From facebook.
Apparently candidate for Congress Neal Tapio was discussing some strategy on how he was going to win. And it involved looking for another terrorist attack on US Soil to deliver the nomination.
A Republican political consulting firm, Rockbridge Strategies, released a poll yesterday showing Congresswoman Kristi Noem as polling 11 points up from Marty Jackley, which the Jackley people were quick to try to discredit.
This morning the polling firm, Advantage, Inc, released a little more information on the results:
| Advantage, Inc | ||||||
| Project: South Dakota Governor Autopoll | ||||||
| 4/4/18 | ||||||
| Start Date | 4-Apr | |||||
| End Date | 4-Apr | |||||
| N= 500 | ||||||
| Date | 4-Apr | Total | ||||
| Q1. Do you plan on voting in the June 5 Republican primary for governor? | ||||||
| 1 | Yes | 500 | 500 | 100.00% | ||
| 2 | Not sure | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | ||
| 3 | Unsure | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | ||
| TOTAL | 500 | 500 | 100.00% | |||
| Q2. If the candidates for governor in the Republican primary are Kristi Noem and Marty Jackley, who would you vote for? | ||||||
| 1 | Kristi Noem | 220 | 220 | 44.00% | ||
| 2 | Marty Jackley | 166 | 166 | 33.20% | ||
| 3 | Undecided | 114 | 114 | 22.80% | ||
| TOTAL | 500 | 500 | 100.00% | |||
| Q3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kristi Noem? | ||||||
| 1 | Favorable | 340 | 340 | 68.00% | ||
| 2 | Unfavorable | 91 | 91 | 18.20% | ||
| 3 | No Opinion | 69 | 69 | 13.80% | ||
| TOTAL | 500 | 500 | 100.00% | |||
| Q4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Marty Jackley? | ||||||
| 1 | Favorable | 295 | 295 | 59.00% | ||
| 2 | Unfavorable | 96 | 96 | 19.20% | ||
| 3 | No Opinion | 109 | 109 | 21.80% | ||
| TOTAL | 500 | 500 | 100.00% | |||
| Q5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump? | ||||||
| 1 | Favorable | 349 | 349 | 69.80% | ||
| 2 | Unfavorable | 107 | 107 | 21.40% | ||
| 3 | No Opinion | 44 | 44 | 8.80% | ||
| TOTAL | 500 | 500 | 100.00% | |||
| Q6. Are you male or female? | ||||||
| 1 | Male | 250 | 250 | 50.00% | ||
| 2 | Female | 250 | 250 | 50.00% | ||
| TOTAL | 500 | 500 | 100.00% | |||
Libertarian Candidate for Governor CJ Abernathey is doing his best to show South Dakota what the Libertarian Party stands for. And apparently it must stand for telling women to get back in the kitchen because men should not be forced to hire them:
But it gets better. He’s not saying women aren’t good workers….
(He actually edited that?) Abernathey states “I’m just saying that it’s an extreme risk for an owner to hire a woman working around men in today’s society, and I think that women are to blame for that.”
….because women force the men to act inappropriately? Darn it. We knew it was all their fault!
Dang! Libertarian candidate CJ Abernathey must represent the enlightened wing of the Libertarian party.
Keeping women in line like they were in the 50’s. The 1850’s, that is.
Fake DC Polling Hits South Dakota Governor’s Race
PIERRE, SD: A fake poll pushed by a business partner of Noem for Governor campaign manager Justin Brasell has South Dakotans shaking their heads this week.
“We know that today’s fake poll is nothing more than a press release issued by a business partner of the congresswoman’s campaign manager Justin Brasell, so we can’t help but laugh and keep doing what we’re doing,” said Jackley for Governor campaign manager Jason Glodt.
Brasell, a DC operative who tried to disguise the poll as legitimate, has a history of using fake polling as a tactic to change public opinion. His relationship with Kyle Robertson, whose firm announced the poll results, goes back at least 15 years. In 2015, Brasell released the same type of poll from his firm touting a candidate whose campaign was being managed by none other than Kyle Robertson.
The fake poll conducted by Brasell showed Robertson’s candidate winning by a large margin, but he ended up placing a distant third place in that election.
Now the roles have reversed. Brasell is the campaign manager and Robertson is releasing fake polls for Brasell’s candidate in an attempt to deceive South Dakotans.
“Congresswoman Noem is a little late with her April Fools joke,” Glodt said.
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This mail piece is hitting mailboxes in Sioux Falls today for Janet Brekke, who is running for City Council:
Good gosh. Short of “Dear Occupant,” I can’t think of a more impersonal salutation than “Dear Fellow voters.”
And while I’m sure she’s a nice lady, the Brekke campaign using language such as “we need an elected Council working to help Theresa Stehly… Janet Brekke is that person” did not do the campaign any good. Because Brekke is now that person carrying her baggage. In tying herself to Councilor Stehly, she’s polarized those who aren’t Stehly supporters to absolutely vote against her.
There’s some language in the letter that would have come off far better if it had been bulleted, and there’s a fairly decent list of supporters on the letter. But I think the good in the letter is far overshadowed by the campaign gaffes.
Someone should have gotten this campaign some professional help, because I don’t know that this campaign piece did the candidate any good.
In fact, it may have done the opposite.
I just received this press release in my in-box. Interesting. I’m not familiar with the polling firm, but we can add them to the list of political prognosticators. – PP
NEWS RELEASE
For Immediate Release: April 6, 2018
Kristi Noem Leads by 11 in South Dakota Governor Race
Washington, D.C. – Hamlin County native Kristi Noem has opened up an 11-point lead in the Republican Primary for Governor over Attorney General Marty Jackley. Noem leads with 44% compared to Jackley’s 33% as both candidates appear to be well liked by South Dakota Republican primary voters. With early voting beginning in just two weeks it appears Noem has a significant advantage headed into the June 5th GOP Primary.
“Kristi Noem appears to be doing a great job of communicating her message to South Dakotans,” said Kyle Robertson, President of Rockbridge Strategy. “Marty Jackley’s only path to turning the race around before June 5th may be through a negative ad campaign, but even that is a risky strategy as one would assume his image would take a hit.”
While Noem leads 44% – 33%, there are 23% of voters who remain undecided. Among undecided voters, 68% have a favorable view of President Donald Trump. That bodes well for Kristi Noem, as she is doing particularly well among pro-Trump voters, earning 51% to Jackley’s 27%, a 24-point advantage. Both candidates should be pleased with their images at this point in the race. Noem has a 68% favorable and 18% unfavorable rating while Jackley trails with a 59% favorable and 19% unfavorable.
“Noem’s lead may force Jackley into a decision on whether or not to go negative on the airwaves down the final stretch,” added Robertson. “Jackley’s team will have a tough decision to make.”
The poll was conducted using IVR technology by Advantage, Inc. on Wednesday, April 4th and included a sample size of 500 likely GOP Primary voters with a 2.9% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval. Advantage, Inc. is a widely respected voter contact firm with decades of experience in polling from local to national campaigns. The survey’s questionnaire and crosstabs are available to the media upon request.
###
Candiade for Sioux Falls City Council, Nick “Man-bun” Weiland, has a bizarre campaign ad in the Argus Leader today which should leave people scratching their heads if they’re paying attention:
Specifically,
Someone needs to explain to Nick that city councils have nothing to do with drug courts. As noted on the website for the Unified Judicial System:
Drug Courts are a specially designed criminal docket aimed at reducing criminal recidivism and substance abuse while increasing the likelihood of successful rehabilitation for adults with substance use disorders charged with drug related offenses.
Unified Judicial System… as in South Dakota’s Court System. Not City Council.
The Krebs for Congress campaign sent a postcard out this week that’s landing in mailboxes today:
Krebs is relying largely on a pro-Trump message, and talks about standing with President Trump “against the establishment,” mirroring much of Neal Tapio’s anti-establishment rhetoric that he’s using out on the stump.
Stay tuned.
I felt that burn all the way up in arctic Brookings. South Dakota GOP Chair Dan Lederman pointed out to the Associated Press that while Dems may have filled some seats this election, that’s only part of the job:
The South Dakota Democratic Party said Thursday that 110 Democratic candidates are running for 101 out of the 105 seats in the Legislature. Democratic Party Chair Ann Tornberg says it’s another sign of the momentum her party has in South Dakota and around the nation.
State GOP Chairman Dan Lederman says Republicans plan to run a vigorous campaign this season with 115 candidates running for 97 legislative seats. He said the party applauds South Dakota Democrats for their “biennial pantomime of pretending they’re a viable political party,” but that “quantity should not be equated with quality.”
Since the press generally takes what they want from quotes, I did ask Lederman for the full statement, and he was happy to provide it:
The South Dakota Republican party applauds South Dakota Democrats for their biennial pantomime of pretending they’re a viable political party, at the same time they’re on life support from the National Democrat organization. As they have demonstrated time and again, talk is cheap, and filling seats with warm bodies might make for a nice press release, but quantity should not be equated with quality.
Democrats have a long precedent of using placeholders who have no intention of running – much less serving – in Pierre, and if the past several cycles are any indication, we’ll see at least a dozen of them drop out before the deadline to replace candidates in August.
Republicans have 115 Candidates running for 97 legislative seats, and the difference between the parties is that Republicans did not have to beg people to fill a slot. Our candidates came forward on their own, and most of the candidates from the GOP will be successful in their campaigns.
South Dakota Republicans take nothing for granted, and we’re already making plans to run a vigorous campaign effort this season, whether the people our candidates are running against now are the same ones in the fall.
Ouch. The party of ‘Bern’ is feeling the burn. 🙂
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Fall River and Oglala Lakota States Attorney Jim Sword Endorses Ravnsborg for Attorney General
HOT SPRINGS, SD: Hot Springs attorney and Fall River and Oglala Lakota States Attorney Jim Sword has endorsed Attorney General Candidate Jason Ravnsborg.
“Jason is an experienced leader who understands that we need someone as Attorney General that can handle a wide variety of cases from prosecuting, to defending to civil cases in both state and federal court,” Sword said. “He also understands the position is larger than the courtroom and is one where you have to have the temperament and skills to work with legislators to build a coalition to assist States Attorneys and members of law enforcement in obtaining the resources they need to keep us all safe in a wide variety of areas.”
Sword lives in Hot Springs where he is a partner of Sword and Ahrendt Law Office, P.C. He prosecutes in Fall River and Oglala Lakota County and also represents individuals, businesses and government entities before state and federal courts. In addition Sword defends clients in Pennington, Custer, Bennett counties and throughout the Northern Black Hills. He is a former chairman of the Fall River County Child Protection Team and Board of Directors member of the Alcohol Recovery Center of the Black Hills.
“Jason has been battled tested both on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan in service to our country and in the courtroom.” Sword stated. “Having served in the United States Army as a Captain myself, I know they do not just make anyone a Battalion Commander, they select people that lead from the front selflessly, with strong moral character and work with a staff to oversee hundreds of people with many challenging situations happening at the same time.”
Sword went on to say “Jason is the only candidate that I see that has all of these skills, he will make an outstanding Attorney General and has my full endorsement and support.”
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