So, How did we end up here?
We’re several days after the election now. Not quite a week, but plenty of time to step back and unpack “what happened” in an election result that no one saw coming, save perhaps the top two candidates.
Braggadocio aside, opposed to anyone claiming it was a blowout, I’d hate to go do the research but this seemed to be a race where placement was fairly even split. What the campaigns should have done can only be viewed in hindsight.
If you look at the numbers, it really was a narrow band where everyone had their supporters. The low vote was Hansen at 21% and the high vote was Doeden at 31% That only represented a difference of 13k votes. Compare that to Jackley and Rounds, who posted nearly six times that between they and their opponents, winning with 79% and 76% of the vote. No one really broke from the pack in the Governor’s race, so it was a mad scramble to election day.
The fatal error in the race was that they underestimated Toby Doeden’s performance, and never went after him with any hard criticism.
If you think about it, it’s a lot like the Rounds – Kirby – Barnett Race, where Kirby and Barnett went after each other, but left generally left Mike alone. The major candidates used negative attacks to drive down the other guy’s totals and turnout, but like Mike Rounds, the attacks didn’t happen to Toby, so he benefitted from the hall pass.
In this case, Toby was thought of as the person they wanted to be in the runoff against, so you really didn’t see any commercials poking at him, while everyone else was busy going after each other. And, Doeden was able to level unanswered attacks at them, such as the “Jailhouse Jon Hansen – weak on crime attack,” and attacks on Dusty, Rhoden, etc.
Dusty was stung by votes he’s managed to get a pass from the voters on before, such as on the January 6 investigation, and a vote to reject an atypical funding mechanism for the border wall. Keep in mind that President Trump had actively endorsed Dusty for Congress since those votes. So the issues weren’t enough to make the president mad enough to sandbag Dusty then. But Dusty’s opponents used them to great effect now.
As for the front runner, in the contest they did not define Toby, so he had complete autonomy to define himself, and his commercials were effective in doing so. They might have been very rote, but he got them to sink in with the Trumpy faction of the Republican Party. And he held enough of the vote together to take the win.
69% of voters voted against Toby. 75% of voters voted against Larry Rhoden. How can they put themselves over the top?
Many of the traditional financial backers who backed Dusty’s campaign will shift over to Larry Rhoden if he asks, and many will just send checks in to ingratiate themselves. In fact, I’ve already been told that the money spigot has opened hard for our current Governor. But, it’s not as if money has been a barrier for Toby Doeden. But what is in play?
Right now there are nearly 45% of supporters of the other candidates in play. Interestingly, both of those other campaigns have the ground game that Rhoden and Doeden campaigns both largely lack. Rhoden had a shoestring staff with just a few volunteers. Doeden’s team is not exactly known for their experience in South Dakota politics.
So where are they going to get them in this mad 8 week scramble?
Jon Hansen is aligned to many of the NIMBY’s who effectively fought pipelines, and are now fighting Data Centers (at the same time they’re all posting to facebook with AI)
Dusty Johnson had his strike team, which is South Dakota’s gold standard, as they were the go to group for multiple candidates for petition signature gathering, door to door, sign and literature distribution, etc. If there was a need for a ground presence for the major state and federal races, as well as some legislative contests, they had it down to a science, and practiced those skills for more than 6 years.
Now, both of those teams are up for grabs.
While Toby Doeden claimed on election night Dusty’s people would go to him.. I’ve spoken with many of the team leaders personally, and no, those strike team members haven’t been on the phone with him, and they frankly laughed at the notion. Right now, they’re keeping their cards close. One or two have gravitated to Rhoden at this point, but otherwise many are keeping their powder dry.
Hansen’s people spent the last few months at war with the Doeden people on-line, so you don’t see him giving them any direction. Like with Dusty’s team, there are a few starting to drift in, but no major pronouncements yet. By the same token, some are looking at Rhoden as well.
I think there are several from both camps in the Sioux Falls area who are more interested in the mayoral runoff at the moment to help cleanse the palate before they jump back into the primary fray.
But the former ground level campaigns from those who were not successful are out there, and whomever can capture the interest of those retail level volunteers would help add an element to complete their campaign as they push forward in the remaining weeks.
Putting in the framework to “seal the deal” is an important first task for the two candidates in the runoff.
We will see in the coming weeks how well they are able to do that job.
What we need now is for SD to elect Doeden. That will demonstrate how wrong of a direction we are headed as a state. Only then will we realize we should have picked Dusty. Like it or not, that was and is the future of the party. Doeden and or Hansen will set SD back 20 years. Well, except for their bank account. The loons of Belle Fourche will carry the water.
They have no idea. Hang on SD.
I’d love to hear the back room conversations between Doeden and those who he heavily supported in ‘24, then those same politicians, after they win go all in for Hansen. Only now to come groveling back to doeden to plea for mercy. Odenbach is more than likely going to lose his leadership role. I’m no Doeden fan but he’s in complete control of that faction of the republican legislature. Can someone do a meme of Doeden standing over Odenbach, lapka,Gosch and the others with a caption that say “say my name b#%ches”.
I am waiting for Trump to endorse one of them
Tuesday was masterclass in SD politics. Here’s my take:
1. Negative Ads are the Nuclear Option in SD. Broadly speaking, negative ads work. However, they work better in large states where there is no hope of a personal connection between the candidates and the voters. Call it the KBR Rule (Kirby-Barnett-Rounds). Dusty’s PAC and Doeden’s PAC pulled the lever and carpet b0mbed their opponents. Dusty burned himself. Doeden was largely ignored and the fallout scorched everybody else. Doeden may claim to be the outsider, but he paid lots of money to bring the insiders to SD to run his campaign! Hence the negative ads. Rhoden didn’t pull the lever. If you know Larry, that was on purpose. He champions civility. He’s a rancher who knows his neighbors and his voters. He’s not relying on national consultants to tell him where to attack. He’s appealing to his record; it’s the speech he gave at every LDD.
2. The handshake campaign is legit, but it has a ceiling. Hanson campaigned with almost no money, lots of time, an active running mate, and endless micro-events in living rooms and Pizza Ranches. In a field with a sitting U.S. Congressman and the top vote getter walking away with 31 percent, a 21 percent showing on his budget is a real accomplishment. However, with the money in play and two candidates deploying the national negative strategy, Hanson had no power to respond.
3. Fake it ’til You Make it. In terms of endorsements, Doeden didn’t have very many, and especially few notable endorsements. That didn’t stop him from faking it! If Toby “copy and paste” Doeden could put your face on a post card, he did it. His mailers and campaign signs have Trump’s name and face all over them. Did Trump or Jackley endorse Doeden? Of course not, but who cares. He did it anyway, and he got 31% for his troubles.
4. Is a loss really a loss? We can’t say this yet, but speculation is Hanson’s considering turning the gubenatorial loss into a winning campaign for Attorney General. Hanson hasn’t conceded yet, which I find incredible. Will the delegates accept that, and how will Hoffman or Russell respond?
Far right conspiracy theorists made up the majority of Hansens 21%. Say he runs and wins AG. What will he do when he’s forced to uphold state and federal constitutional law that goes against everything he promised the loonies he would do? They’ll throw him out with the bath water faster than they turned on Monae. She too realized her promises were not plausible and that elected officials have to follow the law like everyone else.
I got a little bit sick seeing a comparison of Doeden to Governor and Senator M Michael Rounds. What???
Rounds didn’t just rise up from nowhere to run for the state’s top job.
Rounds had long service and a good record in his private sector career in insurance.
Rounds had five consecutive terms as State Senator from District 24, he was also GOP whip and Majority Leader.
In 2002 Rounds entered the race with little fanfare, while Mark Barnett’s party regulars and Steve Kirby’s moral overgodders were vying for advantage and embarrassing themselves with every sort of cheap mudslinging tactic. Rounds gained the advantage in one debate: on the question of state support for ethanol fuel development, Barnett and Kirby were trying to top each other pandering to the ag sector and promising the moon. Rounds said his choice was was to let ethanol compete and prove itself in the marketplace, and customers would decide if it gets support. Voters heard him clearly and signaled that they were tired of poses and empty promises.
Rounds won the primary handily and won the governorship.
By comparison, Doeden shoved himself upward into the race with his private money, learned to emulate the MAGA political method, and has floated Trumpian empty promises to lock onto a voter demo who responds to this.
There’s very little comparison to Rounds years of service and preparation to serve, and Doeden’s emerging at the mansion door, in a fog of misdirection and swamp water.
Rhoden took a shaky ship and quickly righted it with class and confidence when he assumed office from Noem. He’s put in the hard work too, and deserves your loyalty and support.