An attendee at last weeks’ South Dakota Newspaper Association’s convention snapped this for me, and passed it on. Apparently members (around 130) were informally polled and asked who they thought the GOP nominee for Governor was going to be in 2018:
47% picked Marty Jackley, 23% picked Mark Micklelson, 9% picked Kristi Noem, and 5% picked Matt Michels. 17% went for “other,” assuming someone else is going to emerge.
This is a who do they think will win poll not a who do they think will run poll.
I give Jackley the least likely to win award but he’s definitely running. I don’t think he’s that well liked among most conservatives and legislators.
Mickelson is Jeb Bush 2.0 and Marty is Mike Rounds backed.
Noem crushes them both.
Michels is low because he’s not expected by the media to run same with Kristi.
Michels would be up with Mickelson in the 20’s and Noem would be in the 50’s if she were mentioned seriously.
Mickelson will win and will face hardly any competition in the general election.
If 17% of the media thinks it will be someone else than I would rather be the candidate behind that door number.
Kristi Noem
Pros: Congresswoman. Defeated SHS. Big Personality/articulate. Relatable. Conservative. Ways and Means. $1.5 million. elected statewide 3 times. Would be first woman Governor. Strong west river. Tough. Savvy.
Cons: Little legislative accomplishment (not necessarily her fault). Bookers debt higher than when she ran in ’10. Obamacare is still there.
Marty Jackley
Pros: US Attorney. Attorney General. Won Attorney General. Elected twice statewide. Strong attorney on many fronts. Law and Order. Has many big dollar attorney donors.
Cons: Appointed to US Attorney. Appointed Attorney General. Ran against Ron Volesky (’10) and Chad Haber (’14). Can be boring and sounds like a litigator when talking. Late on Conflict of interest legislation. Not very relatable.
Mark Mickelson
Popular legislator. Tall. Looks like his Dad. On same political path as father and grandfather in legislature. Big $$$ financial donors. Family name. 25th anniversary of George’s death is 2018. Big progressive ideas. Harvard. Sioux Falls. Likable. Family dynasty. Johnny on the spot with conflict legislation.
Cons: Low energy. Not the most relatable. Family dynasty. Big progressive ideas – Believes in public/private partnerships. Harvard. Sioux Falls. Family name.
Matt Michels
Pros: Most qualified. LG. Navy. Nurse. Avera. Daugaard. Past Speaker of House – twice. Yankton. Well liked. Personable. Funny. Charismatic. Big Heart.
Cons: Health. Avera job. Daugaard. Mustache. Can be goofy.
(Michels getting in would blow this race wide open and give SD a real race – he’d be my top choice of these four)
Let’s go through the list of most likely OTHER candidates that would be seen as credible:
Corey Brown
Pros: Navy Veteran. Business owner. Former President of Senate. Majority Leader. Former Assistant Majority Leader. Appropriations Chairman during 10% budget cuts. Smart and knows the issues.
Cons: Lives in the middle of nowhere. Most people probably don’t know who he is. Not a big personality. A policy wonk.
Lee Schoenbeck
Pros: Smart. Articulate. Strong opinions. Smartest political tactician of all potential candidates. Past Senate President. Won Senate in District 1 (last Republican to have done so). Former Senator and Representative from Watertown. Does what he thinks is best. Could have been Governor in 2010.
Cons: Love him or hate him. Smart as a whip. Opinionated. Does what he thinks is best. Doesn’t shy away from controversy. Shy’d away from run in 2010. (I’m in the love him crowd)
Shantel Krebs
Pros: 10 years in legislature. Past Ag Committee Chair. Secretary of State. Transformed SOS office. Business owner. Took on fellow Republican SOS. Smart. Strong opinions on government reform. Energetic/articulate. Does not shy away from convictions. Could be first woman governor. Youthful. dark horse in reform election year.
Cons: Took on fellow Republican. Very strong opinions on government reform. Does not shy away from convictions. Youthful.
Dusty Johnson
Pros: Smart. Ambitious. Youthful. Big personality. Daugaard. Former Chief of Staff. Won two statewide races for PUC. TARS. Energy. Politically savvy. Dark horse candidate in 2018 election. Lifelong Republican activist. Defeated Jim Berg in 2004. Good fundraiser.
Cons: Resigned second term of PUC without serving one day. 6 years since he last ran for office. Youthfulness. Possible LG pick for Mickelson. Daugaard.
Russ Olson
Pros: Influential leader in the Madison Community. Former Majority Leader in SD State Senate. CEO of Heartland Energy. Respected.
Cons: Would risk having to leave his executive position (is there a better job in Madison?). Potential LG choice for Marty Jackley.
Gary Hanson
Pros: Former Mayor of SF. Legislator. PUC Commissioner 3 times. Everyone likes Gary.
Cons: Always passes on the big races. Likable. Smart. Hard campaigner. It’s been a long time since he was mayor of SF.
Chris Nelson
Pros: Been on the ballot many times. 2 as SOS, 2 for PUC. 1 for congress. Respected. Hard worker. likable. smart. Probably more suited to Governor than Congress. Good steward.
Cons: lost congressional race in 2010. low key.
Enjoyed your commentary on the 2018 Election. Thank you for posting!
Great insight. I would have gone with other myself. Michels or Noem would have been compelling too.
Chris Nelson would bring more energy to the race than Mickelson. But I give Mick credit because I don’t know why Marty wants to be governor other than that it’s the next thing on his resume. Mickelson does have a vision.
Nelson was seriously considering running in 2010 which is one reason he took forever deciding to run for congress.
Imagine the personality dynamics at play in ’18 when Chris Nelson would be considered the high energy candidate.
That says a lot about the state of the race.
What about Larry Rhoden , Governor or maybe Lt. Governor?
Rhoden would be a really good candidate. He has as much statewide name id as MJ and MM. He came in second to Mike Rounds in the Senate primary.
If he does run he needs to run because he wants to and not because Kristi passed on another tough primary.
He’d be strong. Only Noem would pick him for LG. Marty can’t pick west river and Rhoden would be with Jackley over Mickelson.
I feel like this race will have 2 more candidates if Kristi passes.
Head on Marty beats Mark. If a Gordon Howie type candidate runs then I believe the race swings to ultra moderate Mickelson unless Michels is also in.
Napoli needs to lead and find an alternative to both that can win.
Wish there were a similar picture of the Democratic results. Word is that Mike Huether was the slam-dunk winner on the Den side. That surprised me because: I’ve been asked many times about Billie Sutton; and Mike’s from Sioux Falls – usually a death sentence for a statewide candidate. Of course, Huether’s the only Democrat I’m aware of who could mount an economically competitive campaign for governor.
It would be SHS #1. Huether #2. Unless SHS was excluded then Huether would be #1.
what about the chosen one, Brendan….
He’s not ready.
Huether runs where he thinks he can win and that wouldn’t be the Governor’s mansion.
He’s only economically viable based on his electoral history in Sioux Falls. He was backed by big dollars from the development and business communities – but it’s not like they had a choice the first time around. And the second time around its always good to support the incumbent. Statewide, however, Huether’s financiers will be looking for the sure win. And that means no $$ for Dem.
I think Jackley and Mickelson are good guys, but they are terribly boring to listen to. It may be an election where we are ready to elect our first female Governor. Noem or Krebs would walk away with this nomination should either get in.
Jackley seems unorganized as far as messaging, so does Mickelson. It may be just because it’s too far out I don’t know. It’s a ripe circumstance for someone like Krebs who has taken on her own party and won. People want someone with a record of going against the establishment.
Agreed.