From Facebook:
The SDGOP’s facebook page has a post up citing polling by “polymarket.” The problem? Polymarket.com is a crypto betting market, and not exactly what one might consider a provider of accurate polling.
Well, of course no one should trust polls like this. Not sure how many people, except crypto-bettors would even see this kind of silliness.
This is not a poll. It is a prediction market. It is not saying that Trump leads 60-37. It is saying that, according to this prediction market, Trump has a 60% chance of winning the election, and Kamala Harris has a 37% chance.
These prediction markets can be a pretty good way to gauge trends, but again, it is not a poll.
The betting markets are consistently considered fairly accurate in predicting electoral/political outcomes. This wasn’t an endorsement by the state GOP of them or even a statement that this should be considered bulletproof, just a motivational post to encourage republicans to work for the outcome they want. Not everything is a controversy.
The betting markets are in line with polling as well. A national Harvard Poll (A rating) had Trump up 3/4% depending on third-party candidates. This would be a pretty strong win in the electoral college.
What is the SDGOP doing right now? I’m hearing Wiik has decided SDGOP will not do anything to help Fiegen and other candidates, he’s decided the SDGOP will not do anything to fight the jungle primary ballot measure, and he’s given up on fundraising. So what exactly is the SDGOP doing? Wiik hired a full time executive director. Is Wiik paying a full time salary so his executive director can write inspirational Facebook messages based on online gambling sites? Considering the SDGOP’s dismal financial situation, I am not convinced this is a good use of the little money we have left.
This is a big thing in the right wing media (excluding the boomer tailored Fox News). If you listen to Daily Wire, Timcast IRL, Turning Point, they all embrace crypto and everything that goes along with it like these betting sites. Tim Pool talks about it once a week at least. Remember, crypto can’t be manipulated by the federal reserve, it is also tough to track, therefore, those with money will never have to pay taxes or be subject to “inflation” if we switch to it. It just so happens billionaires bankroll all those right wing shows I mentioned, funny coincidence.
Polymarket also just hired Nate Silver from 538 who seems to be pushing a Trump win, likely for his own benefit.
No no no…this is the Dakota War College. Not the Dakota Free Press, aka Dakota Septic Tank.
Predictive information systems have obviated polling.
Polling must be random to have a chance at being correct.
But, why bother polling a sample size when you can use the surveillance economy state to identify the number of people that will vote one way or another, and thus (hypothetically 110% absolutely for sure) how many ballots will need to be *ahem* manufactured?
When the military is running civil matters, the tail is wagging the dog. Military destroys by its nature. Civilians build by their nature.