You can call the Congressional race now. Although, you can wager on how big the margin of victory will be. 50k versus 90.

31 thoughts on “You can call the Congressional race now. Although, you can wager on how big the margin of victory will be. 50k versus 90.”

1. Did you see the Rapid City Journal article about Rounds’ coffee with constituents this weekend? When reading your post, I’m reminded of your prediction Trump would drop out after sparring with RINO McCain. Nothing this year is really settled. The anti-incumbent sentiment is as strong as ever. Kristi better not rest on this prediction.

   1. 2012 was also an anti-incumbent year. Kristi won by 50k.

      Nuff said.

      1. PP doing his best Walter Cronkite !

   2. regarding trump, it seems like the republican rank and file has decided the only way to beat a series of democrat antichrists is with a republican antichrist. maybe so.

      1. by which i mean, the trump phenomenon is an abberation directly spawned by how the presidential selection process currently works. it’s not a sign of a coming great republican bloodletting in congress, in spite of a lot of peoples wishful thinking in the matter.

         1. the only thing to turn congress would be a great wave of republicans simply not voting next november, whether through various kinds of confusion or disillusionment related to party splitting, or the high negatives of the leading candidate. i think democrats are hoping for the worst split since the formation of the gop itself. if republicans don’t do a healthy examination of the last twelve years of congressional actions, come to some rational conclusions about political realities instead of screaming about this or that bill, and set a solid course in a better direction, it’s pointless to hope some magic trick will bring the party together.

2. Q~Why do adults brag?
   A~Low self-esteem
   ’nuff said…..

   1. What are you rambling about this time?

      1. I think Porterhouse discovered he was flexible enough to smell his own farts and is dazed from the fumes.

3. So you are encouraging Noem to run for governor?

4. The insults on this blog are pathetic. Porterhouse isn’t a put down. It’s quality stuff. If I called you a “half-educated haybilly” that’s a proper insult and accurate, also. Here, turd-for-brains, read this and stop embarrassing your father. http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/bl-liberal-insults.htm

   1. What’s a “haybilly?” Is that like a hillbilly who can’t spell?

   2. Porter Lansing one of the best tools in helping recruit new Republicans! Always happy to have you on the blogs here in SD!

      1. tool. hah.

5. 2010 was a competitive race.

   2010 = 319,426 voters in the congressional race (including Independent candidate B. Thomas Marking)

   2014 was not competitive.

   2014 = 276,319 (in the congressional race)

   That’s a decline of 43,107 voters not showing up in a non presidential election and essentially an uncontested election.

   Noem’s vote total went up 30,000 votes between 2010 and 2014. That’s a lot. But Democrats decreased by 54,000. The margin of victory in my opinion is as much attributed to Democrats and Independents staying home and not participating in what is essentially an uncontested election while more republicans turned out because of the US Senate race.

6. Basically the stat of the SDDP is that they have given up on showing up to vote.

7. Aren’t you forgetting one big thing? In 2014, the Robinson’s campaign was often described by the DWC as an absent campaign not to mention that Robinson never ran any TV ads. No wonder Noem achieved 67% in 2014. Noem should have received well over 70% given historic standards for successful incumbent Republican congressional candidates in the state. Especially, if you consider that 2014 was a non presidential year which always works to Republican candidates favors.

   Keep in mind back in the day with less favorable voter registration numbers then the ones Noem has to work with now, Thune won I believe with 76% and 71% respectively back in ’98 and 2000. Not to mention that Pressler got 81% in the old 1st District during the “Hay Day” years of SD Democratic dominance in ’76 and then 71% in ’84; while the Democrats had a greater voter registration relevance than they do today.

   When you compare Noem to Thune and Pressler, then Noem is weaker and vulnerable in ’16 as long as Paula can garner the appropriate funds for a good run.

   1. Good one.

8. “….Then Noem is weaker and vulnerable in ’16 as long as Paula can garner the appropriate funds for a good run..”

   Hawks has already has fallen short financially. No way she can gather enough cash to even come close to Noem.

   Sucks to be Hawks.

   1. Don’t forget a weak showing or a defeat might make Kristi call it quits, but a strong showing in ’16 by Kristi could result in an encouragement to run for Governor in ’18, which will divide and destroy the current Republican dominance in Pierre.

      Be careful what you wish for….

      1. Don’t pay attention much, do you? Competitive races every 8 years for Gov. Yet we Republicans always manage to come together just fine.

         1. There has not been a true and honest competitive gubernatorial race in South Dakota since ’86 between Mickelson and Lars Herseth and before that you have to go back to ’78 with Janklow and McKellips…. And in hindsight, I question if ’78 was even competitive given Janklow’s 57 to 43 win over McKellips primarily do to the division within the Democratic party that year between the Kneip/Wollman forces versus the McKelllips crowd….. A type of division you Republicans should be concerned about for 2018.

   2. Does Paula Hawks even exist? I don’t think so. Her campaign is so bad. So so bad.

9. Winston,

   In 1986, the registration totals were 49% GOP, 43% Dem, 8% Independent.

   Today, they are 46% GOP, 32% Dem, 22% Independent.

   Not quite an apples to apples comparison of the environment.

   1. Just saw some national poll results from Gallup. Dems 29%, Repubs 26% and Indy 42+%. When the Indies start looking like the majority compared to the parties, doesn’t that start saying something about partisan politics? (Something healthy I’m thinking.)

      1. It might mean something if there were actually independents who ran for office. The structure that an independent lacks in donors and organization is a major problem and why we don’t see an independent at the national level.

   2. Troy,

      First of all, that 14 pt. increase in Independents is up for grabs theoretically. If not all or most of the Independent vote.

      2018 will be a competitive year for the governor’s race. Especially, if Noem runs and Huether runs. Noem will divide the GOP and Huether will be well funded.

      It does not have to be apples to apples. 2018 will most likely present itself with new unique dynamics which could make that race competitive. Those dynamics are GOP divisiveness combined with significant cash for the Democratic nominee.

10. Nationally Republicans have fallen 12 points in the last twelve years. Dems have fallen eleven and Independents have risen fourteen. As usual, SoDak Teapublicans are late to the table and desperately clinging to their aversion to change.

11. Bill,

    If the growth in Independents is because they like pieces of both party’s ideologies/views, it may be healthy. If the growth is a statement of a critique of both our houses, I think it is unhealthy as the parties are failing to build up the body politic which is their collective role.

12. Winston, your speculation may or may not be correct. However, the relevance is the mountain is higher for all you speculate to translate into fruit.

13. I still don’t see Noem running for governor against Mickelson or Jackley. They both box her out and she doesn’t take the risk.

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