The Down-Ticket Report. How are the legislative races shaping up? (Part 1)

Huge post here as the state legislative races have largely shaped up.. but could be subject to some shifting and jostling as we found out in Brookings yesterday with the withdrawal of VJ Smith and entrance of Tim Reed into the D7 State Senate race.

Make no mistake, there are changes coming and some shifting around the margins. But 90% of the races are well into launch sequence.

So, what should you look for?  Here’s my scorecard as we start a mad sprint to March 29th.  I’m counting 19 House Primaries, and 11 Senate primaries as of today. And that’s a VERY fluid number. I’d look for it to grow as opposed to shrinking.

And here’s what I have for legislative races – Part 1:

District 1

Senate:

Michael Rohl (R)
Unknown (D)?

House: 

Logan Manhart (R)
Tamara St. John (R)
And mmaaybe Jennifer Keintz (D)?

Is this the same District 1 that I remember? Used to be that we could not get a Republican elected there to save our lives until Tamara St. John and Michael Rohl. Now, so far in 2022, No Democrat has stepped forward against the two very strong Republicans, and the existing Dem Jennifer Keintz is rumored to not be running.

District 2

Senate:

Spencer Wrightsman (R)
Steve Kolbeck (R)

House:

Dan Sjaarda (R)
Jacob Schoenbeck (R)
David Kull (R)
Jeff Shawd (R)
Gary Leighton (D)

And here we have our first two Legislative primary races, and they will both be contests. Young Republican and Minnehaha GOP Activist Spencer Wrightsman versus former PUC Commissioner and Brandon City Councilman Steve Kolbeck for the Senate. And a plethora of candidates for the House. Former police chief and current council member David Kull and the politically experienced Jake Schoenbeck are the early favorites, but lots of time between now and June 7th.

District 3

Senate:

Al Novstrup (R)
Rachel Dix (R)

House:

Kaleb Weis (R)
Carl Perry (R)
Rick Rylance (R)
Brandei Schaefbauer (R)

Again, 2 more primaries. Long-time legislator Al Novstrup is being challenged by newcomer Rachel Dix. What’s interesting is that Rachel is receiving support from factions of the local GOP organization, and has a number of business connections as the local homebuilders director.  Al very well may have his hands full, as this is expected to be a battle.

4 people in the House primary, and I believe more to come. Weis and Perry are the incumbents, but aren’t necessarily viewed as strong retail campaigners. And into the race came former Dacotah bank executive Rick Rylance who is viewed as the 800lb gorilla with his community connections and ability to fundraise. Brandei Schaefbauer is a new entrant into the race, seemingly with a hard-right and anti-vax agenda, if you look at her twitter account.  I’d watch for this race to possibly grow another candidate or two.

District 4

Senate:

John Wiik (R)

House:

Fred Deutsch (R)
Adam Grimm (R)
Val Rausch (R)
Stephanie Sauder (R)

District 4 Senate might not even see a challenge for John Wiik, who has been a stable influence in the Senate.  He might pick up a dem, but I would be equally unsurprised if he doesn’t, and gets a bye this election.   The House provides us yet another packed primary.  Fred Deutsch is the at times controversial  incumbent, but he is the incumbent in this 4-way contest. Former House Speaker Val Rausch is running to return. And we also have the owner of the Hamlin County newspaper, Stephanie Sauder. I’d expect all three to run strong. Conservative artist Adam Grimm is also part of the pack.

District 5

Senate:

Lee Schoenbeck (R)

House:

Hugh Bartels (R)
Byron Callies (R)
Kahden Mooney (D)

First there was going to be a Republican primary in the House, but after filing papers, and a lot of smack talk, Lucas Kobat proved to be a lot of smoke, and went away.  There could be a primary in the Senate, as some of the antivaxxers and others would like to challenge Lee Schoenbeck, and they can try, but he’d view it as a happy opportunity to campaign more.

District 6

Senate:

Herman Otten (R)

House:

Aaron Aylward (R)
Ernie Otten (R)

I’m told there might be more entering the House race, but D6 is pretty quiet at the moment. Talk to me in 2 weeks.

District 7

Senate:

Tim Reed (R)
Julie Erickson (R)?

House:

Mellissa Heerman (R)
Matt Doyle (R)
Doug Post (R)

District 7 got crazy overnight. VJ Smith left the Senate Race, and House member Tim Reed jumped in. Then, I’m told a Julie Erickson, who I never heard of, has petitions out for Senate as well.  We’ll see if they come in, but this is a name ID race, and the former Mayor and House member is going to win this.  In the House, Mellissa Heerman from the School Board is the strongest contender for one of the two seats, followed by former State Rep Doug Post and Matt Doyle. I have heard another might jump in, a heavy hitter.

So, add 2 more primary elections to the total.

District 8

Senate:

Casey Crabtree (R)

House:

John Mills (R)
Marli Wiese (R)
Tim Reisch (R)

Crabtree resides in a safe seat, which just got safer as he added Kingsbury county – his hometown – to his district in redistricting.  And that House race went from boring to a hard fight over the course of the last week. Mills and Wiese were sure to be the candidates until former Sheriff, former Adjutant General, and former Corrections Secretary Tim Reisch was motivated to get in the race.  He will be running with intent.

District 9

Senate:

Mark Willadsen (R)
Brent Hoffman (R)
and maybe Rhonda Milstead (R)..?

House:

Bethany Soye (R)
Jesse Fonkert (R)

District 9 brings us another Senate Primary with House member Mark Willadsen running, former Iowa now South Dakota politico Brent Hoffman in the Senate race. And no one really knows what Rhonda Milstead is doing, but it’s expected she could be a third entrant into the contest. Right now incumbent House member Bethany Soye is being joined by Hartford development executive Jesse Fonkert in the House race. No primary there. Yet..

District 10

Senate:

Maggie Sutton (R)
Liz Larson (D)

House:

Erin Healy (D)
Kameron Nelson (D)
R’s yet to be determined

D10 will have one of the big Senate battles for the fall between Maggie Sutton and Liz Larson in what may prove to be a tough district for the GOP. Right now in the House, Incumbent Dem Erin Healy and newbie Dem Kameron Nelson are the only ones running as of today, but the GOP is not likely to give them a bye.

District 11

Senate:

Jim Stalzer (R)
Sheryl Johnson (D)

House: 

Chris Karr (R)
Brian Mulder (R)
Tyler Bonynge (R)
Roger Russell (R)

I’m guessing Sheryl Johnson will be easily dispatched by the GOP, again. No Dems in the House race, but an ever growing field, with House Appropriations Chair Chris Karr as the incumbent. I’d watch to see how big the donations are in this race get after the ending of this disastrous legislative session, where House Approps spent most of their time killing major economic development projects.

District 12

Senate:

Arch Beal (R)
Jessica Myers (D)

House: 

Cole Heisey (R)
Greg Jamison (R)
Gary BA Schuster (R)
Amber Arlint (R)
Kerry Loudenslager (R)
Erin Royer (D)

Arch Beal moves over to the Senate, and while there were rumors of a possible primary, they haven’t filed anything yet, so his race will be into the fall. Jessica Myers might try to give it a spirited run, but Arch Beal will swamp her with signs and advertising she can’t keep pace with.

And as for the House, who isn’t running?  Incumbent Greg Jamison is the early favorite, and I’d give the advantage to Amber Arlint, an insurance agent who comes from the “Stern Oil” Sterns.  Young Republican and 2020 D15 Candidate Cole Heisey may find himself challenged by his time spent helping the Proud Boys with their rally after the last election, as well as some statements he’s made regarding women.  Otherwise, the big chore for any challenger in this race will be to pull away from the pack.

District 13

Senate:

Jack Kolbeck (R)

House: 

Sue Peterson (R)
Richard Thomason (R)
Penny BayBridge (R)
Tony Venhuizen (R)

Here’s another case of boring Senate race (at the moment), and crazy House Primary.  Jack Kolbeck might be able to rest comfortably until he has to return to Pierre. For House members, Sue Peterson and Richard Thomason, they find themselves thrown into what might be the most competitive House primary in South Dakota as it is joined by Penny BayBridge, who nobody knows, except they say she wears a “Liberty” t-shirt up at session.

There’s also former Gubernatorial Chief of Staff, Regent, and attorney Tony Venhuizen. Tony brings a wealth of political experience to the race. And in terms of political and business connections, it doesn’t hurt when your father-in-law is former Governor Dennis Daugaard.

I can’t even fathom to pick the two who will come out of this. Except, probably not Penny.

District 14

Senate:

Larry Zikmund (R)
Matt Tysdal (D)

House: 

Taylor Rehfeldt (R)
Tyler Tordsen (R)
Gina Schiferl (R)
Wendy Jo Mamer (D)
Mike Huber (D)

Democrat Attorney Matt Tysdal is challenging Larry Zikmund, who should remain strong in the race. As for the House, another day, another primary.  Incumbent Taylor Rehfeldt and Tyler Tordsen are two extremely strong contenders. Newcomer Gina Schiferl is said to be a candidate coming from the Prairie Ripple group’s coterie of candidates. I just don’t see any scenario where it’s going to be anyone other than Taylor & Tyler emerging from the contest.  And the Democrats will be smoked like a kielbasa in the fall.

District 15

Senate:

Reynold Nesiba (D)
Dane Wagner (R)
Matt Rosburg (R)
Alan Spencer (R)

House: 

Linda Duba (D)
Kadyn Wittmann (D)
Joni Tschetter (R)

Here’s a crazy scenario. District 15, which has been Republican No man’s land for decades has a Senate Primary brewing. Dane Wagner, Matt Rosburg and Alan Spencer are said to be competing to run against Reynold Nesiba in the fall. Rosburg gave the House primary a run last year, so he has that experience under his belt. But Spencer has emerged as a strong business-connected candidate. A primary will be a good thing here for the Republican who emerges from the contest.

In the House, Republican Joni Tschetter has filed campaign committee paperwork in the last couple of days to run. If it’s the Joni I believe it is, she’s a nice lady. Also have word of a heavy hitter in the non-profit world running an an indy, but the name isn’t filed yet, so I’ll keep it to myself.  The GOP or the Indy could pick up one of the seats, diminishing Democrats by yet another seat.

And we will pause it here, and break up the text a bit, as I work on part two.