogs. What they see on TV will guide their decisions.
Right now it’s about two lobbyists running the show. Mccaulley for Noem and Glodt for jackley.
This is the jist:
Robertson continued, “Marty Jackley’s only path to turning the race around before June 5 may be through a negative ad campaign, but even that is a risky strategy as one would assume his image would take a hit.”
They didn’t like jackley’s clean campaign pledge and are trying to smear him by saying he will go negative.