As we approach the beginnings of the 2020 election, it’s a suitable point in time for those of us who are Republicans to engage in self-reflection as to the challenges that we will face as we try to replicate what has been a now decade-long record of success.
Starting in 2010 when Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin was defeated by now-Governor Kristi Noem in the race for Congress that year, the GOP has literally been unmatched and unbeatable in their efforts for statewide and legislative office. It has been a long run, which promises to continue as South Dakota moves deeper into deeper shades of Republican-red state while Democrats shed voters daily.
Recently, for the first time, Republican voter registration versus that of Democrats surpassed a 100,000 voter advantage for the GOP over their opposition, and continues to increase.
It should be a perfect world for South Dakota’s dominant political party. But it’s never that easy. There are pitfalls that could cause the GOP to stumble, and challenges that should be recognized and met if the GOP seeks continued success in South Dakota.
Complacency
In 2018, a county that has always been a bright red beacon for the SDGOP went blue in the two closes races on the ballot. Hughes County, the seat of state government swung for Democrats in the Governor’s Race, and the contest for Attorney General.
Whatever other factors were at play, there were complaints of a lack of engagement for Hughes County from campaign organizations. It should be concerning when a county that has historically provided a solid and reliable block of voters for the GOP utterly drops the ball.
Pennington County was another county that seemingly fell apart. 10 years prior, in 2010 Pennington County provided a vote margin for the GOP over Democrats of 12,124 votes in the Governor’s race. In 2018 they only managed to deliver a margin of 4,956 – a drop of over 7000 votes.
Pennington was another GOP organization that had a number of campaigns concerned. Resources had to be diverted to this important county because again, the ball had been dropped and county efforts were floundering in disarray. Pennington County GOP politics have long been dysfunctional, but 2018 marked one of the worst points that it had ever seen.
In both cases, since the election those counties have reorganized with leadership that seems more committed to getting Republican officeholders elected and getting the job done. But it’s a good reminder that complacency is one of the GOP’s greatest challenges.
Division
Divide et impera or “Divide and conquer” is said to have been coined by Philip II of Macedon – Father of Alexander the Great – at around 300 BC. Some people keep doing their darndest to divide up the Republican party on the basis of how they choose to define GOP purity. And if they’re allowed to divide us, we risk being conquered.
The GOP is so dominant in this state that the only way Democrats can win is if the Republican Party allows itself to be divided and drives people from the big tent. And it’s an eternal challenge.
You can always figure that in each political party in the state, there are about 20% who tend towards the extreme. Democrats have them, and so does the GOP. In our party, they’re out there claiming everyone else is not a ‘true’ Republican, and attacks people as being corrupt among the kinder things.
These contrarians will vote against anyone who has been approved by a majority of the voters just for the sake of being contrarian. Never was that more evident than the 2014 GOP Gubernatorial primary where Lora Hubbel ran against Governor Dennis Daugaard. She didn’t do anything, didn’t raise money, didn’t campaign, etc., Yet, she received 19% of the vote, affirming the 20% contrarian ballot. And of course, this ‘true’ Republican later ran as an independent, and switched to the Constitution Party.
More recently, we have players such as Stace Nelson attacking and trying to build a political caucus to divide and compete against the Republican caucus. Even after a winning GOP election, where he lost an ally or two in the process, he’s still attacking Republicans as being RINO’s and Democrats, trying to sow further division.
You’ll never convince the ‘true’ Republicans that a rising tide lifts all boats, and that political parties are built by addition, not subtraction. The internal forces that seek to divide the GOP for personal ends have been around for some time now, and they may always be among us.
If the GOP is to continue to be dominant in state politics, this challenge has to be recognized, and addressed.
The Great City to the East
Sioux Falls metropolitan area’s population of over 259,000 accounts for roughly 30% of South Dakota’s population. And in that area in the last election, the GOP lost 3 legislative seats, and only narrowly avoided losing a 4th.
Coming up on 2020, the GOP doesn’t just have to try to take back those three very winnable seats. It also has to find candidates and try to retain 4 more seats that are being turned over due to term limits. Seven legislative seats in an area that contains 1/3 of the voters in the entire state. Not exactly a cakewalk, but the GOP is up to the task.
Electorally, Sioux Falls has also shown us in the last election, we can’t take anything for granted. The party needs good candidates, and more importantly, it needs candidates who are good campaigners. These concepts are not mutually exclusive. One can be a great candidate on paper but fall apart when it’s time to go out and collect votes. Good campaigners understand that votes are won one at a time and will commit to do the work.
And in general, Republicans on a statewide level need to pay more attention to the big city that some like to cast shade on.
The State Republican Party had moved offices to Sioux Falls early on in the string of victories by the SDGOP. But as different people came into leadership, they wanted to move it back to Pierre, which has shifted the focus of party activity away from our state’s metroplex.
Nothing against Pierre-Ft Pierre, but everyone will admit that it has fewer votes than the Sioux Falls area.
I’ll be the first to advocate that the GOP needs a hard shift of resources and an increase of activity back to the state’s largest city. It’s where fundraising happens. It’s where the voters are. It’s where the GOP needs to be and needs to be visible each and every day.
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The South Dakota Republican Party faces many more challenges than just these few to maintain as the dominant political party in the state.
But by recognizing and meeting these challenges and addressing them early on, the GOP can build a solid foundation on which to campaign for the trust of voters to maintain another decade of leadership in the great State of South Dakota.
The population increase in the SE and decline in most other areas will lead to even more representation in the legislature leading to a vulnerability of being controlled by more moderates and Democrats. I wish we had senate districts by area instead of population to ease this concern. It’s hard to ignore the massive swings in ideology from the middle and left which will inevitably creep more into SD. Who would have that we would have gay pride parades in S.D. not that long ago!
Sioux Falls will be a big problem for the GOP going forward. As the city becomes more cosmopolitan the current far right legislators will lose their appeal to a more moderate voter base. Your analysis is spot one. I think the only question is when.
Aberdeen has a chance to get rid of the last Daschle stronghold, Mayor Mike Levson. We finally have a chance to take our city council back from Democrats.
We have an excellent candidate running for mayor, Travis Schaunaman, and an excellent person running for City Council, Josh Rife. Both are young and energetic.
You are right in saying it is so easy to be complacent. Now is not the time to sit back.
I am looking forward to another election with hope on June 4th.
Did the positions of Aberdeen mayor and city council change? They are or were politically neutral positions being non partisan.
The legislature, in similar urgency to how our initiated process has the potential to erode our South Dakota values and needs to be changed to mute that effect, our legislature needs to adopt a geographical electoral style of State representation before an eventual southeastern urban imbalance eventually will dictate statewide policy similar to Minneapolis in MN or Chicago in IL. The early results are already evident and the demographics are undeniable.
Wow. Sorry, Kelly but districts are constitutionally designed to represent population (read voters) not acres. Take a constitutional law course…Hillsdale College has an excellent free one.
The fact that you all are scared of a state government that accurately represents the population of the state should be shocking but sadly, it is not. Power above all other considerations, especially democracy, is an incredibly on brand message for the GOP. Keep moving those goalposts and changing the rules to hold on to that elusive power as long as you can, the look is very becoming.
1) The US Supreme Court has unequivocally ruled Legislative Districts not based on population to be unconstitutional. Period. End of Discussion. Anyone who suggests geographic representation is so basically uninformed of our Constitution they should not be taken seriously on political matters. They are just the flip side of the morons on the left who advocate getting rid of the Electoral College. Neither change will ever happen and saying it just makes it clear the speaker is a clueless.
2) The population of Sioux Falls is younger, more educated, and more affluent than the rest of the state. In a Democratic Republic, the power to govern comes from the governed. If Republicans are unwilling to do the work to communicate with this demographic or be accountable to the governed, they deserve to lose their governing majority. Fortunately the vast of majority of Republicans are willing to do the work and are willing to be accountable.
3) Anonymous 1:27: I too am appalled in the posts above. Change is opportunity and the pending changes in South Dakota are ripe for hearing and adopting the Republican message. There is no fear in my eyes. It wasn’t but 8 years ago when it was conventional “wisdom” we wouldn’t even again have a Republican President.
4) The assertion Sioux Falls is a Democrat stronghold is moronic. Sioux Falls is 15-6 Republican (which is over 70%). At least in one of the races we lost, I’m sure it will be recaptured. In reality, it is more likely we get more Republicans in the next election than less.
Gawd, I thought you took your brilliance and left the stage like the true drama queen you are.
“Our [US] Constitution” says nothing about how state legislative districts are to be determined. Period. End of discussion.
The FACT that the US Constitution itself creates representation based on the simple geography of a state (it’s called “the US Senate”, for you morons out there) and that for 180 years state legislative districts were often tied to geography (not population), indicates that the author of statements to the contrary are just the flip side of the morons on the left who advocate getting rid of the Electoral College.
It just makes it clear the writer is a (sic) clueless.
I think the third Item is the most concerning.
As was stated large cities tend to have groupthink for liberals
I don’t think complacency will be a problem we’ve got good hard-working candidates and good hard-working party activists. The poor thing doesn’t concern me as much in the AG race the Democratic candidate was from that area. However by Kristi having a close race It does serve as a wake up call to always be vigilant.
As for division that’s largely in the primaries and for the most part people come together yet in the fall because even if they are more moderate Or more conservative you still can’t elect these left-wing socialist that are being pushed by the Democrats
There should be 4) Trade Policy
Should the trade war continue, or worsen, it could further erode GOP support in SD. With politics becoming increasingly nationalized rather than localized, the branding of the national GOP and Dem parties is holding larger sway over state and local elections. If nation trade policies continue to negatively impact farming I don’t see how the GOP doesn’t shoulder a majority of the resentment, and malcontent with Washington will trickle down to state and local races. Should the ag community support for the GOP falter via no-show, or flip, electoral margins in state will start tipping blue. By itself it probably isn’t enough to change anything in most counties, but depressed turnout in rural counties will give exacerbate the sway of Sioux Falls metro voters in the statewide races.
Even Krugman who is a far left liberal is agreeing Trump is correct to stand up to the Chinese…we can do the AFP approach of no tarrifs are bad, do nothing and continue to get our head beat in—or you can stand up for ourselves and push back for a better deal in the long term. GO TRUMP!
And Friedman. Let the AFP through in with the Chinese. They’re building a record of odd bedfellows.
Trump didn’t just slap tariffs on the Chinese. He did a heck of a lot more than that.
Good analysis, a couple thoughts I’d add:
1 outside of SF and RC, South Dakota is generally getting more conservative and more Republican. Aberdeen and Watertown and Huron and Webster and Miner County and ….the list goes on. Democrats are less competitive than ever.
2 Rapid City is almost a 100% self-inflicted wound by one faction that claims to be GOP. They’ve killed the interest of the right-middle of the party there, which has created Dem opportunities if they avoid (and for them it’s that only eating one Lays potatoes chip problem) nominating the purple-haired rainbow crowd.
3 SF, our GOP challenge there is in the Rep areas. These are the only “suburban” voters you hear about nationally, that the GOP is loosing in droves. You need dynamic, nondogmatic, practical conservatives to win those seats. Yes, that includes the frequently disparaged by some factions, business Republicans. The 2020 primaries in SF will dictate whether we hold a GOP supermajority in state senate
Will be fun to watch. Our slate in Codington will be rock solid again
Great post as usual. Very solid points. You’re dead right about SF. Candidate recruitment will be crucial. Dynamic, Non-Dogmatic. Practical. Let’s add: intelligent & media savvy. Glad to hear about Codington.
Regarding your #2, the reorganized, reenergized Pennington Co. GOP leadership is already working hard on rebuilding and overcoming that problem. I’m happy to be a part of it.
The portion of Sioux Falls within Minnehaha County is a problem for the GOP. It is definitely trending Dem. In this last election, if my count is right, Noem only carried 7 of 50 precincts that are in the city limits in Minnehaha county. However, the good news for the GOP is that she carried every voting precinct that is not in the city limits but in our biggest county. Lots of growth in those areas. They need to be tapped and organized. Sutton also carried a few precincts in SF in Lincoln county. We should acknowledge that the Sutton campaign was very well run. It almost got over the top. Another factor to be recognized is the general feeling among the public that after 40 years of GOP governors, there should be a change. ( We are the only state of the 50 that has had the same party in control of the governorship since 1979.) But Minnehaha county is and will be the political battleground in the coming years in SD. No free rides for any candidates running in that county. Rural trending GOP. City folks trending Dem. Just my thoughts. Get ready for 2020. JB
2020 will have the same map; I think the wild ride will actually start in 2022 with new districts….
I like 40 years of GOP Governors, 50 would be better! 🙂
GOTV is crucial. The republicans in my district did very little of it other than waving signs at major intersections and putting out yard signs while I saw the Dem candidates going door to door. One republican incumbent lost while the other barely won.
The GOP at the state and county level need to work together for GOTV and knock on everyone’s door asking for their vote and support. I saw very little of it.