Emerson College/KELOland poll has Governor Kristi Noem over Smith by nearly 20 point lead, 56% to 37%

@SoDakCampaigns

Now these seem to be numbers we can take more seriously.

In a poll taken with telephone respondents on October 19-21 (versus the SDSUS e-mail in poll), KELOland is reporting this morning that Governor Kristi Noem has an utterly commanding lead among South Dakotans on a basis of 56% to 37% for Democrat Jamie Smith.  But no matter who you ask, except for a small group of Democrats, just about everyone expects the Governor will still be the Governor on November 9th.

Incumbent Republican Gov. Kristi Noem is the planned choice for 56% of voters compared to 37% for Smith. Three percent plan to vote for Libertarian Tracy Quint. Most voters have already selected their candidate as 4% are undecided.

However they planned to vote, 74% of the voters expect Noem to get re-elected. Forty-five percent of the registered Democrats expect Noem to win while 91% of Republicans do and 68% of Independents/Other party do.

Go read the entire poll here at Keloland.com.

14 thoughts on “Emerson College/KELOland poll has Governor Kristi Noem over Smith by nearly 20 point lead, 56% to 37%”

  1. This can’t be true, because I’ve been following various Dems on Twitter and they tell me this race is within three points. They tell me Kristi is unpopular within her own party because the misogynists won’t vote for her. Despite Kristi falling behind at parades because she’s constantly being stopped for selfies, that is just small minority and means nothing. These numbers are wrong, just ask Dem Twitter.

  2. Exactly how I called this months ago. Many of his voters will be too toasted to vote anyways.

  3. I think he would have a chance if he wasn’t droning on about corruption while screwing-up (let’s give them the benefit of the doubt) his filings.

    Watching his campaign messaging it doesn’t seem to emanate from a reasonable and well thought out platform.

    Smith’s campaign messaging is like watching chickens chasing grasshoppers on a hot day.

  4. Wait, I thought the SDGOP was shaking in their boots and Kisti was nervous? That darn mainstream media got me again.

  5. More South Dakotans donated to Smith than donated to Noem. That says something. Kristi is working for more people out of state than she is in state. That’s no surprise looking at all the campaigning and time she spends out of state. Smith has more SD donors on one page than Noem has on 10 pages.

    1. “More South Dakotans donated to Smith than donated to Noem.”

      No, they didn’t.

      “Smith has more SD donors on one page than Noem has on 10 pages.”

      She also has 400 more pages of donors than he has.

      2. Count em up. More south dakotans gave to Smith than noem. There are pages in noems report that don’t even have a South Dakotan on them. A large majority of Noems money came from out of state and very little of Smiths did.

        1. “A large majority of Noems money came from out of state and very little of Smiths did.”

          This is true, but it doesn’t mean more South Dakotans donated to him than to Noem.

          She has raised so much more money than him, that even though most of it is from out of state, she still has a larger number of donors from within South Dakota than he does.

  6. Unlike the SDSU “poll” from a couple weeks ago, the crosstabs and the topline number in this poll actually match up with the early voting data (53% Republican, 30% Democrat, and 17% independent).

    So if Noem gets:
    83% of the 53% Republican votes, that’s 44% overall.
    17% of the 30% Democrat votes, that’s 5% overall.
    39% of the 17% independent votes, that’s 7% overall.

    44 + 5 + 7 = 56%.

    And that’s the ballgame.

    A few other things to recommend this poll over the SDSU “poll”:

    2.5% margin of error, rather than 4%.

    1500 respondents, rather than 565.

    And they contacted voters using multiple methods rather than doing everything with an online panel:

    “Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, a voter registration list of emails, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.”

    If, someday, SDSU ever wants to start doing real polls instead of liberal propaganda, this is how to do it.

    1. I completely agree! It sounded to me like SDSU conducted this poll as a teaching tool for introductory Statistics so students could have a rudimentary taste of polling. That’s fine — until they decided to publish the results as fact. Even beyond the smaller sample size, there’s a huge potential for inherent bias in their results. In particular, Self-Selection bias and Sampling Bias come to mind; I wouldn’t be surprised if there was Priming Bias as well…..

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