In the post below this one (as written yesterday), I had scolded the Argus Leader’s political reporter for her ridiculously uncritical ‘reporting’ about Democrats rebuilding their party, while overlooking some pretty egregious problems the opposition party faces in the impending election.
Problems such as not fielding a Congressional candidate for the first time in decades (despite two people attempting to step up to the challenge). However, that problem of organizational collapse is perpetuated and even more significant for Democrats when it comes to the state legislature.
Earlier this year, Democrats yielded what might be a record low number of candidates for the State Senate to begin with, and after withdrawals and replacements have finally settled on a number of candidates they are fielding for the legislature’s 35 upper chamber seats – 17. Democrats are actually starting with a minority of legislative seats in the Senate, guaranteeing they’re in a bad position to start. But then it gets worse.
Because once you start looking at the head to head matchups, and handicapping them, it’s easy to see they’re going to continue to take it in the shorts.
|
District |
Name |
Party |
Competitive? |
R or D |
|
District 01 |
Susan Wismer |
DEM |
yes |
D |
|
District 06 |
Nancy Kirstein |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 09 |
Suzanne “Suzie” Jones Pranger |
DEM |
unk |
R |
|
District 10 |
Nichole Cauwels |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 11 |
Tom Cool |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 12 |
Jessica Meyers |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 13 |
Elizabeth “Liz” Larson |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 14 |
Timothy Reed |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 15 |
Reynold F. Nesiba |
DEM |
unk |
D |
|
District 17 |
Ailee Johns |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 18 |
Jordan Foos |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 21 |
Dan Kerner Andersson |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 26 |
Troy Heinert |
DEM |
yes |
D |
|
District 27 |
Red Dawn Foster |
DEM |
unk |
D |
|
District 32 |
Michael Calabrese |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 33 |
Ryan A. Ryder |
DEM |
no |
R |
|
District 34 |
George Nelson |
DEM |
no |
R |
Literally, of the 17 remaining races, I count only 4 of them that would likely favor Democrats.
And unlike in previous years, I would not necessarily hand those to Democrats. In most of the races, Democrats are going to get their tails kicked. The seats they hold now are likely the only competitive contests on their side of the aisle, and all of them are being challenged by Republicans.
Susan Wismer is viewed as having worn out her welcome in her district, and vulnerable this year. Reynold Nesiba has a rare challenger, Troy Heinert is facing a second run from Joel Koskan who knows how to build on where he fell short last election, and Red Dawn Foster may find herself dealing with overdue questions about her residency.
Democrats should not consider these races as settled, and will have to work to keep what little they have in the State Senate, except not with anything close to the network they had enjoyed in the last election. They’re going to struggle to hold onto what they have, much less take back ground that they had once ceded to the GOP.
A rebuilding year? If you consider battening down the hatches for the coming storm, sure.
But not one where they’re going to accomplish anything substantive.
Can you list the Republicans who are running against them…might as well give our people some name ID, this might be the most the Dems ever get 🙂
I would LOVE to see the Dems end up losing all the races in the Senate to send them a clear message that we don’t want them in this state at all. This is NOT the party of the 80s and 90s or even really 2000s. This party is insane and cleary a Communist party. Come SD let’s vote all these morons out
I agree with PP: Democrats will probably “struggle to hold onto what they have, much less take back ground that they had once ceded to the GOP.” Today, Republicans enjoy a decisive 30-5 S.D. Senate supermajority. The Dems might gain 1 seat in November, increasing their senate representation by 20 percent. Perhaps that’s why Seiler and Kazcke feel “optimistic” and note “a sense of commitment and involvement going into November.” Anything is possible. Even the Washington Generals hit baskets occasionally. But the much more likely outcome is a Republican slam dunk.
I count 5 real Democrat senate candidates and I think they end up with 3 or 4 seats. Real question, what if the Indies and Libertarians win a couple and form a coalition – do they get to be the minority party instead?
Solid post. If SD Republicans work hard & work smart, the party should gain SD Senate seats. Putting it another way, if every Republican candidate works as hard & smart as Lee Schoenbeck, the party will increase its senate majority. If, however, the GOP rests on its laurels/ makes dumb mistakes, the party could lose seats and take an embarrassing step backward. Regardless, the legislative majority is secure.
yes
The story at the end of August was about the SDDP’s finances and paying for offices/staff, why would I talk about their candidates when the story wasn’t about that, and I already reported in May that the Democrats didn’t have a congressional candidate and had a much lower number of legislative candidates than Republicans? I have a master’s degree in political journalism from one of the best journalism schools in the country, you’re not exactly making yourself look great when you try to accuse me of not knowing what I’m doing. https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2020/01/14/election-2020-whos-running-for-south-dakota-state-legislature-president-congress/4455255002/
Lisa: I’m sorry, but if you have a Masters in Journalism, I didn’t see it reflected in your reporting in this story and many of you others. This story looked like a SD Democratic Party press release with a few other statements thrown in. And your liberal bias was clear in most of your other stories…what you wrote about and what you DIDN’T write about. Do some soul searching back in Minnesota. Maybe give up print journalism. It’s a dinosaur anyway.
So your expertise is not just about your great grandfather being elected to something, but about where you went to school?
Well, boo on us for thinking that your stories occasionally exhibited bias towards democrats. We’re just too ignorant to understand that we should have been enlightened.
A master’s in political journalism….did you keep your receipts? Maybe you can get your money back?
ok — that’s the best comment post of the week 🙂
Lisa
Like most journalist these days, your Liberal/Leftist opinion is all over this story. The Democrat party is a complete dumpster fire these days and is full of raving lunatics. If you had an ounce of Objectivity your stories would read more like “what the heck is going on with the Dem party” vs an advertisement for them. Real honest journalism is dead and everyone in the country is waking up to the fact most of you are propagandists for the Socialist/Communist Democrat party. I hope you kept your receipt for that degree as I would ask for a refund as the person above stated. Happy trails to you in your move to the People’s Republic of Minnesota. Adios Comrade