Today is the day. And starting in the next 12 hours or so, we’re going to start getting some ideas of what the next session is going to look like. But before that, the outcome of National races are going to affect us more than you might think. Does Trump win, possibly taking Governor Kristi Noem with him to DC or giving her an ambassadorship? A then Governor Larry Rhoden would trigger both a reworking of state government and a reshuffling of the 2026 gubernatorial race with an incumbent defending against a couple of the GOP’s best. If Trump loses, does that redirect Kristi’s gaze back to federal office? Would she then challenge Senator Mike Rounds in 2026?
Which legislative seats are going to win or lose? It’s no secret that the hard right has been trying to engineer their return to power after they used SDRTL and SD Protecting Kids to play in the primary to attack and remove incumbents in an attempt to return to legislative Leadership. Through his PAC, State Rep. Scott Odenbach has dumped cash into the D32 Senate Independent’s campaign to knock out Republican Senator Helene Duhamel. Democrats are resurgent in a few areas, which might not seem to be much – but they don’t have to do much to upset the well laid plans of those trying to play power politics. It seems to be a complete free for all as various parties compete to put their person in.
A lot of this is driven by the upcoming leadership races. After the last election we had a number of legislators led by Jon Hansen voting against Republican Leadership in the Speaker of the House race. The consequences of that in the upcoming session could be more dire if there is a larger group of defecting Republicans trying to overturn caucus decisions again. So, how many Republicans is as important as which Republicans get elected tonight.
Predictions? Here’s the races I’m watching.
| D1 House | ||
| Logan Manhart (R) | Steven D. McCleerey (D) | Josh Dennert (L) |
| Christopher Reder (R) | Mark Sumption (D) | Tamara Lesnar (L) |
Watch this race. D1 has the possibility to roil House caucus elections. No incumbents, at least one known Democrat, and 2 libertarians who have strong enough local names to potentially peel votes off of the Republicans could spell trouble in this this swing district. L’s won’t win – but they could steal numbers that the Republican need. I believe Dems could take one, if not both seats.
| District 3 House: | |
| Al Novstrup (R) | Erin R Rudner (D) |
| Brandei Schaefbauer (R-Incumbent) |
Word coming late in the game that the Democrat Rudner seems to have some steam. I’ve looked at her website, and she might have had more if she focused on better messaging (US post office?), but some locals think she could bump one of the Republicans off. Not sure that I see it, but that’s what some are claiming. I am doubtful Rudner is going to happen, but people in Aberdeen think Schaefbauer might be the one to get bumped off if one of them does.
| District 10 House: | |
| Erin Healy (D – Incumbent) | Bobbi L Andera (R) |
| Kameron Nelson (D – Incumbent) |
Sioux Falls Districts are more important to watch, as those are where the state’s deep red moves into shades of purple. Here, the district is pure blue. Both of these Dems will sail through and Bobbi Andera should end up squished in the road as Democrats roll over her. This one is just not going to happen for R’s
| District 11 Senate: | |
| Chris Karr (R) | Steve Natz (D) |
| District 11 House: | |
| Brian Mulder (R – Incumbent) | Aaron Matson (D) |
| Keri Weems (R) | Sonja Mentzer (D) |
On the Senate side, neither Karr ($10.4k spent, $5.4k cash on hand) or Natz ($7.3 spent, 3.6k cash on hand) have put up serious numbers going into the last 2 weeks, so they’re just going through the motions of campaigning. Having been elected before, Karr will likely take it because Natz didn’t give voters a reason not to. In the House, Mulder as the incumbent should be fine. Matson showed some sparks of life, raising over $20k in the campaign, spending $12.8k, with $8.7 cash on hand for the last 2 weeks, but I don’t know that it will be enough to put him over Keri Weems. This should be a safe Republican District by the end of the night.
| District 12 Senate: |
| Arch Beal (R- incumbent) |
| Clay Hoffman (D) |
| District 14 Senate: |
| Sandra Henry (D) |
| Larry Zikmund (R – Incumbent) |
D12 and 14 Senate are the big two for Republicans in the Senate contests. But I believe as we get closer to the election, they are becoming less competitive, and the incumbents should cruise through just fine, unless there’s a lingering anti-incumbent sentiment that we don’t know about. Everyone knows Arch Beal. Everyone Knows Larry Zikmund, and their opponents have not made enough of a case to why they shouldn’t be there.
| District 14 House: | |
| Taylor Rehfeldt (R – Incumbent) | B.J. Motley (D) |
| Tony Kayser (R) | Keith Block (D) |
Taylor Rehfeldt should be fine, but there are those expressing to me that they are nervous about Kayser being eclipsed by a Democrat. I don’t see it. This should go GOP all the way.
| District 15 House: | |
| Joni Tschetter (R) | Kadyn Wittman (D – Incumbent) |
| Brad Lindwurm (R) | Erik Muckey (D) |
Right now, this district is double Dem, but if anyone has a chance of breaking that tradition, it’s Republican Joni Tschetter who came within less than 100 votes of doing so last election. I would venture Kadyn Wittman of the many press releases will take a spot as the incumbent. But I anticipate Tschetter who came close last election will fight it out down to the end with Muckey for the #2 spot. (Bad Brad Lindwurm is a dog that isn’t going to hunt).
| District 18 Senate: | |
| Lauren Nelson (R) | Sarah Carda (D) |
Here’s another big sleeper to watch. School voucher advocate Lauren Nelson might have edged out Jean Hunhoff in the primary, but Democrats pivoted to one of the best candidates on the board for them this cycle in Sarah Carda, the President of the Yankton School Board. Carda has served on the South Dakota Department of Education Special Education Advisory Panel and SD Council on Development Disabilities as an appointee of Governor’s Daugaard and Noem, and is married to a current Yankton City Commissioner. And from what I’m told, she’s been able to gather substantial resources to compete with Bernie Hunhoff as her campaign chair and Ryan Cwach as her treasurer. $23,830.31 spent, and $4,602.32 cash on hand, plus another $3500 raised since, compared to Lauren Nelsen’s $30,301.26 spent, $391.18 cash on hand, plus another $1000 since. With the Yankton County GOP’s utter disorganization, the stage has been set for this race to be close.
| District 26 Senate: | |
| Shawn Bordeaux (D – Incumbent) | Tamara Grove (R) |
On Dakota Town Hall this last week, several of us were speculating on the races, with Austin Goss of the Dakota Scout hot on possibility of this contest flipping for the GOP. But, despite saying my prayers at night, I don’t think this is in the R Column.
Shawn Bordeaux is not a favorite in the Senate, and at one time was removed as chair of the State Tribal Relations Committee because of him being a jerk. But I don’t think this split district is going to boot him and replace him with Jason Ravnsborg’s former Campaign Manager. Tamara is a great person, and has the experience of the other side of the campaign and as a candidate herself in a couple of other races (2018 Legislative, 2016 City) in Sioux Falls, but as a recent transplant to D26, making the case to remove an incumbent is a tough, tough challenge that I don’t think is going to happen. We’re also in a very high turnout year, which will favor the status quo because people have voted for Bordeaux several times before. It might take Rep. Rebecca Reimer to displace Bordeaux from that seat down the line. But even that will take a very strong campaign effort.
| District 27 House: | |
| Peri Pourier (D – Incumbent) | Liz May (R – Incumbent) |
| Elsie Meeks (D) |
Pourier is a given, but the question is how well Meeks is going to perform? Meeks was a former Lt. Gov Candidate back in the day, and has raised a bit, but again – the question is whether or not her campaign has risen to the level of knocking out an incumbent, even one such as Hillary Clinton Donor Liz May.
| District 31 House: | |
| Mary Fitzgerald (R – Incumbent) | Shana McVickers (I) |
| Scott Odenbach (R – Incumbent) | Victoria Greenlee (I) |
This one should be Fitzgerald and Odenbach, no matter what the resident D31 crackpots crow about on facebook. Stick a fork in the indy’s. That tater is done.
| District 32 Senate: | |
| Helene Duhamel (R – Incumbent) | Karen McNeal (I) |
| District 32 House: | |
| Steve Duffy (R – Incumbent) | Nicole Uhre-Balk (D) |
| Brook Kaufman (R) |
No matter the amount that D31 Representative Scott Odenbach might funnel to Karen McNeal through his PAC, or how many facebook posts come from Toby Doeden, right-wing Indy wackadoodle Karen McNeal isn’t going to happen. McNeal raised $17,325.00, and spent $16,880.36, leaving her nothing but $444 and trash-talking door to door for the last 2 weeks. That’s up against this cycle’s nicest and most MOTIVATED candidate, State Senator Helene Duhamel. In this contest, everyone was ALL IN for Helene, who started with $33,862.10, raised another $71,576.97, had $$62,215.47 left for advertising in the last 2 weeks, plus another $5k in late donations. I believe there were party postcards, facebook promotions, and so many others jumped in to support a genuinely nice person who always runs like she’s 10 points down. Say goodbye to the Karen, folks. This race is over.
District 32 House should also come out fine for Republicans with incumbent Steve Duffy and Brook Kaufman. Single Democrats running alone might attempt a bullet voting campaign, but those are challenging because you have to convince people to only use half of their vote. Even though Democrat Nicole Uhre-Balk looks a lot like her aunt Carole Hillard, I give this one to the R’s all the way.
| District 34 Senate: | |
| Taffy Howard (R) | Kehala Two Bulls (D) |
Kehala Two Bulls was a good replacement candidate for the Dems, but I don’t think she’s going to be able to overcome the voter registration advantage. Senate Leadership has been supporting Taffy’s candidacy, so I think you can safely mark this one down in the R Column.
Those are my predictions. Am I way off? Any others that you see might be on the bubble? Let us know in the comment section.
Appreciate the detailed analysis, astute as usual. Everyone go vote!
District 1 keys is whether Steven McCleerey can get out the vote on the eastern half of this district. Tribes still have the ban in place on Governor Noem including Sisseton/Oyate. I can’t imagine that either Joe Donnell or Tamara St. John is out campaigning in that region for Logan or Christopher after they knocked her out in June.
District 3. Absentee votes was over 8700 here in Brown County. Majority were Republican voters and most came from District 3. Rudner needs Rs to vote for her or she has no chance to get a seat. If she does, likely candidate out might be Al Novstrup, not Brandei Schaefbauer
They treated Tamara like crap. She was the adult, was very composed, professional and a peacemaker in the room for District 1 SDGOP candidates during the legislative candidate forum.
District 3 There are many Democrats and Democrat leaning voters that register as Republicans to blend in professionally so they do not get discriminated against or their business is hurt. It is sad to see it but it is what it is. Another reason is to have a voice in the SDGOP primary to vote for the least worst candidate rather than the best since the Dems in the past were not competitive or able to field candidates. We ended up with some real duds as legislators both in both houses of the legislature on the SDGOP side. It has just been getting more extreme and ineffective for the district.
How (and why) they ousted a good legislator like Jean Hunhoff is beyond me. If we lose that one, it’s on those that just had revenge…